TL0 trade ideas
Tesla - The Failed All Time High Breakout!Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) will reject the all time high first:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Tesla was actually not able to create a sustainable all time high breakout and if a stock doesn't move up, it will come down. However Tesla still remains absolutely bullish and is now starting to create a textbook break and retest which will eventually still lead to new all time highs.
Levels to watch: $400, $280
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
2/24/25 - $tsla - High on watchlist to own...2/24/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:TSLA
High on watchlist to own...
- fundamentally, there's a lot of "if this" priced into the stock, there's no denying it
- even round up '26 FCF from 8 bn (current expectation) to 10 bn and you're at a 1% yield. but also acknowledge... here it is again... "if, then" it's also growing at 100% yoy, and likely dirty cheap too
- seeing that grok 3 deployment, the DOGE work, rockets, video game, edgelord X... let's get this straight, Elon is
1/ not someone to bet against
2/ continues to deliver surprises across the board
3/ is at and defining the intersection of AI, robots, energy and US-first policy
- so while we can look at multiples all day, i think NASDAQ:TSLA remains a bet on what Elon can deliver in a 10Y context with a high discount rate.
- if robotaxi, optimus... solar roofs (y'all know my view on solar as % of generation) all come together nicely, there's little doubt in my mind that he's right, NASDAQ:TSLA is probably the largest publicly traded company, and make up a number, $10 tn+.
- so if we reduce the probability wave into a duality, "success" and "fail" and nothing in between (for simplicity, albeit an imperfect representation of reality).
- if success is $10 tn in 10 years
- and fail is a bagel ($0) in 10 years
- and we use a LT investment discount rate of 10% ("low enough" to capture the market's current view of stocks at 3-4% for megacap, moat/ validated names but low, but "high enough" to also factor in failure, waiting period etc. etc.)... that $10 tn in today's terms would be 10/(1.1^10) = 3.9 tn. so...
3.9 tn * 10% + 0 tn * 90% = 3.9 tn.
market might be saying... how about it's a 20-25% chance of success and nothing in between. or the market could be saying 10% chance of this success but also many scenarios in between that also give us 1 tn, 2 tn etc. of value. and as a result, the "real" valuation today perhaps does sit closer to that $1tn valuation.
the conclusion, for me, is that technicals matter more for a name like NASDAQ:TSLA in the short-term (like they do CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) than in the long-term as these fundamental factors are delivered (or not) and cash is generated (or not).
the gap fills in the low $200 do catch my eye. those are pretty large gaps. ESPECIALLY the post-election gap, which was more of an "elon benefits from being close to trump" and not necessarily (*necessarily* - though i see it both ways) a speed-up of these above mentioned fundamental factors.
I'd be eyeing the mid $200s to get involved again if/when.
i do think the stock is a LT buy at today's levels. but i just don't like the R/R given the drawdown potential (based on above logic) compared to other opportunities in my book today, namely NASDAQ:NXT , CRYPTOCAP:BTC , NYSE:UBER , $tsm.
but i'll be watching carefully and i'm willing to jump in higher if i need to. that's cool too. just not yet.
V
TSLA is targeting 295 & 330 & 430Hello Traders,
I'm sharing a long position on TSLA, and I'll explain my reasoning below.
Entry Price: 223
Stop-Loss: 172
1st Target: 295
2nd Target: 380
Reason 1: The price has rebounded from the lower deviation of the uptrend channel (grey), not the lower deviation of the downtrend channel (blue). It is now targeting the upper deviation resistance line of the uptrend channel (grey) at 295.
Reason 2: A cup & handle pattern is progressing and will likely be confirmed if the price closes a weekly bar above 253 and the target will be around 330,380 and maybe 430 as shown below
NASDAQ:TSLA
TESLA Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 022225Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 349/61.80%
Chart time frame: B
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress: B
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) 61.80% support
D) Hit the bottom
E) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
TSLA Harmonic Elliott Wave and Hurst's Cyclic AnalysisI view the move from April to December 2024 as wave A of 3. Since then, we have been in wave B of 3, forming a double zigzag correction. Currently, we are in the final stages of completing this correction and preparing for a strong bullish move as wave C of 3.
To estimate the bottom, we analyze the retracement of wave A of 3. A 0.586 retracement suggests a level of 285, while a 0.618 retracement points to 274.
From a cycle perspective, the April 2024 trough marked an 18-month cycle low. We are now nearing the completion of the first 40-week cycle within this 18-month cycle, with the trough expected in the first week of March.
TESLA Expected Growth! BUY!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on TESLA and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 337.50 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 382.40
Safe Stop Loss - 313.62
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TESLA: The best buy entry is here. $600 long term.Tesla is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 37.443, MACD = -16.180, ADX = 38.976) as it is expanding the bearish wave of the Channel Up, under the 1D MA50. As the 1D RSI rebounded at 30.000 and the 1D MACD is close to a BUllish Cross, we see a striking resemblance with the lows of August 5th 2024 and April 22nd 2024. With the help of the 1D MA100, we expect the price to start making a slow recovery. Go long on this bullish wave, TP = 600.
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TSLA swing trade ideaTSLA had the same setup today as other posts I have made. I have already cashed out on this position and leaving only few. Intraday profits were nice and intraday targets were met, so this trade is risk free as first target has already been reached. This seems to be a long and time consuming trade but the reward is there. Rejection from weekly sellside ineffieciency buyside imbalance with further displacement in ltf will give further confluence on the trade. There maybe entry opportunities next week as price may retrace to inefficiencies. The draw seems to be pretty obvious on the weekly time frame. We will need to see if it delivers, if it does deliver how and when.
TSLA Short - IntradayWith bearish indices, and displacement in TSLA on H4 time frame the narrative was bearish sentiment from that point of interest. As soon as I saw rejection from the POI, I waited for confirmation of my setup in the 15m and entry on the 5m, with 1: 3.3 risk to reward. The RR target was based on the sell stops resting below creating liquidity with Previous Day Low and Sellside Liquidity.