expecting a fake outthen next week will have good news in NFP, to move upwards to find the FOMC big bear candle.
USDOLLAR trade ideas
USDollar AnalisisFrom my point of view. USDollar is forming Bearish Bat Pattern in TF Daily. There will be a fresh Demand on FIBO ration 88.6.
For a long term focus on Sell USD
Let see what's next !A new up trend for the last rally forming ? or just a kiss & goodbye ? will see !
USDOLLAR DJINDEX FXCM short on monthly chartSL = 12958
ENTRY ORDER = 12295
TP1 = 11632
Two positions with the same stop loss and x1 target for the first position
The stop loss of the second position to breakeven when the first position hits the target1.
The second position has no target, only exit
Risk= 2% of account capital (1% each position)
#USD Wave 4 still in progress Back to 1225-300 support. If we break .886 at 12280, looking for ab=cd to complete at 12115 to test multiyear channel support and EurUsd to test 1.10
INDEX STANDS AT CRITICAL SUPPORT, H&S NECKLINE AND TRENDLINEIndex stands at the junction point of a H&S neckline and a
trendline going back to June 2016. The starting of next week
may give clues to wether index will find support or if it will
break the TL and neckline.
If index breaks below the 12300 level on a closing basis
and the neckline is fixed to this level (disregarding the spike
to test the Yearly PP) a target of the H&S pattern is found
at 11990 which coincide perfectly with the 127 extension of
an ABCD pattern forming from the top. This level is also
close to the Yearly S1 at 11940.
If Index finds support by the TL upward resistance is found
at the Kumo cloud and right shoulder high. If index returns
right back to the top of the right should this would put in
question the H&S pattern altogether, thus the bounce shouldn´t
be to strong in a bearish scenario.
Long USDOLLAR around 12250I am looking for a double bottom, without significantly breaking through the previous highs. The facts that it didn't touch (missed) the support trend line and that it didn't make break from the old resistance are short term bearish of the USDOLLAR. Also it is below RSI 50 and its momentum is clearly bearish.
When the indexs gets near 12260 and the RSI 30-35, I am going to be going long.
USDOLLAR Short D Leg CompletionUSDollar has rallied after the 2008 financial crash. I believe this is because of bailouts to many banks which in turn may have given a false run. I believe we are looking at the completion of and AB-CD formation. Due to the state of the US, and turmoil in the white house, I believe we can be looking at a Bearish Dollar for the next couple years. Price must break 12600 for me to believe the dollar will continue to be Bullish
USDOLLAR VIEW12566 (QMM) shall be the place for sniper entry during big news such as FOMC or NFP but market might not moving so fast this week as NFP, so I anticipate it might be a possible destination for FOMC March 16, 2017 before a big let out (which I anticipate USD will not hike rate this month).
12533 onwards will be an alert zone where price moving back into supply zone.
For the time being, USD is in the move of corrective wave, and I anticipate 12385 shall end this move and shall hit a higher high than last week 12452.
Demand Zone: 12340
Demand QMM: 12313
USDOLLAR INDEX - USD Long BiasTe chs
1. We are trading above the high of JAN 2016 which is a very significant level (S/R)
2. The Willis Zone bounce indicates a highly probable leg to upside
3. Golden Ratio Correction increases odds of a leg up
4. Weekly Close above previous 5 weekly candles
Fundi es
In light of the FEDs likelihood of an interest rate hike, bulls will be coming in strong potentially pushing FX:USDOLLAR into NEW HIGHS
Personal Note
I am not trying to predict the exact movements of price. I am just pointing to my bias on the weekly timeframe. I will go long and short the USD during 2017.
"Its not about trying to be right, its about making money" - Ned Davis
"I profit and I will let others be the prophet" - Rodrigo Antonio
Warm Regards,
