HKG33 trade ideas
accumulation and distributionit seems now hsi gets accumulating and i think it bounces on that yellow and green balls
Hang Seng---All of the recovery?Hello Traders,
today I`d like to show you, Hang Seng, on a short term basis. I have spotted the 20 min chart, `cause HS shows at this timeframe the clearest pattern to my view. Hopefully, all of you can follow this timeframe. If not, let me know, I will use a higher timeframe than.
On Thursday 19, Hang Seng made a low @ 21139 and pushed to the upside. This move is to my view a „three-up, implies a countertrend attack that develops as an a-b-c-pattern.
Wave ((c))of the pattern achieved to a 1.382 Extension of wave ((a)) and is showing a bit „weakness“ since then.
Note, the similarity of the latter two chart patterns (highlighted with the two brown rectangles)! Both are exactly at the same length as the one before and shows the same internal structure. It could be, that HS has finished it`s countertrend at Friday @ 23791 and reversed to the downside or it needs some more up-down divisions to complete the structure. After, a decline to fresh new lows below 21139 should be next!
But one more fact is to try using gap-analysis.
I have, once again, highlighted the zone with the two gaps (purple rectangles) to the upside. Both are equal. If HS will achieve to the 23843.8 area, what plays the idea of one more up-down division perfect, than, if so to occur, HS is ready to decline to fresh new lows.
If so to com? We `ll see.
As you know, we have four types of gaps. The common-gap, which occurs most often during sideways markets, the Breakaway-gap, that tends to occur at the breakout of wave „3“, the Acceleration-gap, what occurs during at or near the midpoint of the move, and we have the Exhausting-gap, what finished the move. A close of this gap indicates, that the advance (in this case) is over!
One more important fact is, that a countertrend within a wave „4“ occasionally rare retrace more than a 0.5 Fibonacci of wave „3“! So any move, and close above the 23963.9 would alter the chart count and makes a wave „4“ less probably.
Have a safe and great weekend....
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment.
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
Hang Seng...Countertrend! Wave 4 underway!Hello Traders,
Hang Seng may make a bottom within a wave 3 of Minor degree @ 21709. the developing move is countertrend within a wave of the same degree.
If so, a target range for HS could be around the wave (iv) high @ 23631 or a@ 23767, what is the 0.382 Fibonacci of the wave 3 decline. Another target area is around 24586 levels.
Note at the lower graph how the Non-confirmation at STOCH played out well (in this case) and lead the way to a pullback. Once price will meet the cited target range, STOCH will be at or above overbought level and should show the start of the next wave decline.
I have put the alternate count below the chart to show even another way of view.
But this is to me an idea of lesser confidence.
For the bearish view is nice to know, that there is an open gap by the trading of Mid-may in 2017 @19407. Gap often acts like a magnet!
I will update the chart asap.
Have a great weekend and stay healthy.
Protect yourself from the Corona-virus!
Best wishes....
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment.
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
Hang Seng , When is a right time to buy Long.TVC:HSI
As my view, tomorrow have an opportunity to buy Long, If the price up crossing 21,845, investor can set a stop buy at this price, and stop loss at 21709, the resistant might be around 22772 and 22914.
If open market the index is continued drop then we just do nothing and wait for next opportunity coming.
At current market, is clearly downtrend, So for buying long(reversal) Better set a tight stop loss.
HANG SENG HONG KONG entering primary wave 3 upHSI:HSI
HSI seems to have finished primary wave 2 down. Primary wave up should lift the index to around 45,000 in about 2 years from now. HSI:HSI
Hang Seng Index may be bearish in coming 6 monthsWhen checking the Hang Seng Index HSI monthly chart, you can see the HSI has finished the wave 1 to 5 and starts to go from wave A - C. HSI is now testing the strong resistance at aound 29,000 to 29,100. If this resistance cannot be breakthrough, it is likely that HSI will start to go in wave C. According to the Fib, the first target will be 22843 which is 0.5 level of Fib extension. If the bearish force won't stop at this point, it may test the 0.68 level, that means 20331.
Wait for an accumulated 30% drop and BUY at 20286.9 for HSIThe recent drop for HSI started on 20 Jan 2020 at 29174.9.
It would be a good level and good narrative to buy after seeing it dropped for 30% or -8,888 from the last top.
Buy at 20286.9, accumulate below 23631.5.
We would expect the market to stabilize and have a rally before US Election 2020.
Hang Seng - correction finishing?I posted a bearish chart of the Hang Seng back in January that has played out pretty well so far. I reckon that this one might have another leg down before a decent rally or resumption of the uptrend but there is a bit of confluence for that 78.2 fib retracement level too......
HONG KONG 50~DOWN TREND CHANNEL~WEEKLY 0786BOUNCE UP THEN
(1) EITHER BREAK UP OF YELLOW RESISTANCE
(2) OR BOUNCE DOWN FROM YELLOW RESISTANCE
Hang Seng...Wave "3" of "C" done?Hello Traders,
as I mentioned per my last analysis, Hang Seng declined into the target-range of ~21337 area (intraday low @ 21139) and reversed. It has met the green rectangle I have drawn at chart as a possible target area!
At the low @ 21139, waves ((C))=((A))! So, a first leg (?) of decline could be done and a recovery short term might be underway. Where are the targets for this view! Let`s check it out!
Based on the monthly timeframe, there is no resistance at chart, `cause this month's candle was a bearish one with not one level to call as a resistance zone. The market has been sold-off in a manner, never seen before!
As to note at the weekly chart, the divergence between price and STOCH is clear to observe! This has been going on for quite a while now. More interesting to observe is the structure of the last leg down. It looks like not done, for now, so a possible countertrend might be underway. It could be a wave „4“! This possible wave „3“ of „C“ has expanded further than the FibExtension of 2! So, if this was wave „3“, a wave „4“ of the same degree is underway and should retrace a 0.382 Fibonacci of the wave „3“ decline. This ranges into the price territory of 23781. Depending on when and if this price range will be met, it would coincide with the middle line of the trend channel (dotted blue) and could be a favorable resistance level! More bullish potential exists!
Note the open gap at this price level! Once this move is done, another leg of decline would bring HS to fresh new lows!
While the daily chart, to my view, did not spot other wave patterns, I will focus my analysis at the weekly for the coming week. If something interesting happens or wave patterns will show a clear structure, I will update the chart asap!
Have a great weekend and stay healthy.
Protect yourself from the coronavirus!
Best wishes....
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment.
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
Hang Seng...London`s fog!Hello Traders,
to count a chart is sometimes a challenge! You think you are on the right path most of the time and the picture seams cristal clear.
Then, suddenly, some unexpected happens, and your view is like watching through London´s fog!
This is how I feel now!
The past two days, I try to figure out, what is going on with Hang Seng, and the bullish picture I had, has got some cracks. So while I am not sure about the big-picture, I want to approach the possible count in steps!
So, let`s begin.
Based on the monthly chart we are able to recognize that a „big-change“ of trend could be underway.
The drop from the ATH @ 33484 shows a clear „wave-overlapping“ between a possible wave „I“ high and a possible wave „IV“, `cause it dropped into the price territory of wave „I“ what is a clear „knock-out“ of the Elliottwave rules. So the odds become greater, that a possible wave (I) or (A) of Supercycle-degree has ended at this point. The decline since `til now is a „three-down“which implies a corrective structure.
From a Fibonacci view, a 0.382 level (@ 24771) was broken by the last leg of decline in the past week. Note that the weekly close was below this area, which is to me important to view!
Measuring the „three-down, wave equality is achieved at 21336.7. So plenty of room to go downside!
Based on the monthly chart, we need to get a close above this month candle high, what is @ 26805 and the candle must be „green“, i. e. bullish, to apply a short term change of trend!
View the weekly chart we are able to observe a „divergence“ by the STOCH and price. Note, that STOCH did not change it`s declining trend to the upside, so, here too, there is much room to decline, (the green box shows the possible stopping range based on a monthly chart)!
Again, measuring the last leg of decline from the possible wave ((B)) to Friday`s low, HS closed above the 1.618 Fib-Extension of a possible wave „Y“ of a „W“-X“-“Y“ or „A“-“B“-“C“ correction. Again, the obvious „support-range“ with the green rectangle!
On the upside, there is much potential to close the open gap from 26146-25134.
The daily chart shows a massive change of trend intraday, which should lead to the conclusion, that a first leg of „selling-panic“ has come to an end short term. As long as Friday`s low keeps valid, a possible area of advance could be at the 0.382 Fibo @ 25059, which is close to the open gap, based on the weekly view! More bullish recovery potential exists! Note, that STOCH has change the short-term trend to the upside and crosses its the signal line up!
For this view, the low @ 24117.90 must be valid!
Be patient, stay tuned...
Have a great weekend...
ruebennase
