USDOLLAR trade ideas
USDOLLAR Down Trend Continues But Is OversoldFXCM's USD index, the USDOLLAR remains in a downtrend. The left chart shows the daily time frame and the index is below its black 20-day SMA. The SMA is also pointing down confirming the downwards pressure. We note that the RSI is well below 20 and is oversold (blue rectangle). Moreover, we are looking to see of the index is at support (red shaded horizontal). The right chart shows the RSI at 50 and the hourly EMAs on top of each other. We are looking to see how these resolve because if the EMAs cross bullishly and the RSI moves above 50 than it suggests that we are at the support level as denoted by the red shaded horizontal. We continue to watch.
DOW JONES on more before we upif you consider selling the breakout then remember to put it on breakeven or take profit fast,then we will be looking to bounce for us look for buy setup
Structural change in USD vs GBP and EUR (post covid stagnation)USD has made a substantial "lower low" and this is matched by the EUR making a substantial "higher high".
However GBP is failing to keep pace and is not making the higher high...
USD also coming into some lows as NFP approaches tomorrow.
I anticipate USD to drive down to complete the sell-off and then we may see a bullish shift (and bearish EUR +GBP etc).
As for signals - look for daily swing lows (USD) and daily swing highs (EUR + GBP).
FX:USDOLLAR
FX_IDC:EURUSD
FX:GBPUSD
US Dollar DJ Index- Hiting long term uptrend support levels. Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index was a measure of the U.S. dollar’s value equally weighted against four of the world’s most liquidly traded currencies:
Euro (EUR), 25% weight
British Pound sterling (GBP), 25% weight
Japanese Yen (JPY), 25% weight
Australian Dollar (AUD), 25% weight
The DollarDear Traders,
It has been a while that I shared my dollar views. Before price broke out of the daily range, I was extremely bullish for the dollar, but since we tanked there was not much to do regarding planning a bullish trade.
However, price finally found our daily demand area, combined with the weekly long-term trendline, which will probably push this dollar higher towards at least 12480.
Keep your eyes on it and look for plays on EU. The intra-day charts for USDollar already showed us some bullish pressure, EURO should provide the same later today for a potential move.
Best regards,
NewCapitalFX
USDOLLAR Downside Momentum Increases On the DailyThe above chart shows FXCM's USD index, the USDOLLAR. It is below its EMAs, with the green 5-day EMA below the orange 13-day EMA, and the orange 13-day EMA below the black 34-day EMA. Moreover, all three EMAs are showing angle and separation to the downside (red ellipse). This is a sign of strong downwards momentum and as long as this formation holds weakness is likely to persist. We also note that the support around the 12,420 level (green shaded horizontal) has been broken to the downside. If price drops further, this level is likely to evolve from support into resistance.
Titán Elliot Views on USDOLLAR INDEXPosible Corto al finalizar triangulo contracto.
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USDOLLAR's EMAs Reverse on Daily timeFurther to our previous article , FXCM's USD index, USDOLLAR, has reversed its technical makeup. The EMAs are looking to turn negative (green ellipse). If the EMAs develop angle and separation to the downside the green 5-day EMA will be below the orange 13-day EMA, and the orange 13-day EMA will be below the black 34-day EMA. This will be a testament to the Fed's unlimited QE policy, which is looking to devalue the greenback. As long as the USDOLLAR continues to churn sideways the EMAs will continue to whipsaw. We will watch the situation for a trend to develop; this which will make price action clearer.
USDOLLAR EMAs Move Into Bullish Stack on DailyThe above chart is FXCM's USD index, USDOLLAR. Further to our previous article , the daily USDOLLAR chart's EMAs have now moved into a bullish stack. I.e. the green 5-day EMA is above the orange 10-day EMA, and the orange 10-day EMA is above the black 34-day EMA. If the EMAs develop angle and separation the greenback will be moving higher despite the unlimited QE policy of the Federal reserve. The movement into the greenback is typical of fund allocation to a perceived safe haven.
USDOLLAR Could it get Strong?Could we see the Dow Jones break the key daily resistance zone and push on up to the weekly resistance area? Patience and time will tell us.
USDOLLAR Moving Closer Towards Bullish EMA StackThis chart shows the daily time frame of FXCM's USD index - the USDOLLAR. The EMAs are close to moving into a bullish stack (green ellipse). This will happen if the orange 10-day EMA crosses above the black 34-day EMA. If this happens the green 5-day EMA will be above the orange 10-day EMA, and the orange 10-day EMA will be above the black 34-day EMA. If the EMAs then develop angle and separation it will be due to an increase in the underlying bullish momentum of the greenback. This scenario is indicative of sentiment moving towards risk-off and the reallocation of capital towards the havens.
USDOLLAR Fighting To Stay Bullish On DailyThe charts show FXCM's USD index - the USDOLLAR. The left chart shows the daily time frame, where price has crossed above the black 20-day SMA (aqua ellipse). The RSI is fight to stay on the bullish side of 50 (blue rectangle). The right chart shows the hourly time frame. Here, the EMAs are looking to cross bullishly (green ellipse). The short-term RSI is already on the positive side of 50, denoting an underlying bullish moment. If the EMAs do cross and develop angle and separation, the hourly swing will support the daily RSI in its battle to move to the bullish side of 50.
USDOLLAR Strength Is Challenging SMA Resistance on DailyThe charts show FXCM's USD index (USDOLLAR). The left charts shows the daily index powering into the black 20-SMA (aqua ellipse). If it overcomes this SMA resistance and the daily RSI moves above 50 (blue rectangle), it will be bullish developments. The right chart shows a strong intraday impulse with the EMAs (5-hour EMA >10-hour EMA) in bullish mode (green ellipse) and the short-term RSI well on the bullish side of 50. If these dynamics sustain, it indicates money moving into the safety of the greenback and will denote that the market is potentially moving into a risk-off environment.
USDOLLAR's 20-DAY SMA Holding ResistanceThe charts refer to FXCM's USD index (USDOLLAR). On the left, the daily chart shows that the index tried to overcome its black 20-day SMA resistance but was unsuccessful (aqua ellipse). The SMA remains pointing down and the daily RSI is on the bearish side of 50. The right chart shows the hourly time frame. Here too, the RSI denotes an underlying bearish momentum (green rectangle). If the EMAs develop angle and separation to the downside, the greenback will be under pressure as risk-sentiment moves capital towards risk-on instruments.
USDOLLAR Bearish Sentiments, Short SetupDow Jones looking bearish, -level 12523 is holding and is in the supply zone of 12578.
Okay then, take care.
:)
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USDOLLAR Challenges Moving Average Resistance On DailyThe charts show FXCM's USD index: USDOLLAR. The left has the index challenging the black 20-day SMA. A cross above will be bullish and we will look to the RSI to confirm this by moving above 50. The right chart shows the hourly time frame. Here, the EMAs are in bullish mode (green ellipse) and the RSI is above 50, indicating strong positive momentum (green rectangle). If the hourly chart holds these dynamics, the daily will move above the SMA and if the SMA follows the index up, the broader market will be moving into a risk-off sentiment.
USDOLLAR longI think there is a high probability that this is a wyckoff reversal pattern and some shorts are going to get squeezed for a bit. I don't think I will get married to this trade but for now it looks like a good contender to start off the week. I have a video on the wyckoff method on my youtube channel if you have any questions. www.youtube.com
Techical and Fundamental analysis of traditional markets 32900-3030on the SPX has so far proven to be a strong area of resistance, but stocks are still on an uptrend. They are at a make or break stage in my opinion. Lots of people are losing their minds as stocks keep rallying, and even though I believe it is very likely that we see new ATHs on the SPX500 & NAS100... I am still of the opinion that eventually the rally will fail and roll over. It is all about understanding the structure of these products, markets and MONEY. For this reason it is better to play everything based on TA and not FA. FA is really blurry and there are many variables. (All my charts are below, including some ideas)
For now the printing press and retail optimism have been major reasons for this rally. Currently people believe Central banks have everything under control, which along with all the fresh money hitting the market and a 'buy the lockdown' (short squeeze). I don't believe they really do have everything under control and the issues are massive, but at the end of the day they want to step in and buy stocks... and they won't buy them 10% below ATHs. If the USD was pegged to gold, I'd expect an 80% correction from ATHs, but because it isn't... we might be lucky to get to 1600. Many stocks will fall 80% from their ATHs, but this doesn't mean indices will as most money is concentrated are certain stocks. Many companies will fail as they won't get a bailout and especially small to medium ones. This will have big effects on the market, but with bond yields going at 0 or below, and infinite money... it probably is better to buy Amazon or something like it that buy bonds ones they get there.
So I'd like to see the SPX500 cleanly break below 2840 and close below before thinking about shorting. On my other idea I have a clean chart of what I'd like to see to short. I was getting from neutral-bullish to neutral-bearish on the USD, but I am still confused. The reason is the DXY or DJI USD index still haven't truly broken down. EURUSD and GBPUSD went up yesterday, but the USD went up against every other pair so it is still confusing... I still believe the dollar has 2-3% room to fall but that it will resume its uptrend. For now I see it more as range bound with medium term bearish bias and long term bullish. I've been very clear on where my long term bias switches completely. One thing that is clear to me is that you can't be bearish the USD and bearish on equities. So far this has been quite clear, because if we get another down turn the dollar might go down initially along with yields (down)... but then it will most likely go much much higher.
As for oil I was wrong short term. I've been bearish for so long that I wasn't able to switch my bias. For now I think we are in a resistance zone, but there could be some upside. From my basic understanding of that market and how the hole thing works... is that oil is going much much lower. I am pretty certain it will hit 0 again, but I have no idea when. There isn't much more capacity, there isn't a way to force many cuts (eventually many will on their own), but the problems are massive and I think demand over the next year will be down at least 30%. No idea how will they be able to cut 30% of global production and where they are going to store the oil if nobody wants to buy it while they can't stop taking it out of the ground.
As for Gold still stuck below the R3 yearly pivot and slowly breaking down. Could it be that the USD is about to resume its uptrend, while Gold and SPX break down? Of course it can be. Both SPX and Gold look fragile here, but their HFT structure is bullish, so I don't want to rush anything. Personally I prefer to play these stuff by going long the USD against EM currencies & oil shorts. At least that's where I put more weight. SPX and Gold have cleaner charts for entries and exits, but for shorts they are definitely sub optimal even if you increase the size. They also both benefit tremendously from money printing while EM currencies and oil don't (at least not as much)
