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Euro-Bund Future

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BUND trade ideas

#Bund bird view - once 159 goes, the yield blows- Ichimoku setup has bearish bias, but for a confirmed strategic bearish Kumo breakout it has to fulfil one more criteria: a close below the last reaction low! - A lower low close would also break the 4 years long bullish trendline, which was touched during last few weeks. - Please note that this is the chart of the continous (non tradable) contract, which includes the discount and premium changes between each tradable front contract change. Most of people don't understand the reason behind these gaps between certain contracts. This is mainly due to the Cheapest To Delivery bond calculation process. Why is it important? Because now we are trading FGBLM7 (June contract) at 159,95, but the next tradable FGBMU7 (September contract) trades 150 points higher, at 161,45. If the triangle will not break on the lower side until June contract maturity, then by contract change time (8/June) the continous contract chart could technically spike, while the underlying 10y bond yield may not change at all. - Anyway, even from this continous chart it looks like some consolidation has started above 159. Not the best time and level to enter shorts. If June contract could move up to 162,50 +/-, there we'll have to look for a sell signal. - The absolute key level will be 159+ (which tradable front contract will break it, we don't know) What we know is that the bond markets are in a bubble. So is the German bond market, especially on the shorter maturities, which still trade at negative yields! This bubble will burst once, and then the move will be quick and dramatic. Maybe ECB will try to contain it, maybe that's why they are leaking the possibility of a rate hike before they start taper their QE program. That would mean they could still support an artificial bid side to Euro bonds, just at a higher set yield level. If this is really their goal, then probably this trend will break finally by around end of summer, beginning of Autumn this year. Keep your eyes on it! And always look for a sell signal only! Bubbles we don't like to buy!
FX:BUND
by Kumowizard
Taper trouble ahead?Weekly: - Ichimoku neutral, with bearish bias ahead. Price, Tenkan and Kijun are all in a thick Kumo, and major bullish trendline is not too far away. - Heikin-Ashi shows indecision for the third week. Actually for 4 weeks now in a row price couldn't break above Kijun Sen at 163,77. haDelta and haOscillator are still above their mid lines. - MACD shows consolidation. - EWO is neutral Daily: - Ichimoku setup is still bullish, but there is serious problem with momentum: failure above 164, and a lower high. Price is testing Kijun Sen again. Shuld it close below, bulls will be in a deep trouble! Real selling pressure would come beow 162. - Heikin-Ashi reversed to bearish with haDelta and haDelta+ below zero now. - EWO and MACD are drifting lower, but they are not yet bearish. Will ECB save this idiot bond bubble once more, or is the big time closer then we think?
FX:BUNDShort
by Kumowizard
Indecision at equilibrium now, a big short laterPlease note this is a weekly chart! - Ichimoku: Neutral, with minor bearish bias ahead. Price is at equilibrium level. - Uptrend is still valid, but trendline is quite close, matching bottom of spot Kumo cloud at 160+ - Heikin-Ashi candle and indicators show indecision for the second week. Swing bullish price action stopped at/below Kijun Sen - EWO is back to zero, slightly bearish still. We may see few more weeks (months?) of some choppy price action in the neutral zone. But if you read the news carefully, European fiscal stimulus starting from Germany will slowly become a reality. This means ECB will step back and will start normalizing rates this year. I guess you all remember what happened with US Treasury market last year... well, same will happen to the German bond curve. European bond short is going to be one of the biggest trades of 2017! Just wait for the proper signal. Until hold only small short BOBL and Bund exposure.
FX:BUNDShort
by Kumowizard