Wait for the head and shoulder! USD may rise in the longtermYou can see two head&shoulder in the chart. For the frist pattern, it's the beginning bearlish trend of USDDOLLAR.Now, the price is out of the decline channnel,it means that the decline trend has already change ! And the MACD is above the 0 zone.If the head&shoulder bottom is formed ( it has not been formed yet!), the trend of USD will competely change! 12043 will be the key point!
USDOLLAR trade ideas
Potential head and shoulder in USDOLLAR-bullish way for USDOLLARYou can see two head&shoulder in the chart. For the frist pattern, it's the beginning bearlish trend of USDDOLLAR.
Now, the price is out of the decline channnel,it means that the decline trend has already change ! And the MACD is above the 0 zone.
If the head&shoulder bottom is formed ( it has not been formed yet!), the trend of USD will competely change! 12043 will be the key point!
US Dollar downtrend over?Here is the US Dollar index with a nice inverse Head & Shoulders, and at the moment it is currently breaking the descending trendline, which is the first sign of a possible end of the downtrend. The second sign of a possible end of the downtrend is the bullish divergence on the RSI. The final sign will be a break of the neckline of H&S, and we could see the US Dollar rallying from there.
USD: Bearish resumption or bullish breakout?Following up on my recent ideas of eurusd long and gold long and usdchf short ...Looking at the us dollar index chart, it also confirms that we are at potential reversal zone and a key trading area. We are testing the top of the channel and the horizontal resistance and key high at 12012.
As i mentioned earlier, we need a fundamental/economic catalyst to push the us dollar higher, as of now, we do not have it. So i am in favor of the bearish resumption scenario.
However, as a trader i should trade what i see and adapt with what the charts give me, so i would stop and reverse my bias from bearish to bullish on a break above this resistance area.
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Technician
USDollar Analysis
We have seen the MAs crossover on the monthly, weekly and daily timeframes, indicating future bearish momentum.
I foresee price coming down to the 11650 monthly support area which lines up with the monthly upward trend line that could result in a 3rd retest of the trend line which could take us to new highs of 13254 which is weekly resistance and lines up with the 127.2% fib extension level.
However if further dollar weakness arises along the coming weeks, this could mean we could break the monthly trend line to the downside, with our next immediate target being 11325 and 11000 as the next target should bearish momentum continue.
However my short term bias for the dollar is bearish & long term bullish.
US Dollar birds eye viewThe US dollar has been bullish for the last 4 weeks, but could we see a retracement before further upward movement?
On the daily/weekly chart we are about to hit a possible resistance level at 0.382 Fibonacci which is close to the counter trend line, and also on the daily chart the RSI seems close to overbought. Long term i still think we can ride the bull. Good luck