USDOLLAR trade ideas
The USDollar Is Still Bullish | DXY is Outdated!This is not DXY, which is a different measurement of the dollar. The DXY is outdated, yet some trade books and even traders still look at it randomly over more accurate dollar indices, such as the trade-weighted dollar index established by the US Federal reserve.
So far, a trade-weited index is not available on Tradingview. There is also the Wall Street Journal Dollar Index called BUXX that is also not available on Tradingview.
Initially, DXY reflected the US trade partnership with the Euro, but it was never updated as US trade partnerships expanded globally. So, the trade weights in DXY is outdated. You will not get an accurate picture of what is going on.
The Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index can be found here at the US Federal Reserve's website: fred.stlouisfed.org
They have also written an article called "Is a Strong Dollar Better than a Weak Dollar?" research.stlouisfed.org
And even if the dollar becomes weaker than ever, this would be good for exports and for stocks. Money will pour in more to support the US economy because of the value that it offers to investors.
US Dollar ReversalUS Labor data showing signs of improvement in terms of wage growth and a low unemployment rate following the seasonal factors that caused weak labor data in the first quarter. As this upbeat data factors into retail spending and investments the greenback will find support especially with an anticipated rate hike in June. Key support anticipated at 12,050 - 12,150 levels.
US Dollar ForecastTechnically forming a descending triangle since the start of 2017, the US Dollar is positioned for a technical breakout in the run up to the third quarter.
Fundamentally the US dollar is weakening given softer data likely to postpone rate increases until any other further notice. Administratively, the US is at risk and investors seem to be fleeing to safe havens. This is however not just an American phenomenon as prevalent risks are spreading to various locations around the world.
Should the US Dollar break to the downside, it is likely that we will be testing 11,800 - 11,900 support levels, with opportunity to sell on rallies.