RTY LONGGoing in on this RTY, just writing some words so the idea will get posted, simple level entry.
US2000 trade ideas
RTY LONG 2Going in for another go here. Already scooped 1.5r earlier in the session. Same set up. Lets see what happens,
RUT 3/20/22Russell 2000
RUT chart paints one of the best and clear pictures of where our economy stands.
Since topping out in Sept. ’18, RUT broke the trend and went into a sideways market.
In Nov.’20, price broke out of sideways range and continued uptrend.
At breakout price of 1708, price continued uptrend and topped out at 2355.
From there price broke down and close beneath 50ema in May ‘21. This ended the uptrend and sent price into a sideways range.
Price started to range between low of 2100 to high of 2350
Early Nov.’21 break broke out and upwards out of this range in what looked to be the start of new uptrend.
By the end of Nov.’21, price couldn’t hold support and fell back into range. The breakout is now deemed a “False Breakout”.
As price fell back into range, it found itself unable to break and close above 50 and 200 ema.
In Jan.’22, Price broke down from range. This breakdown now signaled a possible start of new downtrend.
Price continued its move downwards and bounced at 1920 area. During this time, we also saw a Death cross between 50 and 200 ema. This cross further confirmed the bearish conditions in the market.
After the breakdown, price pulled back to previous support @ 2100 and bounces off it turning previous support into resistance.
Currently, we are at support turned resistance level after breakdown of range.
The market broke down from this sideways range and we can now label it a “Distribution Stage”.
The Stochastic currently sits at 100, showing us the market is current completely “over-bought”.
The MACD is also under 0 in bearish territory.
We are entering a downtrend and couldn’t be at a better place to enter the market to short.
This is an ideal time to find short set-ups in the stock market.
RTY LongTaking a shot at this reversal here. Double bottom with potential weak divergence. 4hr level hopefully supporting. Looking to see NY open push price back up.
RTY SHORTSome HTF levels being retested atm. Gonna take a shot here, awaiting daily inside bar to be formed. Just came back up on open to retest ltf levels. as i type, is moving down lol.
RUT Russell 2000 Support and ResistanceRUT Russell 2000 bounced from the strong support of $1940 and is heading to the $2180 resistance.
I also think we might see the end of the war soon.
Russia says the first phase of its “military operation” in Ukraine is mostly complete.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Russel Stuck in RangeRussel Index is Currently stuck between a Supply and demand Zone, basically creating a Range.
RUSSELL2000:FUNDAMENTAL NEWS+NEXT TARGET | LONG SETUPRUSSELL 2000 FORECAST:
The Russell 2000 tumbles as U.S. inflation rises at the fastest pace since 1982
Lack of progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine also weighs on sentiment, accelerating the sell-off on Wall Street
The Russell 2000 near-term outlook remains bearish from a technical perspective
The Russell 2000 fell Thursday in midday trading, sinking about 1.3% to 1,990, weighed down by risk-averse mood due to rising geopolitical tensions and rampant inflation in the United States. Investor sentiment improved briefly yesterday on expectations that the crisis between Russia and Ukraine could begin to de-escalate soon, but the winds shifted again today after high-level talks between the two countries' foreign ministers failed to produce any progress towards a ceasefire.
To make matters worse, U.S. CPI continued to accelerate and reached 7.9% year-on-year in February, its highest level since 1982, driven by rising fuel, food and housing costs.The commodity market price shock of the past few days did not influence data for this period, so we can effectively say that inflation has not yet peaked, and that much higher readings are likely in the coming months.
Mounting price pressures will lead the Fed to raise interest rates multiple times in 2022, starting at next week's meeting, although the hiking cycle may be less aggressive than anticipated earlier in the year amid extraordinary uncertainty stemming from the military conflict in Eastern Europe. In any case, the direction of travel is toward less accommodation and tighter financial conditions over the forecast horizon.
The transition to a more restrictive monetary policy environment, coupled with weakening activity, runaway inflation, and the war in Ukraine, will ensure that volatility remains elevated for the foreseeable future, complicating the equity market recovery, particularly for cyclically oriented companies that are highly dependent on healthy GDP growth. This leaves the economically sensitive Russell 2000 in a precarious situation and vulnerable to near-term weakness.
From a price action perspective, the outlook is bleak for the Russell 2000. Looking at the daily chart, we can see that the index is currently trading below its 200-day, 100-day and 50-day simple moving averages, and has been making lower highs and lower lows in recent months, two bearish signals that reinforce the argument that the path of least resistance is south.
In this regard, if the small and mid-cap stock benchmark stays on a downward trajectory, bears may attempt to launch on assault on 1,890/1,895. This technical support, defined by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020/2021 rally, has been tested twice in recent weeks, successfully repelling sellers each time. Should it be tested again, we may see a bounce from these levels, but if the floor breached, all bets are off, with a breakout exposing the 1,815 region.
On the flip side, if buyers return and bid price higher, resistance is seen near the 2,065 area, where the March high aligns with the 50-day SMA and a descending trendline in play since November last year. If bulls manage to push the index above this barrier, the next upside focus appears at 2,105 (February high). A sustained move above 2,105 and monthly higher high is required to resuscitate buying momentum and improve the near-term outlook.
Russell 2000-the next target is 1700.As we can see, the price has broken through the important support line of 2100 and has not been able to return back for more than two months. Then, we will consider this a confirmation of the truth of this breakdown. Now, let's pay attention to the wave structure. The falls occurred in the form of a pulse wave (1-2-3-4-5). This means that despite a slight consolidation, the downward movement will continue to the next support level of 1700.
How Many Resistances Does Russell Have ?I count 8 resistance and still below the 200Day exponential and simple averages. It's great place to the put short position.
Quiz..?A quiz is usually a short test and often doesn't have a huge impact on your grades as a test has. But this one could have a huge impact on your portfolio..!
I provide the chart and the cheat sheet.
For more help you can look at my previous analysis as well:
or
or
You like to learn more, read this article:
www.investopedia.com
Question:
How you can make money out of this analysis?
Write your answer in the comment section
Best,
Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Russell 2000, The Weakest LinkFolks, Inflation affects small companies more than the large-cap stocks. Capitalism supports the survival of the fittest businesses. Many large-cap companies can dominate the smaller competitors in a rising price environment as inflation is a more significant threat for companies with less capital. Rising interest rates that increase financing and debt servicing costs also weigh on profit margins. Inflation can be a damaging beast for the small-cap arena.
let me know about your thoughts on Russell 2000, Compared to S&P 500 will it fall much harder during the economic hardship cycle?
Not financial advice.
RUT trailing on long positionsLocking in profits on the RUT longs. Bulls now as impressive on the resistance as I'd have hoped they'd be for a continued long trade.
What is going on in Small Caps?After successfully predicting a 10-15% decline in Russell 2000 now we need to look at it once again..!
I think the top of the orange box could be a strong resistance level and the relief rally will be ended there..!
Also, this could be the SOW part of Wyckoff model:
Best,
Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Exiting RUT shorts and going longRUT short squeeze looks very much back on the table. This could be a super interesting move. Positioning long and will aggressively add to position if we trend up. I think this is is really strong above the last lows. Bullish trades cut under there,
Russell 2000 Macro Outlook1750 within 4 weeks, followed by melt-up to 3000. 40-60% bear market after. 1.618 Fibonacci will be respected in cycle top. Top H2 '22 / H1 '23. Unfortunately, fundamental supporting research is private.
RUT short Looking for two RUT shorts. One from the current price and if we get that will take profit 1789 and re-load into a bounce.
Russell 2000 Wave 4 TriangleLooks like the RUT 2000 possibly finished a wave 4 triangle. If we take out yesterdays lows that should confirm.Look for new lows next week.
RUT is the reversal areaRUT: this week or next week will decide if RUT will bounce and hit its targets, or go down and to stop loss and indicate further down trend.
Russell 2000: FUNDAMENTAL + NEWS INFOs | LONG SETUPRUSSELL 2000 FORECAST:
The Russell 2000 tumbles as U.S. inflation rises at the fastest pace since 1982
Lack of progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine also weighs on sentiment, accelerating the sell-off on Wall Street
The Russell 2000 near-term outlook remains bearish from a technical perspective
The Russell 2000 fell Thursday in midday trading, sinking about 1.3% to 1,990, weighed down by risk-averse mood due to rising geopolitical tensions and rampant inflation in the United States. Investor sentiment improved briefly yesterday on expectations that the crisis between Russia and Ukraine could begin to de-escalate soon, but the winds shifted again today after high-level talks between the two countries' foreign ministers failed to produce any progress towards a ceasefire.
To make matters worse, U.S. CPI continued to accelerate and reached 7.9% year-on-year in February, its highest level since 1982, driven by rising fuel, food and housing costs.The commodity market price shock of the past few days did not influence data for this period, so we can effectively say that inflation has not yet peaked, and that much higher readings are likely in the coming months.
Mounting price pressures will lead the Fed to raise interest rates multiple times in 2022, starting at next week's meeting, although the hiking cycle may be less aggressive than anticipated earlier in the year amid extraordinary uncertainty stemming from the military conflict in Eastern Europe. In any case, the direction of travel is toward less accommodation and tighter financial conditions over the forecast horizon.
The transition to a more restrictive monetary policy environment, coupled with weakening activity, runaway inflation, and the war in Ukraine, will ensure that volatility remains elevated for the foreseeable future, complicating the equity market recovery, particularly for cyclically oriented companies that are highly dependent on healthy GDP growth. This leaves the economically sensitive Russell 2000 in a precarious situation and vulnerable to near-term weakness.
US2000 is on bullish momentum! | 9th March 2022Prices are on bullish momentum. We se the potential for a bounce from our buy entry at 1924.02 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take Profit at 2078.79 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci Projection. Our bullish bias is further supported by RSI depicting bullish momentum.
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Europe Breached Support. America is FollowingThe markets are weighing mainly two events, the geopolitical environment and the interest rates. Sadly the world has witnessed the conflict in Ukraine, a a war that nobody will win, and everybody will lose. The markets always react negatively to bad news, and uncertainty.
On December 2021 the SP500 reached an All Time Highs (ATH) as well as the Dow Jones, but not the Russell 2000. "The Russell 2000 is managed by FTSE Russell and is widely regarded as a bellwether of the U.S. economy because of its focus on smaller companies that focus on the U.S. market."
Russel declined and to this point is pointing below the 90 MA in the Madrid Ribbon. This is bearish as this acts as an important support/resistance level, if this goes down then the market most likely will dive to test the support at the 200 ma.
The markets in Europe had a big crash last week, sending the main indexes like DAX, CAC, FTSE to bear market territory. The world markets are interwoven, and in tandem, what affects the markets in Europe will affect the markets in America sooner rather than later.
People are buying protection, the VIX has been most of the time above the 20 level, which signals problems. Currently it's above the 30 level and it closed above the previous peak from November 2021. Usually volatility has been below the main Resistance level of the ribbons, but recently it broke above the 200ma in the Weekly timeframe, this is absolutely not good. The market senses something big is coming.
The interest rates set by the fed, which have been broadcasted overtly to be 0.25 by the end of march, is like a big "Road Closed" sign miles from the construction site. Traditionally the Fed has been announcing the interest rates on the same day in their conferences. The pressure at this time mounts because of inflation. The main lever that controls the economy is the interest rate, the lower, the more accessible becomes the money, the higher the more expensive it becomes. When the economy has easy access to money it grows, but if it grows too much and the supply doesn't grow at the same pace the imbalance points to the bid side and it makes the goods and services more expensive.
The two main indicators to monitor the economy for the purpose of the interest rates are inflation and employment, when employment is at its lowest levels it means there's full employment and a working economy, it's the time to start raising rates to prevent the economy from overheating and making inflation go higher or even out of control. Once the economy slows down interest rates will have to reach a level that allows stability and avoid the economy to stall and send it to a recession. This is known as deleverage of the economy and it hurts because we see slow growth, fall in the financial markets, more expensive credit.
The formula is simple (not easy):
I. INTEREST RATE HIKE -> Lower Economic Growth -> Slower Inflation higher unemployment.
II. INTEREST RATE CUT -> Higher Economic Growth -> Faster Inflation, lower unemployment.
The economy deleverage can be smooth, but it requires the Fed to be raising rates when they can, not when they must.
“Fear is a stronger emotion that hope, which is why bear markets are always swifter than bull markets.” — Unknown
: Investopedia : What is the Russell 2000 Index
: How the Economic Machine Works, by Ray Dalio youtu.be
Small-Caps Are Soon Looking To RallyWe have a Double Bottom at the 800 Day Simple Moving Average and at the PCZ of a Bullish ABCD and are trying to break free from a Downtrend we've been in for the last several weeks if all goes as expected we will rally towards the 200 Day Simple Moving Average up near $2,220
