EMBASKET trade ideas
Emergin markets - still downtrend hi,
please look on the Emergin Market Index EMBASKE - it is real downturn.
All signs shows especially like always RSI - that move of the index is still on the south. RSI is very weak, sometime you can see a sign a swing up only to cut of stop loss.
Looking on the geopolitical problem, there can be always new crisis - or gas, or war, or other conflict.
I think that main point of problem will be a winter.
Remeber that FED is still on the track to increase rates, inflation in USA is still high, these are really negative signs. I suppose that 2023/24 we can see a bottom of the index and stagflation on the USA market. If USA will be to strong in USD currency, the rates will have to go down, USA cannot all the time pay a high yields and high percentage of their debts of bonds. Lot of companies in SPX index earn money on other markets like polish.
EURUSD very quickly came down - right now it is stopped, but in basket of EUR there are for example my currency - PLN or other European countries currency.
If EURUSD will go down, all other currencies will move also down, and all the index will go down.
I wish you good luck.
Orlenik, adasstadnicki
EMBASKET are on bearish momentum! 10th March 2022Prices are on bearish momentum. We see the potential for a dip from our sell entry at 8388 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci Projection towards our Take Profit at 8305 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Prices sre trading below our ichimoku clouds, further supporting our bearish bias.
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Emerging Markets basket long trade idea. Hello taders... quiet day at the office, so to speak... Had one great trade on BTC/USD (long) then one not-so-great trade on the same pair, but was profitable overall... Demo traders, I repeat, but still, it matters.
A bit unhappy with entering any trade on my watchlist pairs, so looked around and decided to approach my USD/MXN involvement by the back door, and took a look at an EM basket through my FXCM demo...
Went long earlier this morning as LatAm currencies are generally on the up (Colombian and Mexican Peso to name but two in 2021). Let us see if this long has legs. Target: 9750... Trailing stop loss at 9.556. Trade size: 200 contracts.
EM Currencies Show Weakness On H1 TimeThe above chart shows the hourly ichimoku cloud of FXCM's emerging market currencies index - EMBASKET. The observations are as follows:
- The lime green leading span A had crossed below the red leading span B.
- The forward cloud is light pink and indicates resistance.
- Price is below the black base line and the base line is moving in a bearish direction.
- The orange lagging span is below price, which is indicative of weakness.
These observations suggest an element of bearishness for FXCM's EMBASKET.
FXCM's EMBASKET Showing Signs of Weakness on H1The left chart show's FXCM's emerging markets currency index, EMBASKET is black below its 50-day SMA. Moreover the SMA is pointing down with the RSI on the bearish side of 50 (blue rectangle). The right chart shows the hourly time frame. Here the green 5-hour EMA has crossed below the orange 10-hour EMA (green ellipse) and the RSI has moved below 50 (bright green rectangle). These are bearish developments and if the EMAs develop further angle and separation, the index will be showing further weak
EM Currencies May Be Setting Up For Next Leg DownThe left chart shows the daily chart of FXCM's EMBASKET, which is an equally weighted index of the CNH, MXN, ZAR and TRY. The index is below its black 20-day SMA and the SMA is pointing down. Moreover, the daily RSI is below 50 (blue rectangle), which is indicative of a bearish momentum. The hourly EMAs have crossed bearishly and the hourly RSI has pushed below 50 (green ellipses). These are bearish developments, at a time when the daily chart is reacting off of SMA resistance.
EMBASKET Bounces Off Of S3 Pivot on H1Above we see the hourly chart of FXCM's EMBasket, which has bounced off its S3 pivot and been heading upwards since. It is currently tackling resistance at its S1 pivot level. It it breaks through than the next level of overhead resistance may be at the central pivot (P). In assessing if the current price action is a correction in a largely down move we are looking for three occurrences:
- A cross by the green 5-hour EMA below the orange 10-hour EMA.
- A break of price below the blue upwards sloping trend line.
- A cross of the RSI to below the 50 level.
EMBASKET's Oscillators Have Normalized And May Weaken AgainFurther to our previous article , the EMBASKET bounced from its oversold condition. The RSI has normalized but has now hinged and is looking to head down. Moreover, today's candle (still to complete) is a long red candle, indicating strong bearish sentiment. If the EMAs head southeast again, with angle and separation, it will likely be off of an expanding downwards momentum.
EMBASKET In Downtrend But OversoldHere we see FXCM's, EMBasket, which is equally weighted between the the Chinese renminbi, Mexican peso, South African rand, and Turkish lira. We can see that the green 5-day EMA is below the orange 10-day EMA with good angle and separation i.e. there is a downtrend that has momentum behind it. Moreover, the RSI is on the bearish side of 50. However, we do note that the oscillator is below 20 and oversold. Therefore, the index is likely to pause or correct in the near term as the oscillator normalizes and as profits are banked. However, this may provide another opportunity i.e. bounces may be eyed for further short entries.
