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HKG33 trade ideas

HK50 Weekly AnalysisStarting from the weekly candle, last Friday first spike down, touched 16127 then reverse back up 300 points. Overall, it's been 2 weeks in a roll it closes firmly above 16000 level. For this week target, as long as HK50 can start to firmly clove above 16800, we can start to eye for that ultimate resistance of 17100. I still believe that 17100 is a make or break level in terms of whether if we can start reversing the bearish trend or just a double top back to the down side. I will update this analysis once I see a more clear signal. For buy, I will be considering as long as the first 1 hour candle can close above 16843. The TP can be somewhere at 17101 For sell, as long as the candle starting to close below 16422, I can start to look for sell back down to 16127
PEPPERSTONE:HK50Long
by howard11594
Buy or Sell - HK50?Yesterday the market close with a bearish candle. If you focus on the top wick, it tapped exactly 16700 which is a crucial resistance level that HK50 just couldn't break above the past couple days. Thus, I am following thru my theory of a bearish trend until the market begins to find a solid support. For trading ideas, depends on how the first 15 mins candle open, I will be looking for a sell to minimum of 16274. Depends on the volume, the overall target can be between 16127 to 16000. For Buy, I will only look for a buy if it is starting to close firm above 16700.
PEPPERSTONE:HK50Short
by howard11594
HK50 head back down?After almost 3 days of ranging, it looks like HK50 is finally forming a direction. Historically, based on the last 8 years market day after the budget release, the market tends to close in a bearish candle. Based on the report, it doesn't seem like there is much positive news that can boost up the Hong Kong economy. Thus, fundamentally speaking, I am still Bearish for HK50. Based on technically analysis, from the weekly to the daily candle, we are heading toward a bearish trend. Weekly formed a top wick and fail to break above 16700. As mentioned with my previous analysis, there are two crucial resistance level before we can start calling this an overall reversal trend, 16700 and 17100. Now than the daily candle also close back below 16500. With just 2 days left in the market, I would not be surprised if we head back down to 16000 level today. One thing to note, in order for it to head back down, the market typically opens up with a gap to the upside before head back down. Thus, be careful, when market open and we started to see a really fast bullish candle, it could very well be the liquidity grab to the downside. However, if by the end of first 1 hour candle, market is closing a firm bullish candle, such as closing above 16500, we might be able to look for a buy position
PEPPERSTONE:HK50Short
by howard11594
2
Ranging day for HK50Yesterday is a pretty quiet Monday, with lower trade volume and no clear direction. I anticipate somewhat the same market condition today as well as I mentioned in my analysis yesterday. Wednesday will be an important day for the market as the Hong Kong government is releasing the budget for 2024-2025. This will dictate how the market direction will move. Ideally, today will be one of those day to sit back on the side line and observe. Thus, there is no short term scalping idea at the moment. I will update with some idea once the market open and see if there is any potential to the upside or downside
PEPPERSTONE:HK50
by howard11594
Weekly HK50 analysisLast Friday, HK 50 close above 16700. However, it still hasn't close above the very key resistance 17000 level. The one I called make or break from last Friday analysis. The reason being is because, not only this will be the 2024 high, it will finally show the momentum of breaking the downtrend of lower high and lower low. One very important thing to keep in mind while trading this week is Wednesday, the hong kong government will release their version of FOMC meeting minute. This will dictate how the market direction will go moving forward. If the tone is more dovish, we may finally start to see some momentum to 17500 by the end of the week. However, if it doesn't break above that key 17000 level, this could very well be a double top pattern and it will head back down to retest 16000 level. Overall, I would stay out of the market for the time being, until after Wednesday for a better direction. However, if you really want a quick scalp of 100 points, depends how the market open, if it opens with a gap to the downside then starting to rip up after the first 15 mins candle, you can potentially look for a quick buy. Again, please be very cautious as this is just a Monday opening
PEPPERSTONE:HK50
by howard11594
1
Learning the Basics of Supply and DemandI feel its important for even the most advanced traders to take the time once in a while to re-assess the fundamentals. For newer traders trying to learn this is how I create models of supply and demand. I look on the daily or H4 chart for areas of consolidation followed by an engulfing candle and draw a line, if price returns to that line and doesn't break through it, I make it thicker. If it touches more than 3 times I redraw as a rectangle zone. Notice the 2 green lines. I drew the first when price action started to act bullish and push up against the trend. What I've identified are simple areas where there was an auction and one side clearly won and the price moved to a lower or higher fair value area. What to do with this information is to notice prices that attract buyers and sellers. Use these levels as targets to increase your probability of being positioned on the profitable side of a movement. The further you enter away from these extremum points, the more often you will end up in positions that may win, but will draw down significantly before doing so. Save yourself the stress and let price come to you at a zone where it has hard reversed in the past.
HEducation
by BestCentimeter
HK50 make or break dayToday is the last day of the week for HK 50. 17000 is a very strong resistance level. Looking at the daily and the weekly chart, looks like we are coming up to retest the 17000 range. The reason why I think today is very crucial in terms of the overall trend for HK 50 because if today close above 17000, we can then say HK50 is breaking the current downtrend of lower high and lower low. However, if today market close back into the range of 16,500. That means the past couple days bullish candle is just simply forming a lower high. If that is the case, next week, most likely we will head back down to the 16000 range.
PEPPERSTONE:HK50
by howard11594
📈💰 A Day Trading Short setup Opportunity on HK50 💱🔥 Let's Dive into the Key Points! 🔥 Are you ready for an exciting day trading opportunity, Retracement on HK50? 🚀💹 Pay close attention to the following key points: ⬇️ Sell Limit Levels: 🎯 16732 🎯 16758 🎯 16785 📈 Take Profits: TP1: 16680 TP2: 16648 🔑 Key Level - Resistance: 🛡️ 16710 ❌ Stop Loss: 🛑 16785 💡 Trading Insights: Today, we focus on HK50 and potential sell limit levels. Keep an eye on 16732, 16758, and 16785 as they present entry opportunities to capitalize on potential downward movements. To secure profits, consider setting take profit levels at 16680 and 16648. These targets can help you lock in gains as the trade progresses. Watch out for the key level of resistance at 16710, as it may act as a significant barrier to further upward movement. Remember to manage your risk effectively by setting a stop loss at 16785. This will help protect your trading capital and limit potential losses. Embrace the excitement of day trading and always stay vigilant in analyzing the market. Good luck! 💪💹📈 #HK50 #DayTradingOpportunity #SellLimit #TakeProfit #StopLoss 🌍💱
CAPITALCOM:HK50Short
by ICT_Trader_SB
ICT Long setup HK50, Daytrade📈💰 Day Trading Strategy on HK50 💱 🔥 Key Levels and Setups to Watch Out For 🔥 Let's explore an exciting day trading strategy with key levels and setups to keep an eye on! 🚀💹 ⬆️ Buy Limit Levels: 🎯 16476 🎯 16450 🎯 16424 🎯 Take Profits: TP1: 16416 TP2: 16424 🔑 Key Level - Support: 🛡️ 16475 ❌ Stop Loss: 🛑 16400 💡 Trading Insights: Today's trading strategy focuses on key levels and potential setups. The buy limit levels of 16476, 16450, and 16424 offer entry opportunities to join the market. To maximize gains, consider setting take profit levels at 16416 and 16424. These targets can help secure profits as the trade progresses. Keep a close eye on the crucial support level at 16475, as it may act as a significant turning point or provide additional buying opportunities. To manage risk effectively, it is essential to set a stop loss at 16400. This will help limit potential losses and protect your trading capital. Remember, analyze the market carefully, adapt your strategy as needed, and trade responsibly. Best of luck! 💪💹📈 #HK50 #DayTrading #TradingStrategy #KeyLevels #StopLoss #TakeProfit 🌍💱
CAPITALCOM:HK50Long
by ICT_Trader_SB
1
HK50 continue bearish?Like yesterday analysis, the market opens with a spike up then re-test 16,000 range. Overall, the volume is still really low. Yesterday it closes a weak bullish doji candle still respecting 16350 resistance level. For today's analysis, I can see there is a possibility of retesting 16000 and if the 1 hour time frame close below 16,000 range on the first half of the market open, along with higher volume, we might see it re-test 15900 as well. Overall bias: Bearish
PEPPERSTONE:HK50Short
by howard11594
2
Fake out on HK50Based on the daily, this is what I called a dragon twin candle. 16500 is a pretty strong resistance level. Although Hk50 been bullish the past couple days last week, it never able to push above 16500 due to lower volume, with yesterday china market reopen, it actually close back a bearish with the same little top wick. Hence, this is what I called a dragon twin candle, one bullish and one bearish candle with almost identical small top wick. I am predicting today might spike up at the beginning to grab some more liquidity and possibility retest 16,000 by the end of the day. My overal bias: Bearish
PEPPERSTONE:HK50Short
by howard11594
1
First HK50 Long entry in the year of dragon 2024!😊Quick Money: The Secrets of Successful Online Trading 👋Hey traders, are you looking for a hot tip on HK50 for the first trading day of the year of the Dragon to boost your profits? The HK50 index is showing a strong uptrend in the 4-hour and 8-hour timeframes (D1 is in downtrend), indicating the first day in year of dragon 2024 still keeping a bullish momentum for the Hong Kong stock market. The index has bounced off two key support zones, which are: - Support zone 1: Between 15150 and 15250 points, where the index found buyers on February 9 and 10. - Support zone 2: Between 15470 and 15570 points, where the index reversed its intraday downtrend on February 14. These support zones can be used as potential entry points for swing traders who want to ride the uptrend. The swing trade buy limit levels are marked on the chart below. We also took advantage of the uptrend by executing a long entry for day trade in the morning session of HK50 at 15640 points. Our target profits for this daytrade are: - TP1: 15790, which is the previous high of February 12. - TP2: 15870, which is the upper boundary of the rising channel. Our stop loss for this daytrade is set at 15440 points, which is below the support zone 2 and the lower boundary of the rising channel. This gives us a risk-reward ratio of more than 1, which means we are risking less than we can potentially gain. ⚠️Disclaimer: Trading forex is risky and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. We are not responsible for any losses you may incur from following our signals. Always do your own research and analysis before placing any trades.
CAPITALCOM:HK50Long
by ICT_Trader_SB
1
Hang Seng Index - A potential multi bagger in the long termRead the latest article here With this mask off policy, we can expect more people to come out of their home and resume their pre-Covid days - shopping, meeting friends at cafe, more dining out, weekend travel,etc. This is good news for local consumption along with the incentives that the Government is currently offering. I posted here to go LONG on HSI late last year when it breached the all important weekly bullish trend line. Macroeconomic data and news gave me the assurance that the major storms have passed and it is only a matter of time before Hong Kong picked up its pace and roar back into action once more. This week will , imo be another good opportunity to go LONG or accumulate for those who had done so.
TVC:HSILong
by dchua1969
Why It Might Be Time For Hong Kong Stocks To Come BackThe Chinese economy is currently facing challenges, and the momentum of Chinese stocks is not great. It may seem questionable why anyone would choose to invest in Chinese stocks when there are other high-performing options available. Yesterday, the leader of Hong Kong expressed his intention to enact stricter national security laws in the near future. These laws would build upon the comprehensive legislation imposed by Beijing on the city in 2020. The leader emphasized that Hong Kong "could not afford to wait" in implementing these measures. This development is being closely monitored by businesspeople, diplomats, and academics. There is concern that the new laws, specifically Article 23, which would target espionage, state secrets, and foreign influence, could have a significant impact on Hong Kong as a global financial center. Is it a good opportunity to buy Hong Kong stocks now? It is important to remember that during times of deep pessimism, there can be high opportunities for investors. Warren Buffett often advises that it can be profitable to be greedy when others are fearful, and vice versa. In the short term, investing can be driven more by narratives and emotions rather than fundamentals. This can cause prices to deviate from their true value. Eventually, prices reach an extreme and start to revert back to a more reasonable level. From both fundamental and technical perspective, we may be approaching such a turning point for HSI:HSI , as extreme bearishness has led to low valuations that have historically preceded significant price rallies. While valuations may not be the best indicator for short-term returns, they are crucial for long-term returns. Currently, the valuations of Hong Kong stocks, trading at a Price-to-earnings ratio (PE ratio) of 7.5, are at record lows compared to their own history and other markets. This makes them attractive for long-term investors. The current valuations offer a margin of safety, as it would take a significant deterioration in the situation or an extended period of poor performance for valuations to be lower than they are now. Since 2009, there were 3 times the Hong Kong stocks’ PE ratio traded below 10, highlighted in the chart above. And all 3 times had offered investors good returns, from 10% to 60%. The current low valuation has been started since Aug 2022. We feel that a small rebound in valuations to more normal levels could generate attractive returns, even if the companies' earnings are not exceptional. Historically, the best returns have been achieved when starting valuations were low and the profit outlook was not optimistic. Summary It's important to note that Hong Kong stocks may not perform as well over the next decade as US stocks did in the previous one. However, if you are willing to hold onto these stocks for long term, they could offer enhanced returns and geographical risk diversification.
HSI:HSILong
by wealth_compass
The Hang Seng Index is Near Important SupportThe Hang Seng Index is Near Important Support The economy of China is hit by the decision to liquidate the developer Evergrande due to a debt of USD 300 billion. Bloomberg writes that this will have huge consequences for all of China. While the S&P 500 index rose by more than 3% since the beginning of January, the Hang Seng index fell by more than 8%. JPMorgan and HSBC point to local government debt, non-performing bank loans and negative sentiment in the private sector. The weekly chart of the stock index Hang Seng (HSI) shows that: → The price is in a downward trend, which is shown by the black line. → The price dropped close to the 2022 minimum. → The RSI indicator is located near the oversold zone. What is important: the price is near the lower border of the long-term channel (shown by orange lines), from which support can be expected. Expectations of investors to lower the interest rate from the Fed may increase the appetite for risky assets, which features Chinese stocks. As Reuters writes, Goldman Sachs noted in its note to clients that hedge funds are actively buying Chinese shares - for the period from January 23 to 25, there was the largest capital inflow in the last 5 years. Perhaps the managers of hedge funds believe that the plans of the Chinese authorities to stimulate the economy for more than $280 billion will become a reality, and the price of the Hang Seng index will make a jump from the lower border of the long-term channel, breaking the black line of the downward trend. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:HSI
by FXOpen
1
Chinese Economy (HSI) Supercycle ReversalThe Chinese economy has had 4 consecutive years of closing in decline. Evidently, the Chinese economy supercycle (as depicted in the chart) indicates that a reversal is well overdue (or superdue in this particular context). By the end of this year, it can be expected to see a relatively massive reversal in the Chinese economy, one that may catch many by surprise. On the daily timeframe, this reversal started in this past week, Monday 01/22/24, where China likely saw its last lowest of the year. There's still potential to test 10/31/22 low and maybe even break it at some point in February, but doing so will imply an even larger repump, leading to potential break of the yearly supercycle. In any event, if China does indeed maintain the recent low as the yearly low, it means it intends to engulf the yearly red cycle this year, latest 2025. But 2025-'26 should mean the chinese economy once again sees a powerful decline. After this, Chinese economy could choose to completely collapse as an economy or overcome odds and revive a green supercycle economy. In my fairest opinion, I think Chinese economy will explode to the upside, likely with fusion technology as the leading catalyst. Artificial Intelligence will ultimately be the wildcard that decides whether this catalyst holds the economy in whole or whether it briefly collapses until further regulation is upheld.
TVC:HSILong
by JuanLagos94
3
Are we close to peak China pessimism?President Xi Jinping’s New Year address put paid to hopes of much larger stimulus. In his address, President Xi pointed to the consolidation and enhancement of the economic recovery and no signs of a boost from policy coming. Furthermore, China’s economic growth for 2023 came out at 5.2%, above the central government’s 5% forecast, which it boasted it was able to achieve without relying on large stimulus. China’s real GDP growth to slow further in 2024. Investors' pessimism towards China’s economy could be nearing a peak given recent efforts by policymakers to stabilize sentiment. Policymakers acting to stabilize sentiment: China’s policymakers are feeling the need to stabilize investor sentiment and this week have taken two steps in this direction. First, following a recent State Council meeting, Premier Li Qiang suggested help is on the way for China’s beleaguered stock market. Newswire reports suggest this help could include CNY 2.3trn of funds (mainly from SOEs) to buy Chinese equities to prop up the market. Such a measure could help put a bottom on investors’ China pessimism. However, such purchases would not address their underlying concerns including a weak residential property market, local government debts, the lack of policy easing, and the risk of another regulatory clampdown. Second, the PBoC surprised with an RRR cut as well as a cut to its re-lending and discount rates. While I was expecting cuts to both, the size and timing were surprising given the recent disappointment of the PBoC keeping its MLF on hold. The PBoC also sounded dovish suggesting further room to ease policy given the gap between actual and target prices and the Fed’s pivot towards easing. Check out my other ideas:
TVC:HSILong
by Elite_Forex
HSI - could this be the bottom already ?Over the last 3 days, we witnessed a near 9% rally for the HSI. There were several contributing factors - the Chinese government has injected more stimulus into the market. Read here and of course the 360 degrees turn by famous Jack Ma who bought 271 million shares of its own company, Alibaba, giving the much depressed stock a huge rally, causing a rising tide among the Chinese tech stocks like Tencent, etc. On the weekly chart, we can see the price action on Monday has touched the 2009 year low at 14,588 price level. This is almost 60% down from its peak at 33, 472 in 2018. From a PE ratio perspective, Hong Kong remains the cheapest market and undervalued as well. Of course, many analysts still refused to believe the stimulus will trickle down so fast to boost consumer confidence as these policies remain broad based and lack execution details. However, consumer sentiments are key and emotions are already running high for those who are holding stocks in the red for the last few years. Some will naturally want to offload to cut their losses while others like myself will find this a great opportunity to accumulate. Many things remain unclear - the property market which contributes 1/3 of its country GDP, the escalating local government debts, high unemployment among 16-29 age group and the deflationary environment causing delayed spending (read here ) We can expect more clarity once the Feds start to cut its interest rates expected to be in March as this is the Election year. Joe Biden already helped many students to cancel their students loans (read here ) hoping to get more votes from this younger generation. I think he will have more goodies under his sleeves in the coming months to entice the population at large to garner a bigger winning vote which will naturally help shore up the US stock market. Once US interest rates is lowered, I would expect RMB to start appreciating slowly as it has been on the reverse (depreciation) for almost 8% in 2023. All funds are flowing to US where they can get much higher interest thus the massive outflow of funds from China stock market. China is moving from an investment led approach to one that relies more on consumption approach and that would takes time or years to see the impact and changes. The double digit growth that many has expected of China may be history and a much matured, tamer China will be showcasing its domestic strengths in time to come.
TVC:HSILong
by dchua1969