US Dollar Index Macro View 01/12 - G20 meeting outcome?The US Dollar fell after Fed chair Jerome Powell surprised the market by saying that interest rates are “just below” neutral levels. He believes economy will continue growth with low unemployment and inflation around 2%, but he thinks moving too quickly could risk shortening the US expansion. Personal income and spending grew more than expected but jobless claims increased and pending home sales fell sharply. FOMC minutes did not help the dollar even though Fed officials saw the need for another rate hike. Even though there is a pickup in spending, the momentum in the economy is slowing. We might see if US delay additional tariffs with China in the G20 meeting until further talks, we could see a rally in equities and currencies. Upcoming data on the calendar that could market moving are Fed Chair Powell testifies and the non-farm payroll.
The US Dollar Index chart last week range between 12300 & 12225 levels. Where the views still remain as unchanged from last week. The long-term constructive for bull, till price stay below 12150 levels going forward. Looking into medium-term where the US Dollar Index could continue its way towards 12330 levels progresses. The short-term suggesting sideways might be seen for upcoming week till prices break above 12260 to constructive for bull or bounce down to 12200 levels to retest support. Overall, the medium-term bull structure prevails until prices stays below 12100 levels.
ForexBriefcase deepest condolences to former US President George W. Bush. RIP.
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