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HKG33 trade ideas

stuck in the middle breakout or breakdown? FX:HKG33 Hi ya everyone here's to a week filled with optimistic, progress and hapiness - may the market treat us well! As you can see from previous post ; last week 1h chart that the MACD & KDJ movement that gave us some insights testing the support level. It has climbing up steadily. quite handsome! It didnt breakdown to 19753 level and staying above 20240 level. Last Friday HSI closed at 20804.11 (+725.01; +3.61%) ; however it still record a down 447.87 ; -2.11% for the week. As mentioned, a healthy pullbackis just the market catching its breath before the next big climb! This D chart showing the momentum has turn weak the MACD had a dead cross and the KDJ is at weak zone too. For today, we are looking at 20700, if it holds above this level then it could break 20900 and next resistance at 21395. May trade within the range of 20400 - 20600. For this week, the key support level at 20400 (the 52MA). Note : the last high was Jan'23 (closed at 22635); the recent high (closed at 23119) early this month Oct'24. Happy trading everyone! My take:- For today I'll watch and wait for a better entry point to avoid my previous mistake enter the party too early. No action is an action. while waiting let's zenning with 📙🍵
H
by ChenQianYu
Time for China Long? $112bln in funding schemes brings clarityHang Seng sold off quite significantly (with oil) after PBOC's return from holiday gave a muddy picture on the funding schemes and degree of the stim package, making investors nervous and uncertainty. On friday, the market recovered 5% on the clarity of news items outlining different funding schemes. There is still some pessimism about the efficacy and ability of these funding schemes to lift the economy towards target growth, but there is a lot of optimism from the west, with funds like Scion (Michael Burry) moving capital into china betting on the funding bringing expansion and lifting the markets. This looks like a reasonable poinit to start to watch sunday night (china AM) to look fro a break of the down trend for the gap fill and beyond. Roughly my plan is to find the move towards fair value (21250) and take a bunch of profit, leaving float to swing. May not happen, there is uncertainty, but I'm betting at least that the stock buying news will bring more interest and lift the Chinese indices.
PEPPERSTONE:HK50Long
by decklyndubs
Hang Seng strikes backAfter a massive inflow of liquidity and initial breakout, Chinese stock market may recover from weekly lows, as the price indicates a solid reversal from the bottom and a breakout of a trendline of a correctional formation as shown in the chart. Overall sentiment in stock markets remains positive with the S&P500 and Nasdaq keeping around historical highs, and the VIX unable to cross 20 (an important threshold). The entry point is not perfect, as the breakout had already happened, but the price is still quite close to the weekly low, so risk/reward is on the side of a trader. Always do your own research and never forget to manage your risk!
PEPPERSTONE:HK50Long
by Stanislav_Bernukhov_Exness
1
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PEPPERSTONE:HK50Short
by Thief_Trader
Testing the Support Level. One to Zero. FX:HKG33 Testing at strong support level at ¬20240 if it breached, the index is going to test 19753. Hi ya! How is everyone looking at Hang Seng Index and its performance last week? From the 1h chart with MACD movement, seems the mometum is weakening, both index and indicator are in bearish crossover. As mentioned in previous post, we prefer to see the index climbing up the staircase slow and steady which is more sustainable. Nonetheless, for shorter tf swing trade continue to short. Manage position size and the bearish mode expecting to continue at least for this week. Enter short position where tf 1m,5m,15m diverge and using JD line for confirmation of bearish momentum. As you can see from the D chart, the movement and the momentum has been declining and we can see the MACD and signal line is crossing down. You may check other shorter tf 12h - 30m at point of writing ; the index and indicator are below the zero level. With expectations of more stimulus from gov ; the investors still hesitate to take further position with the recent disappointment. Sell the news, buy the dip! This pull back is healthy. With longer tf W chart the index is on the uptrend, time is all we need. Continue to monitor and set SL for all position. Happy trading everyone!
HShort
by ChenQianYu
Patience - don't chase the high price - 2800 TrackerfundI expect the pull back to continue this week and retrace to the yellow support level at 20210. No rush as this is going to be a slow bull run compared to the 2018 where it rally too fast and fizzle out just as fast.... I believe more monetary stimulus will be unveiled in the coming weeks/month and the 2025 Chinese New Year is an important timeline for the government to dish out good news - shore up their confidence to spend........
TVC:HSILong
by dchua1969
After the smoke and fire settled down a little, still can buy ?For those who can understand Chinese and listen to the social media (live streaming, videos, shorts,etc) on Douyin or Weibo, you will be richly entertained. In this age of social media, it is scary how a content creator who has no background of investing or worse, does not invest in stocks himself and yet has the cloud and power to rally his followers to go "all-in" aka show hand in the China stock market. Instead of listening to all these entertainment , the chart is a much quieter place. All you need to do is watch and not attempt to pre-empt the market moves. On a bigger picture, we can already see there is a resistance at 22, 754 price level , having the price resisted twice previously. Therefore, if one has bought into this index , say 2800 Tracker fund , then you can expect some form of profit taking. So, if the intention of the CCP government is a slow bull and not to repeat the history of 2015 where it died down and crashed the dream of millions of punters/investors including institutional investors, then how they release the stimulus is KEY. There will be profit taking along the way, this slow bull trend. Local government is bleeding without land sales and with the property market is crippling, they do need fresh funds to pay salaries and keep the operation going. Therefore, they will be collecting money from the stock market from time to time, suppressing the much anticipated bull market that everyone has been eagerly awaiting. .... They cannot afford a parabolic move like 23 Sept when the QE measures was announced. The faster it rally, the faster it falls and that would not rekindle the consumers confidence. They would feel played out by their very own government and silent protest will not spend as the government wants so badly. So, it has to tame this wild bull ride up the market slowly.....and manage their meeting and announce the plans clearly without causing too much confusion to the market watchers. We have 2 months left for 2024 and China in a sense is running out of time to meet its GDP growth. For face value sake , they have to deliver what they set out to do. Those fund managers who are still sitting on the fence have to decide fast when balancing their portfolio at year end as well. They are pressured to answer to the investors who are paying annual management fees and seeing other funds with China inclusion performing better than their own. That is the dilemma that all concerned parties are facing. Everyone is walking on tightrope and need to keep the bigger goal in mind. As investors for the long term, we should not be FOMO-ing no matter how loud the party music is and be smart enough to study the fundamentally strong companies and buy them when undervalued........Predicting short term market moves seems exciting on a day by day basis but very few get it right , so stop wasting your time and invest in wisely
TVC:HSILong
by dchua1969
Markets collapse: investors flee China!The Chinese stock market is experiencing a sharp decline following a strong rally in recent weeks. On October 8, the Hang Seng Index (#HSI on FreshForex) plummeted by 9.56%, reaching 20,893 points. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong, dropped even further — by 10.9%. The CSI 300 Index of mainland China, which started the day with an 11% gain, ended with a nearly 8% loss. The main reason for the drop is growing investor dissatisfaction with the lack of new economic stimulus measures from the Chinese government. Expectations were high, especially after the National Development and Reform Commission's press conference, where economic support was promised but no concrete actions were provided. This has heightened uncertainty in the market. What has been done previously: - In late September, the Chinese government announced plans to strengthen economic stimulus, promising fiscal injections and support for the real estate sector. - The People's Bank of China lowered reserve requirements for banks, freeing up 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) for the market. - There are plans to lower mortgage rates and the down payment for second-home purchases to a record low of 15%. Bottom line: The market is waiting for action. Given the history of sharp declines in the Chinese market, such as in 2015 when the CSI 300 Index lost 40% in two months, the Chinese government cannot afford a similar outcome and may direct efforts to strengthen investor confidence. Since mid-September, #HSI has experienced a steady bullish trend, and our analysts believe these trends could repeat.
HSI:HSILong
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Bear Market Continuation - 2444 days and countingChina remains weak, don't fall into the trap of longing here. The HSI has been in a downtrend (bear market) for almost 7 years. Given the ongoing property crisis, it would be very dangerous to go long here. I will not be buying the dip in the ongoing bear market, not until I am confident the low is in and the US elections are over. The time to buy the bounce was the breakout of the parallel channel but I have taken profits on my BABA and PDD trades - please refer to my chart on PDD which was an easy long trade. But now I am back on the sidelines remaining patient. It is very common to see a Flat correction with a powerful B wave and a weak C wave. This is essentially a Lower Low and a Lower High (Wave C). I think this move will be unwind over the coming weeks, particularly as we head into the elections. Both parties will be threatening stronger tariffs on China and once the elections are out of the way and the rhetoric dies down, it will be better to revisit the China equity trade from a long position. For now, I will continue to remain on the sidelines and anticipate continuation of the bear market. Not financial advise!
HSI:HSI
by NoFOMO_
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Drops Nearly 10% TodayHang Seng Index (HSI) Drops Nearly 10% Today As shown on the Hang Seng Index chart (Hong Kong 50 on FXOpen), prices have fallen by almost 10% since trading began today, and the session is not over yet. According to Reuters, bearish sentiment was driven by uncertain statements from Chinese officials regarding economic stimulus measures. This has raised doubts in the stock market about Beijing's ability to steer the world’s second-largest economy out of its most severe downturn since the global pandemic, aiming to achieve 5% growth. Additionally, the decline may have been accelerated by a cascade of long position closures, which were opened in mid-September when the Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong 50 on FXOpen) was in an upward trend. Hang Seng Index Technical Analysis (Hong Kong 50 on FXOpen): → The upward trend (marked in blue) is still intact, although the price is now near the lower boundary, posing a real risk of a break. → The price failed to hold above the 22,700 level, which could act as future resistance. → Support may come from the psychological level of 20,000 points and the September 30 low near 20,630. It’s possible that the lower boundary of the blue channel and the support area between 20,000 and 20,630 could help bulls offset some of today's significant decline. However, for a sustainable continuation of the upward trend on the Hang Seng Index chart (Hong Kong 50 on FXOpen), the market will need clear evidence of economic stimulus from Chinese authorities. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:HSI
by FXOpen
2
HSI significant pull back! FX:HKG33 Look at 1H chart movement together with the MACD & KDJ indicator, the histogram for MACD line & signal line is getting weaker (you can see both indicators curve seems lower than the previous wave). We should monitor. marked the time zone where the index turned bearish for the 1H chart. There was no re-entry position as trading in Asia time zone. The significant pull-back continues when market re-open here. It's 10% pull back this morning. Well, this is a good chance to look at for a better re-entry level. However, we should be cautious to avoid catching falling knives 🗡 what we see from the 1H chart MACD & KDJ both are on the downtrend level/bearish red zone. However, we can look at the support level at 21580. If the index stays above this level then the uptrend is still intact. Otherwise, we could expect a more significant pull-back (cross-check with longer tf chart 4H,8H). For shorter 1H tf swing trade check the 8H Chart for support/resistance level Find support level at 21500-21700 and resistance level 22000 -22300 It has been climbing too fast and taking a break now. Personal POV, prefer the movement slow and steady forming a stable staircase; more sustainable. Happy trading everyone! A pull-back is healthy for taking a breather.
H
by ChenQianYu