WMT Walmart LONG Swing TradeWMT beat earnings by 10% and has been upgraded for targets as a result.
The chart shows heavy relative volume ( 4X the running average) reacting to the earnings.
WMT has a 10% upside to the resistance of sell order blocks above.
WMT is now set up for a long swing trade with either the stock or call options at
an expiration a bit before the next earnings.
WMT trade ideas
Walmart WMT Beats Earnings - Walmart beats on earnings estimates.
- Technically: price gapped up to begin to close the gap that was create with the profit miss on Earnings in May (Gap started at $147)
- Analysts price targets sit around $145 (median).
- Price got to a high of $140 today.
- From what many are calling a potential bottom for WMT, the stock is up 19%~
WMT - Walmart - Would you short this?Here's some detail on my short idea on Walmart. I'm giving you plenty of time to plan for this. We've seen a clear impulse on this little guy but I expect that things have stopped in late 2020 as we've been moving sideways for about 18+ months. I expect this to continue for about 2 more months. The closer we get to 21 months (if you've been following me, you know the significance of that number), the better off we are for a top here.
Now, to the technicals. I have a few different measurements here:
1. Measuring the wave 5 top (around Nov-Dec 2020) to the wave (a) buttom (around Mar 2021), we see an expanded target around $161 to $165
2. Trend based fib extension measuring from the wave (a) bottom (Mar 2021) to the wave c top around August 2021 and the pullback to around Mar 2022 gets us a 100% extension target around $159 and a 123.6% target around $167. Both of these are corrective targets based on the current structure.
3. The measurement noted in point 1 above gives us an expanded flat target around $120.
Timeframe for hitting a major top on WMT will be mid to late June and I will be looking at LEAP style short positions around that timeframe. Set a calendar reminder to come back here in 2 months and we'll see where we are.
I could be way off with this, but I'm going to be bearish on WMT for at least a year after this expanded target gets hit.
WMT-SELL strategyThe guidance had come out and we traded below 119.00 coming from 132.00. This was a gap down, and the three day rule, plus we are already NEW MOON phase, suggest likely a move to test 117.00 support line.
Strategy is SELL current 121.50-122.00 and take profit near 117.00. Re sell if confirmed broken below 117 as we would be going enroute 103.00-105.00.
Walmart Bottoms Relative to S&P 500This chart shows three things. First, the candles show how Walmart performs relative to the broader market (S&P 500 ETF - SPY). Second, it shows how that ratio changes as the unemployment rate goes up (light blue line). Third, it shows the 25-year support line of Walmart's relative performance to SPY (red line).
Notice how Walmart's relative performance goes down as the unemployment rate goes down, and goes up as the unemployment rate goes up. Walmart typically fares relatively better during economic downturns presumably because more people seek out bargain prices.
Also notice that, following its inflation warning, Walmart's performance relative to SPY is near its 25-year support line. One could reasonably argue a couple of things: (1) We are possibly near a bottom in terms of Walmart's underperformance to the S&P 500, and (2) If this correlation is predictive, the unemployment rate may soon start to rise.
Just remember that this is a relative chart, so it does not mean that the price of Walmart's stock will go up from here. It just means that Walmart may soon begin to shift from underperforming the broader market to outperforming (if the stock market is falling, then Walmart may fall too but by a lesser magnitude). This shift can take weeks to months, but once underway, can last for years.
While I am not providing financial advice, and encourage everyone to fully analyze the risks of their own trades, I am considering adding Walmart to my portfolio as a form of recession hedging. I am waiting for the possibility of Walmart to fall as much as 10% more in terms of its relative performance to the broader market (SPY), once it consolidates there I will likely begin accumulation. To read more about why I think a recession is coming you can click the link below in the related ideas section.
WMT:Consumer spending declining?Walmart
Short Term - We look to Sell at 127.66 (stop at 133.76)
This stock has recently been in the news headlines. They issued a profit warning ahead of earnings. Our outlook is bearish. A firmer opening is expected to challenge bearish resolve. Resistance is located at 128.00 and should cap gains to this area. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Our profit targets will be 112.83 and 108.00
Resistance: 136.00 / 145.80 / 160.00
Support: 112.80 / 105.00 / 85.00
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WMT-SELL strategyThe after market already is trading @ 118.66 close a large decline. The stoch RSI already was negative during the trading day as a note.
It is likely we will test little lower, perhaps 113-115 area before market may stall a little. The NEW MOON phase we are going to be in will keep pressure on stocks in general. Ultimately we see WMT somewhere 100-102.
WMT SELL +++ Next support $108 rangeAlready have a position, posted couple days ago. WMT was overbought on several time frame and chart indicators and yet continued to rise in the bear market rally to my chagrin. WMT cuts profit outlook after hours. Who could've possibly seen this coming!? WMT I have been in and out of twice since posting on July 12th where I didn't think WMT could go past $130. Seems it made it to $133, I am overloaded on puts and as soon as this morning I was calculating my breakeven point with only 9 days left til expiration. $108 I believe is next strong support. WMT printed $118's after hours and will likely see under $110 by next week this will likely be a weight on the market tomorrow along with the FED meeting Tues/ Wednesday. GL.
Rectangle//OUCH!Must have been some really bad news WMT decided to spit out when perhaps it did not have to.
I suppose they were being honest?
I am not sure exactly what on earth it was but I plan to find out.
No recommendation/ES if price breaks support of lower trendline.
I am guessing this will affect other stocks in the sector like TGT, maybe even COST. Dunno )o: COST has a borderline bearish chart right now.
WMTAnother earnings play....
One thing I noticed today is that they pumped retail. I think it's doing rangebound trading here so a short term opportunity. Earnings will suck, wage inflation will eat into their profits.
Keep an eye on all of the big tankers from last quarter like TGT, etc. Plenty of room for them to do another huge gap down, just look at long term charts. They need to get rid of the parabola.