CN50--China risingBull flag on 4h chart will carry price back to test long term downtrend line. Possible bottoming pattern.
CHN50 trade ideas
CHN50 to breakdown?CHN50 - 24h expiry
The bearish engulfing candle on the 4 hour chart is negative for sentiment.
The primary trend remains bearish.
Short term momentum is bearish.
We look for losses to be extended today.
A break of the recent low at 11356 should result in a further move lower.
We look to Sell a break of 11345 (stop at 11465)
Our profit targets will be 11045 and 10965
Resistance: 11430 / 11500 / 11574
Support: 11356 / 11300 / 11200
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Chinese Stocks: Government-Backed Rally Boosts New Year OptimismAs China ushers in the Year of the Wood Dragon this weekend, government-backed initiatives are breathing life into the country's struggling stock market.
The Fall: A Crisis of Confidence
In the lead-up to the Chinese New Year, Chinese stocks faced significant headwinds, prompting a decline that wiped out nearly $2 trillion in market value. Several factors contributed to this downturn, including a lack of confidence among global investors, concerns over economic growth, an unresolved property sector crisis, and diplomatic tensions between Beijing and Washington.
Investors, once enticed by China's rapid economic growth, found themselves grappling with three years of grinding losses. The benchmark MSCI China stock index has plummeted more than 60% from its early 2021 peak, reflecting the challenging environment faced by the Chinese stock market.
The Bounce: A Glimpse of Optimism Amidst Challenges
However, as the Year of the Wood Dragon dawns, there are signs of a potential turnaround. Recent market dynamics indicate a rebound, with small-cap and tech companies leading the charge. The China Securities Regulatory Commission's commitment to guide institutional investors and encourage share buybacks has injected a sense of optimism into the market.
Amidst the long-term downtrend reflected in the China 50 index, recent price action suggests the possibility of a more sustained bounce. The market has broken its pattern of lower swing highs and lower swing lows, establishing new higher swing lows and higher swing highs. Notably, the price has surged above the 50-day moving average for the first time in over four months, signalling a potential shift in momentum.
Technical indicators add weight to the argument for a potential market rebound. Bullish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), where the RSI forms higher swing lows while the market trended lower, hints at underlying strength. Furthermore, the Parabolic SAR has moved below the price due to a recent rally, suggesting a change in the short-term trend.
While traders should be mindful that established trends take considerable time and effort to change, the recent positive developments bring a glimmer of hope as the Chinese New Year festivities begin.
China CN50 Index: Daily Candle Chart
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CN50 to continue in the upward move?CHN50 - 24h expiry
There is no indication that the rally is coming to an end.
The RSI is trending higher.
Although we remain bullish overall, a correction is possible with plenty of room to move lower without impacting the trend higher.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels.
A move through 11500 will confirm the bullish momentum.
We look to Buy at 11350 (stop at 11250)
Our profit targets will be 11600 and 11650
Resistance: 11500 / 11600 / 11650
Support: 11400 / 11350 / 11300
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
As Predicted, China Markets Breaking Out of the Bullish TriangleAs posted 2 days ago, the Chinese market was forming a bullish triangle, for the first time in months. Today, it broke above it. This breakout could move their market much higher.
CHN50 to see a temporary move higher?CHN50 - 24h expiry
There is no indication that the selloff is coming to an end.
Further downside is expected.
Short term RSI is moving lower.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels.
A move through 11000 will confirm the bearish momentum.
We look to Sell at 11100 (stop at 11200)
Our profit targets will be 10850 and 10800
Resistance: 11100 / 11150 / 11200
Support: 11000 / 10900 / 10850
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Still a good arbitrage: Long Japan/ Short Chinawaiting for a short setup against China A50 and a long setup on Nikkei 225.
Let'see how it goes.
Traders who did the Long Japan/ Short China trades last year earned a lot. Will this combo still be the most beneficial trade for equity traders?
Currency
these 2 economies are gonna cut their rate.
The difference is China's gonna cut their rate regardless of fed's policy, while Japan will be released from the high interest difference between USD/JPY.
Economy
This part is tricky. Japan enjoyed 6% inflation since the "Big Inflation" during the post-Covid international inflation, which is the dream that Japanese authority chases for decades.
Price index and relative cheaper interest for leveraged capital is the 2 biggest Will it continues to grow
As for China, I will write a new article soon
HSC50 FORECAST Xióng MarketBEARS BEAR BEARS or should i say PANDA PANDA PANDA nah sounds like desiiigner
that being said i see the potentiality of more bears this coming wave considering
how i expect more power from dxy soon as u see below usdcny gets stronger HSC weaker and vice versa is true
after looking at usdcny im going with the white route
And remember kid you can make a million
CHINA REBOUND IN 2024?The past four years have not been friendly to China's economic outlook and the stock market reflects this. Several economic, legal, geopolitical, and social challenges have negatively affected investor confidence and triggered a mass migration of investors out of China.
However, China plays a vital role in keeping the global economy running and this will remain the case for years to come. During the same period, investors have shifted their attention to India as the next frontier to take over or dilute the global dependence on China. Despite the markets being forward-looking, this is far from coming to reality.
We are optimistic about China and the challenges the economy is facing will come to pass. Our first partial entry was filled around the first 2018 support level as we see this as a sell-side exhaustion. Looking for a consolidation in the weeks to come and the probability of higher-lows moving forward. If not, we will monitor fundamentals in case another sell-off is triggered.
CN50 to see a temporary move higher?CHN50 - 24h expiry
Buying pressure from 11103 resulted in prices rejecting the dip.
The current move higher is expected to continue.
The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 11300 level.
Our profit targets will be 11150 and 11510
Resistance: 11420 / 11690 / 11880
Support: 10910 / 10550 / 10360
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
CHINA A50: Time to buy Chinese stocks.The China A50 index (CN50) has been trading within a Falling Wedge pattern since July 2022 and more recently in particular hasn't been able to break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since September 08. That bearish sentiment may be coming to an end as the 1D MACD is about to form a new Bullish Cross in the same order as the November 01 2022 Low.
This could be the bottom (Lower Low) of the Falling Wedge and the start of the new Bullish Leg towards the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, as the January 28 2023 High did. We are now buyers on this index, targeting the top of the Falling Wedge at 13000.
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CHINA50 updated forecastOn 4hr chart divergence is forming. I still think it's an opportunity to buy.
RSI on daily chart is 27 - very low.
We might be here for a while because of low volatility during Christmas holiday.
CHINA50 interesting LONG set upI don't usually trade CHINA50, when it comes to China I prefer HK50, but this is an interesting set up/amazing buying opportunity:
- RSI is very low - 29 on daily chart, RSI was 24 few days ago.
- 11000-11100 is a strong support level. Even in March 2020 the index found support at 11500
- I'm aware of economic situation, but I still believe that recession will hit US and European market really bad in 2024/2025, but this will be opportunity for China to grow in strength
- bearish move might be not over yet but once the trend reverses, I believe it can easily start movement towards 15000-16000 (in next 12 months or so)
*This is not a trading advice. Trading is risky. Always do your own analysis before entering the market.*
China 50 opportunity to buyRSI very low
Market record low since March 2020
Fantastic opportunity to buy, TP 11700-11750 max - anything above this in my opinion is risky
This is not a trading advice. Always do your own analysis before entering the market.
China A50: Last wave down. Prepare to long for the new year 2024To summarize:
1. We are currently in the 5th wave down. The last wave.
2. Potentially a sharp drop for the last 2 weeks of Dec 2023.
3. Price might follow the same pattern as Dec 2018.
4. Target 10130-10145.
China50 forming a bottom?CN50USD - 24h expiry
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
Posted a Bullish Hammer Bottom on the 4 hour chart.
This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher.
Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 11165 level.
We look to Buy at 11150 (stop at 11050)
Our profit targets will be 11400 and 11450
Resistance: 11420 / 11690 / 11880
Support: 10910 / 10550 / 10360
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
China50 to see a temporary move higher?CHN50 - 24h expiry
Buying pressure from 11171 resulted in prices rejecting the dip.
The current move higher is expected to continue.
The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 11480 level.
We look to Sell at 11480 (stop at 11560)
Our profit targets will be 11280 and 11220
Resistance: 11420 / 11690 / 11880
Support: 10910 / 10550 / 10360
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Chinese markets look dangerously bearish. No matter how much China is trying to support its markets, whether it is monetary or fiscal stimulus measures in recent months, the equity markets have been very weak. Today's EDGE chart of the Day is the China A50 is a stock market index by FTSE which illustrates how weak some of the top A share stocks are in the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges are. We are nearing the lows of 2022, however the RSI is oversold. If you look at the lower pane, you will also notice that the RSI has been (and could get) much more oversold on any technical breakdown. Not pictured is the price in copper, which has a failed rally above the 200dma along with the AUDUSD with similar price action. New lows in this index may also attract unwanted attention to the price of copper and the Aussie Dollar.
China A50 swing trade longSometimes simple is best. And we may have found a simple setup on the China A50 index.
Sure, the daily chart remains within a downtrend, but it shows the potential to extend its countertrend move higher by at least one more leg in our view.
The index saw a decent rally from the 11,600 area before retracing 50%. A 3-bar bullish reversal pattern has formed (morning star) after two failed attempts to close the day beneath 12,000.
RSI (14) has broken its own bearish trendline and formed a higher low ahead of prices action. If momentum really does lead price, can prices now follow?
Assuming the overnight risk-on rally continues, we could be looking for a move to 12,500 (particularly if China data surprises to the upside today).
CHN50 Buyers Firewall the detail is shown in the above Idea.
I made this Idea based on Candlestick Analysis and Fibonacci Tool.
buyers are burned in black rectangle (0.5- 0.618 golden level retracement )
therefore we can expect that CHN50 index decrease step by step to 1.27 F or 1.618 F.
CN50 to turnaround?CN50USD - 24h expiry
Buying pressure from 11908 resulted in prices rejecting the dip.
The current move higher is expected to continue.
Short term bias is mildly bullish.
The trend of higher lows is located at 11908.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
We look to Buy at 12035 (stop at 11985)
Our profit targets will be 12155 and 12195
Resistance: 12245 / 12530 / 12750
Support: 11880 / 11690 / 11420
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
CHINA A50: Chinese stocks are the buy opportunity of a decade.The China A50 index (CN50) is trading within a Falling Wedge pattern and on the larger picture a Channel Up with its Higher Highs being on June 09 2015 and February 16 2021. The price is now closer to the Channel Up bottom and the pricing of a new long-term Higher Low (bottom), which already makes it a great buy opportunity. Of course the most optimal level to enter would be as close to the bottom as possible, especially of the 1W RSI makes one more Higher Low on its Triangle.
We have seen the very same 1W RSI Triangle in November 2012 - February 2014, when the index was within a similar Falling Wedge. The same RSI Bullish Divergence (Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows) eventually caused the March 18 2014 rebound. This is why the most optimal level to buy would be on the (current) RSI Higher Lows. If that isn't materialized, we will enter when the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) breaks, which will be a bullish break-out confirmation. In either case, our long-term target is the 2.382 Fibonacci extension level at 23000.
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** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
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