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NAS100 trade ideas

Nasdaq Elliott wave study … math study .. Refined Elliott Wave Count (Higher Degree) Let’s re-evaluate the larger wave structure with more precision by focusing on the price action from late 2024 to mid-March 2025: Wave 1 (Impulsive): Start: The low around late 2024 appears to be near 18,250 (approximated from the chart’s early price action). End: The first significant high is around 19,500, which occurred in early January 2025. Length: 19,500 - 18,250 = 1,250 points. This move up is Wave 1 of the higher-degree impulsive wave. Wave 2 (Corrective): Start: 19,500. End: The pullback to around 18,750 (a low in mid-January 2025). Retracement: 19,500 - 18,750 = 750 points, which is a 60% retracement of Wave 1 (1,250 × 0.618 = 772 points). This is a deep but acceptable retracement for Wave 2, as Wave 2 can retrace up to 61.8% of Wave 1 without invalidating the count. Wave 2 appears to have completed around 18,750. Wave 3 (Impulsive): Start: 18,750. End: The high at 21,750, which occurred in early March 2025. Length: 21,750 - 18,750 = 3,000 points. Fibonacci Extension: Wave 3 often extends to 1.618 or 2.618 times the length of Wave 1. 1.618 × 1,250 = 2,022.5 points. From the Wave 2 low: 18,750 + 2,022.5 = 20,772.5. 2.618 × 1,250 = 3,272.5 points. From the Wave 2 low: 18,750 + 3,272.5 = 22,022.5. The actual Wave 3 length (3,000 points) is very close to the 2.618 extension (3,272.5 points), which is typical for Wave 3 in a strong trending market like the Nasdaq 100. This confirms that the high at 21,750 is likely the end of Wave 3. Wave 4 (Corrective): Start: 21,750. Current Price: 19,490.7 (as of March 19, 2025). Retracement Levels: 23.6% of Wave 3: 21,750 - (3,000 × 0.236) = 21,750 - 708 = 21,042. 38.2% of Wave 3: 21,750 - (3,000 × 0.382) = 21,750 - 1,146 = 20,604. 50% of Wave 3: 21,750 - (3,000 × 0.5) = 21,750 - 1,500 = 20,250. 61.8% of Wave 3: 21,750 - (3,000 × 0.618) = 21,750 - 1,854 = 19,896. Current Position: The price at 19,490.7 has retraced slightly beyond the 61.8% level (19,896), which is a deep retracement but still within the acceptable range for Wave 4. In Elliott Wave theory, Wave 4 can retrace up to 78.6% of Wave 3 in some cases, especially in indices: 78.6% of Wave 3: 21,750 - (3,000 × 0.786) = 21,750 - 2,358 = 19,392. The price is very close to the 78.6% retracement (19,392) and is also testing the lower boundary of the ascending channel at 19,425, providing strong confluence for a potential Wave 4 low. Wave 5 (Projected Impulsive): Wave 5 typically equals the length of Wave 1 or reaches a Fibonacci extension of the entire Wave 1-3 move. Wave 1 Length: 1,250 points. From the potential Wave 4 low at 19,490.7: 19,490.7 + 1,250 = 20,740.7. 0.618 Extension of Wave 1-3: Wave 1-3 range: 18,250 to 21,750 = 3,500 points. 0.618 × 3,500 = 2,163 points. From the Wave 4 low: 19,490.7 + 2,163 = 21,653.7. 1.0 Extension of Wave 1-3: 1.0 × 3,500 = 3,500 points. From the Wave 4 low: 19,490.7 + 3,500 = 22,990.7. Channel Target: The upper boundary of the ascending channel is around 22,250 (as marked on the chart), which aligns closely with the 0.618 extension target of 21,653.7 and suggests a realistic Wave 5 target in the 21,650–22,250 range. 2. Sub-Wave Structure of Wave 4 (A-B-C Correction) Wave 4 is a corrective wave, typically unfolding in a three-wave A-B-C structure. Let’s break it down with more precision: Wave A: Start: 21,750. End: The first significant low after the peak, which is around 20,276 (a previous support level marked on the chart). Length: 21,750 - 20,276 = 1,474 points. Wave B: Start: 20,276. End: The bounce to 20,833 (a minor high before the next decline). Length: 20,833 - 20,276 = 557 points. Retracement of Wave A: 557 / 1,474 = 37.8%, which is close to a typical 38.2% retracement for Wave B in an A-B-C correction. Wave C: Start: 20,833. Current Price: 19,490.7. Length So Far: 20,833 - 19,490.7 = 1,342.3 points. Wave C Projections: Wave C often equals Wave A: 1,474 points. From the Wave B high: 20,833 - 1,474 = 19,359. Wave C can extend to 1.618 × Wave A: 1,474 × 1.618 = 2,384.9 points. From the Wave B high: 20,833 - 2,384.9 = 18,448.1. Current Position: The price at 19,490.7 is very close to the 1:1 projection of Wave C (19,359), suggesting that Wave C (and thus Wave 4) is likely nearing completion. The deeper projection to 18,448 seems less likely unless the price breaks below the channel support at 19,425. 3. Confluence with the Ascending Channel The ascending channel provides additional context for the Elliott Wave count: Lower Channel Support: The price is currently testing the lower boundary of the channel at 19,425, which aligns closely with the 78.6% retracement of Wave 3 (19,392) and the 1:1 Wave C projection (19,359). This confluence of levels strengthens the case for a Wave 4 low. Middle of the Channel: The middle of the channel (around 20,276–20,833) acted as resistance during the Wave B bounce and will likely be the first target for Wave 5. Upper Channel Resistance: The upper boundary of the channel (around 22,250) aligns with the projected Wave 5 target, providing a realistic endpoint for the impulsive wave. 4. RSI Analysis in the Context of Elliott Wave The RSI is currently at 44.2, down from a recent low of around 40. Wave 4 and RSI: In Elliott Wave theory, Wave 4 corrections often coincide with RSI readings near oversold levels (30–40). The RSI dipping to 40 and now showing a slight uptick (with a green arrow) suggests that selling pressure may be exhausting, which is typical at the end of a Wave 4 correction. Bullish Divergence: The RSI is starting to turn upward while the price is near support, indicating a potential bullish divergence. This supports the idea that Wave 4 is nearing completion and Wave 5 may begin soon. 5. More Accurate Scenarios Bullish Scenario (Wave 5 Upward): Confirmation: A bounce above 19,490.7, followed by a break above 20,276 (the Wave B high), would confirm the start of Wave 5. Targets: First target: 20,276–20,833 (middle of the channel and previous highs). Second target: 21,653.7 (0.618 extension of Wave 1-3). Final target: 22,250 (upper channel boundary and potential Wave 5 completion). Wave 5 Sub-Waves: Wave 5 itself will likely unfold in five sub-waves, so we can expect some consolidation or minor pullbacks as it progresses toward the target. Bearish Scenario (Deeper Correction): Invalidation: If the price breaks below 19,425 (the lower channel support), it could invalidate the current Elliott Wave count. A break below 19,000 (the Wave 1 high) would confirm that the larger trend has shifted. Alternative Count: If the move from 18,750 to 21,750 was a corrective wave (e.g., a larger Wave B), we could be in a larger Wave C down. Targets for a deeper correction would be: 19,000 (psychological support). 18,448 (1.618 extension of Wave A in the A-B-C correction). 18,250 (the start of the larger wave structure). 6. Key Levels to Watch Support: 19,425 (lower channel boundary and current support). 19,392 (78.6% retracement of Wave 3). 19,359 (1:1 Wave C projection). 19,000 (psychological level and Wave 1 high; a break below this would invalidate the bullish count). Resistance: 20,276 (Wave B high and middle of the channel). 20,833 (previous high within the channel). 21,653.7 (Wave 5 target based on 0.618 extension). 22,250 (upper channel boundary and final Wave 5 target). 7. Conclusion with More Accurate Details Current Wave Position: The price is likely completing Wave 4 of a higher-degree impulsive wave, with the A-B-C correction nearing its end around 19,359–19,425. The deep retracement to 78.6% of Wave 3 (19,392) and the alignment with the lower channel support (19,425) provide strong confluence for a Wave 4 low. Next Move: If the price holds above 19,425 and breaks above 20,276, Wave 5 is likely underway, targeting 21,653.7–22,250. The RSI showing signs of a reversal (bullish divergence) supports this scenario. Trading Strategy: Bullish: Enter a long position on a confirmed bounce above 19,490.7, with a stop-loss below 19,425. Target 20,276 as the first level, followed by 20,833 and 22,250. Bearish: If the price breaks below 19,425, consider a short position with a stop-loss above 19,490.7, targeting 19,000 and potentially 18,448. Risk Management: The deep retracement in Wave 4 suggests higher volatility, so use tight stop-losses and monitor price action closely for confirmation of the next wave.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by MAKFX21
NAS100 Bullish Trading IdeaMarket Structure & Key Levels Bullish Market Structure: The price has been making higher highs and higher lows. 4-Hour Order Block (OB): The price recently reacted from a 4-hour order block, confirming bullish intent. Unmitigated Wick: There’s an unmitigated wick above 20,160, acting as a liquidity target. Liquidity Pool Below: A possible retracement to sweep liquidity before the next bullish push. Trade Setup (ICT) Entry Zone: Look for a retracement to the 19,800 - 19,820 region, which aligns with an order block and potential fair value gap (FVG). Stop-Loss: Below 19,700 (under the liquidity sweep level). First Target (TP1): 19,995 (previous high and potential resistance). Final Target (TP2): 20,160+ (liquidity grab from the unmitigated wick). Confirmation Factors Displacement & FVG: Look for an aggressive bullish push from discounted price levels. London & New York Session Influence: NY session open may trigger liquidity grab before the bullish move.
FX:NAS100Long
by lasinsraj
Navigating NASDAQ: Positioning for a Possible Bounce Next Week - Key Insights: The NASDAQ is presently facing bearish sentiment with a potential downturn in the short term. Investors should be aware of oversold conditions that could lead to a short-term bounce. Cautious optimism prevails among experts regarding a possible correction, suggesting monitoring key resistance levels for signs of reversal. - Price Targets: For investors considering a long position, price targets should be strategically set. - Next week targets: T1: 20,200, T2: 21,000 - Stop levels: S1: 19,000, S2: 18,800 - Recent Performance: The NASDAQ has fallen 12% over the past few weeks, highlighting a bearish trend. This downturn has been mirrored across major stock indices, and recent market volatility has exacerbated the decline. - Expert Analysis: Analysts currently hold a bearish outlook, highlighting a critical support level near 19,195 amidst broader economic uncertainty affecting the NASDAQ. However, signs of a potential rally have emerged, with futures indicating possible movement toward 20,500. - News Impact: The downturn includes NASDAQ's worst day since 2022, which has heavily influenced market sentiment. Analysts are monitoring the Nasdaq 100 with plans for possible expansion into the Russell 2000 and S&P 500, targeting recovery opportunities amidst volatility. While the NASDAQ is under pressure, the potential for a short-term recovery remains plausible. Investors should anticipate volatility, making it crucial to watch key price levels and resistance points for potential market movements next week.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by CrowdWisdomTrading
NAS100 - Stock Market Enters Downtrend?!The index is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index moves down towards the specified demand zone, we can look for further buying opportunities in Nasdaq. A break of the channel ceiling will also continue the short-term upward trend in Nasdaq. According to EPFR data reported by Bank of America, investors withdrew $2.8 billion from equity funds last week, marking the largest outflow of the year so far. Meanwhile, U.S. government bonds saw an inflow of $6.4 billion, the biggest weekly increase since August. Scott Basnett, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, stated in an interview that there are no guarantees to prevent an economic recession. He welcomed the decline in stock markets, viewing it as a sign of a healthy market. Analysts believe this shift in tone—unusual for a Treasury Secretary who typically reassures economic strength—suggests an effort to prepare the public for a possible recession. According to data from the Polymarket betting platform, the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 is currently estimated at 41%. Reuters reports that American households are increasingly pessimistic about the economic outlook. However, the Federal Reserve may be reluctant to respond aggressively to a weakening economy, given growing concerns that the Trump administration’s trade policies could further fuel inflation. These concerns were reflected in financial markets on Friday, as the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey showed a decline in consumer confidence for March. Additionally, consumers now expect inflation to reach 3.9% over the next five years, the highest level in more than 30 years. In an interview with Breitbart, Basnett emphasized the need to remain vigilant against persistent Biden-era inflation and expressed support for deregulation to lower costs. He also stressed that while tackling inflation, the government must also address affordability concerns. Additionally, he backed interest rate cuts to help reduce housing costs and auto loan payments. This week will be packed with major economic events, creating a high-risk environment for precious metals traders amid ongoing geopolitical developments during Trump’s second term. Central banks are back in the spotlight, as several key monetary institutions are set to announce their policy decisions in the coming days: • Tuesday: Bank of Japan • Wednesday: Federal Reserve • Thursday: Swiss National Bank & Bank of England Furthermore, a series of macroeconomic data releases could influence market sentiment, including: • Monday: Retail sales & Empire State Manufacturing Index • Tuesday: Housing starts & building permits • Thursday: Weekly jobless claims, existing home sales & Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in its upcoming meeting. Market participants will closely watch the Fed’s updated economic projections and Jerome Powell’s press conference for insights into future monetary policy. According to a Bloomberg survey, economists anticipate two rate cuts by the Fed this year, likely starting in September. However, despite declining stock indices and rising recession concerns, Powell is expected to maintain a cautious stance, avoiding any rushed rate cuts. While consumer and business confidence has weakened, the Federal Reserve has limited flexibility to lower rates due to persistently high inflation indicators.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ali_PSND
NAS100 1HR // 17 March AnalysisWe can see that the 1 hour downtrend on NAS100 has been broken. Looking to see if the price can retest the drawn support/resistance zone around the 19500.00 area. Potential buys with 20000.00 being a nice target if we see a nice retest from the marked support/resistance zone. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is purely for personal reference and record keeping and should be taken as educational material only, NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE. I will not be responsible for profits or loses due to this analysis.
FX:NAS100Long
by thebrowntrader