Are we in a bear market yet ?I love reading the news , in fact I do it daily either from the TV at night or from online news portal. But, I also sieve out the noises from the crowd and that is so important as it can whack your emotions into a roller coaster and cause undue stress, panick attack and cause you to take illogical decisions, like selling when there is a draw down.
A bear market in technical terms mean it has drop 20% or more from the peak in its share price. So, we look at HSI, we are currently less than 10% fall only. And it is still in the bullish trend.
One thing I have learnt the hard way is not to outsmart the market by predicting what moves it will make. By that, I mean assuming it is going to break down from the bullish trend line and shorting , hoping to get in at a higher price and maximise profits.
The question is ;WHAT IF it does not break down and reverse the trend instead ? With a few trades like this, you could easily burn your portfolio and sets you in a negative state, which is what we do not want.
So how ? JUST WAIT for the market to tell you what it is going to do. If it breaks down the support of 28, 273, that will be pretty convincing to take a short if I want to. (You always have a choice). Then, the price may tumble to say 26,751 and rebound or continue to break down further (as shown by the red arrows in the chart)
If someone puts a knife at my neck and asked me to take a bet, I would predict it is going to be bullish in the medium to long term with a profit target of 32,000 or more. How long will it takes to reach there ? I dunno. Will it reach there ? I also dunno .
All I know is to stay calm, trade what you see and see what you trade.
