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MARATHON OIL DL 1MARATHON OIL DL 1MARATHON OIL DL 1

MARATHON OIL DL 1

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MRO Short Term BearishOn November 07, 2017 MRO had a high wick reach $16.59 before closing down for the day. I believe this to be a good resistance line for now due to that same price range (give or take a few pennies) acting as Resistance in April 2017, March 2017, February 2017, November 2016, September 2016, August 2016, and September 2015; as well as acting as Support briefly in October and November 2015. Even though the past couple of days (November 09-10, 2017) have seen green candlesticks , they have been moving down in price. I purchased a December Put, Strike 17, on 11-09-17 for $1.65 (the spread at the time of purchase was $1.62-$1.65). The Stock price at time of purchase was $15.70. $14.12-$14.16 has been a general line of Support in August 2015, Resistance in December 2015, Support again in September through November 2016, Support in March and May 2017, and then acting as Resistance for a couple weeks in October 2017. Due to that activity I believe it possible for MRO to retrace to that area again; and because of that I have targeted that area as my sell point. I expect it to take no longer than three weeks to reach that area of Support. If you draw lines of Support at $14.12/$14.16 and Resistance at $16.60ish I can see a channel/rolling pattern from August to November 2016 and briefly from March to April 2017. If MRO does hit my estimated Support I will wait a few days to see if once again it rises in price to repeat that pattern and becomes ripe for a "double dip," or the opportunity to enter a Bullish/Call play almost immediately after exiting a Bearish/Put play.
NYSE:MROShort
by AROD01
1
MROWith oil in a strong downtrend I am taking a contrarian stance with a bullish call debit spread in Marathon. IVR is terribly low and it is not the Tasty Trade way of selling premium. MRO was down another 3% today and IVR is 10.4% when I purchased the 12/15 call DEBIT spread all the way out til Jan. for $1.18 I looked at other oil companies BP, RDS, COP but avoided them due to foreign complications such as Brexit exit and such. XOP and OIH had higher IVR which makes buying options less attractive. The overall market is way overdue for a sell off, so I stayed in smaller UL and will add to this position up to two more times. That is also why I went so far out in time. I am thinking Saudi Arabia will look to manipulate the markets in order to spin off Aramco and a possibility Venezuela could have some disruption of its oil flow with all the chaos. I am already long and wrong in PXD. This stock has gone lower in the not so distant past so there is some risk but my overall portfolio is short so this may balance beta weighted deltas.
NYSE:MROLong
by dluxe23
1
‘Margin of safety’; accumulate towards a $9 cost basisMarathon Oil Corp. $11.31 July 13th 2017 Energy has underperformed the S&P 500 by -21% year-to-date. Marathon is down -35% and trades at a 22% discount to tangible book value, despite being relatively well positioned to withstand lower crude oil prices (figure 1). At 6.2x EV/EBITA (9.0x sector average), there are signs that patient investors will be rewarded by the company’s current valuation. Tactical Summary Speculative positioning: Speculative positioning is extremely short, for only the third time in 15 years (not pictured) . Notably, the current extreme has set a new record, surpassing even the pessimism that surrounded the stock in 2016 when crude oil was trading 40% below current levels. This is a bullish signal for contrarian investors. Patient money flows: Real money investors are accumulating at current levels (not pictured) . Although the stock declined further following a similar condition in 2015, the current setup has a coincident extreme in speculative positioning, which was not the case then. The last (and only) time there was similar confirmation was in 2016, when the stock registered a 14-year low before trebling over the next 9 months. Technical analysis: Although momentum is currently negative, the RSI oscillator is oversold on a weekly and daily basis which suggests that price may begin to stabilise (see chart) . A new regime of outperformance would be confirmed by a crossing of the two moving averages shown in the ratio chart in figure 6. Trade management: Price is currently around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the Feb ‘16 low (see chart) . With fundamental value present, investors may look to establish a position here and accumulate towards a basis of $9.25, coincident with the 78.6% pivot. Whilst our valuation ‘margin of safety’ would have grown a further 20%, a break below this level would suggest a retest of the 2016 low ($6.50). Disclaimer: This report is compiled for professional investors and intended for the named person's use only. It may contain confidential, proprietary or legally privileged material. Data is provided for informational purposes and should not be considered sufficient to base an investment decision on. This information should not be regarded as a solicitation or recommendation of any particular security or to engage in any trading strategy.
NYSE:MROLong
by JamesHelliwell
MRO - Into the buyers zone.At the mentoring group we called it a "Mountain". To me, this is just a buyers zone. But it doesn't matter how you call it. It matters, how you use it, and what you are aware of, IF you use it. Because this zone could get washed in a blink... That's why it is always a good idea to first observe, and then let the market yell at you, if there is a potential entry showing up. My guess (...umpf...guesswork...very bad!) is, that it will trade into this zone, come back and play along with the rules of the forks. This means, it will jump above the centerline, make a retest and then picking up the new direction to the north. Let's see...let's be patient...let's observe. P!
NYSE:MRO
by Tr8dingN3rd