VIX to teens coming soonVIX has been trading high, it's doing the same pattern since the 90s. I expect market will fuel and finally bounce on VIX following this trend.
VOLX trade ideas
VIX/SPXTouched a significant support area, can consolidate for months however and price action still can lead further, nevertheless this indicator implies that long term positioning is unattractive.
VIX/VVIX Divergence before large drawdownsJust happened to be playing with a few things on tradingview today, thinking of new ways to identify trade opportunities. I often have to keep reminding myself to zoom out to see the bigger picture. This is one of those instances where I might have stumbled upon something useful for very long term trade trends.
As many know, VIX is an extremely useful indicator of market sentiment, it also signifies part of what makes up extrinsic value of options contracts. On the longer term time frame, you can see in a bull market volatility slowly compressing lower and lower. Lower highs, lower lows. Eventually, that trend starts to reverse as more and more large players maybe begin to take profits and go short, and more options hedging happen towards the downside.
VVIX is a further still derivative of that. It's the measure of volatility of volatility. What I did today was take VIX and divide it by VVIX and see what pattern emerged. At a glance, it's not far off VIX by itself, but, I did notice that weeks or even a couple months before a large market downmove, it gives a little more advance warning that a big sell off was imminent. A solid warning is the lowest low followed by two higher lows, as seen here:
If I instead plot VIX by itself, you see a double, maybe triple bottom at near enough the same low before you get a higher low. In the case of the second half of 2018, there actually wasn't an advanced warning at all:
But, what VIX by itself does show, that VIX/VVIX did not, is a lower high when the market found bottom in October/November 2022. VIX showed a lower high, VIX/VVIX shows the highest high at that point. So, always worth glancing at both on a long term chart if you're looking for very long term bets on the market and trying what normally is considered a fool's errand to call the tops and bottoms of every bear and bull cycle.
It might still be a fool's errand, but maybe this helps some of us get a little closer to being able to pull that off.
With that being said, we have just set a new low in both VIX and VIX/VVIX for the year, even though we just had a down week (6/20-23/2023), I'm not convinced we stay down for long until maybe I see such a pattern appear again with higher lows appearing in VIX/VVIX.
VIX compression is due to endThe chart shows that by next Friday, the VIX's big decline may finally be over.
VIX BOTTOMED OUT WITH BULLISH MACD CROSS OVERThe vix is trading near all time lows for the last 5 years. The bottom channel has been very accurate in the past. Great buy right now as something will cause the vix to move up very soon!
Observing VIXNow a lot of people are posting long ideas that it will blow up.
I am framing this idea as neutral.
Since we have a contradiction.
Consider.
1. The Heikin Ashi weekly candle is consolidating by breaking through a bullish wedge. Yes, it is definitely a very reversal pattern.
2. Two small Kumo clouds (both red and green) are floating over candles. Their size tells us that we don't have much resistance at this level. The Tenkan and Kijun lines are below the clouds, but that's not that important in this situation. What is more important is that the indicator is drawing us a declining red Kumo cloud and we can't tell if it will progress down further. Sometimes these "little red cloud, little green cloud, expanding bigger red cloud" constructions are a very implicit threat. We don't know how much its lower boundary will drop before it marks its end...And note again, this is a weekly chart, not some 4 hour chart...We'll have to watch all spring to see what happens.
3. Next. SQZMOM shows descending red bars and two gray crosses, which we have not seen for a long time. This does not augur well for the upside. In fact, on the weekly Heikin Ashi grey crosses were 3 years ago... Only with green bars and they worked out in full... SQZMOM tells us about weak growth prospects of the VIX.
4. However, we see a hidden bullish divergence on Stochastic RSI. This comes into contradiction with point 3.
5. I also looked at the latitude indication which indicates that the highs have started to dominate the lows. This is a bullish sign. But it is also inconsistent with points 2 and 3.
We'll just have to watch to see.
32.4 level is extremely important.
Overeager VIX Bulls Will Continue Getting SlaughteredMuch too early to go long the VIX.
No trendlines needed.
Thanks for playing.
VIX has filled the pending long level. Update to:
All analysis is explained in the previous post. This has triggered the long now. Shorting VIX put spreads and buying calls.
Is there more Volatility Coming? The VIX indication of fear in the markets has been on a strong downtrend into upward support which has been respected for quite some time.
Long VIX, Short Equities.
VIX getting lower and lowerVIX here compared with Nasdaq Index.
The longer it remains the at these levels, the higher the probability that markets will reverse.
The Vix upside downHere is the Vix upside down. It seems easier to see and draw the trend lines. We can see the likely path of the vix. The options expire this week.
SPX Short: At resistance and VIX is upBased on trendline projected from the last 2 peaks, it seems like S&P has reached another resistance. The VIX is strangely up. This means that there are more puts being opened 23-30 days out and thus causing VIX to go up. Protection is being bought. No matter, it is important to realise that the risk-reward is now favoring the short side.
Vicky's Undressin'She gettin' hot.
First test 21, second test 29.
Probably 3-5 day spike then cool off before it gets going later in 2023.
Needs sustained breakout above downtrend line around 14.60-14.65
VIX up? Not yetFX:VOLX is still trading in the middle of the downtrend channel from its peak the week before Memorial Day. Watch for a breakout, but it hasn't happened as of this writing.
VIX BUY/SELL SignalsThis study attempts to predict buy sell signals on VIX. Can be used to buy puts or calls on AMEX:SPY
WORLD'S TRADING TITANS: The Top 10 Traders Who Ruled the Market.This article is about the world of iconic traders. They've left a profound mark on the world of trading, inspiring countless traders with their strategies and insights.
Jesse Livermore
Jesse Livermore, often referred to as the "Great Bear of Wall Street," was a self-taught trader who started his journey at the age of 14 and became one of the most influential traders of his time. He made (and lost) several fortunes betting against the market during the 1907 Panic and the 1929 Crash.
Livermore's trading strategy was heavily based on price movements and market psychology, rather than intrinsic value of companies. He was known for his supreme discipline, focusing on timing, price patterns and his well-known adage: “The big money is not in the individual fluctuations but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.”
One of Livermore's core principles was the importance of letting the market, rather than emotions, dictate when to buy and sell. He believed in following the big market trend, also known as trend following. His rules around cutting losses quickly, letting profits run, and adding to winning positions are still religiously followed by many traders.
Lastly, Livermore emphasized the importance of patience in trading. He famously said, "It was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting...Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon." This highlights the importance of waiting for the right opportunities and not overtrading, a lesson that remains relevant for traders today.
Livermore's life serves as both an inspiration and a cautionary tale for traders, reminding us of the potential rewards and risks that come with trading.
George Soros
George Soros is a legendary trader known as "The Man Who Broke the Bank of England." In 1992, he bet against the British Pound, believing that it was overvalued relative to other currencies, notably the Deutsche Mark. His bet paid off, earning his fund an estimated $1 billion in a single day.
Soros' trading style falls under a global macro strategy, which involves making large bets on economic trends in various asset classes like currencies, bonds, and commodities across the globe. His ability to detect significant changes in economic conditions and market sentiment, combined with an aggressive risk tolerance, contributed to his extraordinary profits.
Central to Soros' approach is the concept of reflexivity, a theory he developed. Reflexivity posits that market perceptions can shape the underlying economic fundamentals, which in turn influence market perceptions, creating a feedback loop. According to Soros, markets are not always in equilibrium or accurately reflecting fundamentals, and these discrepancies can create lucrative trading opportunities.
Soros has been a prominent figure not just in trading, but also in philanthropy and politics. His trading career serves as a testament to the potential of a global macro strategy and the importance of understanding both market sentiment and macroeconomic fundamentals when making trading decisions. Despite his success, Soros' strategy involves a high level of risk and requires deep knowledge of global economics, and thus may not be suitable for all traders.
Paul Tudor Jones
Paul Tudor Jones is one of the most successful traders in the world, known for his ability to navigate and profit from volatile markets. He gained fame after predicting and profiting handsomely from the 1987 stock market crash, a feat which earned him a legendary status in the trading world.
Jones' trading style is predominantly macro, meaning he makes bets based on economic trends and events around the world. He trades in a variety of markets, including equities, commodities, currencies, and bonds, and is known for his versatility and adaptability.
An avid user of technical analysis, Jones employs chart patterns, price movements and other analytical tools to identify trading opportunities. He combines this with a deep understanding of market fundamentals to create a comprehensive trading strategy.
One of Jones' most well-known tenets is his focus on risk management. He is often quoted saying, "If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is simple: Get out." This reflects his belief that protecting capital and managing losses is more important than chasing profits, a strategy that has served him well throughout his career.
Jones is also known for his philanthropic efforts. He founded the Robin Hood Foundation, a charity that combats poverty in New York City. His story reminds traders of the importance of risk management, adaptability, and giving back to the community.
Richard Dennis
Richard Dennis, a commodities trader from Chicago, is a trading legend who rose to fame in the 1970s and 80s. Starting with a small loan, he quickly amassed a fortune, earning him the moniker "Prince of the Pit." But Dennis is perhaps best known for his role in a unique trading experiment that sought to answer an age-old question: Are traders born or made?
Dennis' personal strategy centered on trend following - buying when prices increase and selling when they decrease, essentially riding the market's momentum. He believed that price, and how it changes over time, is the most crucial piece of information for a trader.
To settle the debate on whether trading could be taught, Dennis and his partner William Eckhardt conducted the "Turtle Traders" experiment in the 1980s. They selected a group of individuals with no trading experience, trained them for two weeks using a simple set of rules based on trend following, and then provided them with money to trade.
The experiment's results were astounding. Over the next four years, the Turtles earned an average annual compound rate of return of over 80%. This proved Dennis' theory that anyone could learn to trade, given the right system and discipline to follow it.
Dennis' story is a powerful reminder that successful trading is not just about inherent talent but also about discipline, a well-defined strategy, and the ability to follow that strategy consistently.
Stanley Druckenmiller
Stanley Druckenmiller is a highly respected figure in the world of trading, known for his impressive track record and his role in some of the most legendary trades in history. As a fund manager for George Soros, Druckenmiller was instrumental in the trade that "broke the Bank of England," earning a profit of $1 billion.
Druckenmiller's approach to trading is top-down, which means he first considers macroeconomic factors and themes, and then identifies the best investments within that context. He is not averse to placing large, concentrated bets when his confidence in a trade is high. This approach requires a deep understanding of economics, keen intuition, and a high tolerance for risk.
Risk management is an essential aspect of Druckenmiller's strategy. He is known to go all in when he's confident in a trade, but he is also quick to exit a position when he realizes he's made a mistake. As he often says, "The first thing I heard when I got in the business...is bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered. I'm here to tell you I was a pig."
Druckenmiller has an impressive ability to make bold and accurate market predictions. For instance, he successfully predicted and profited from the dot-com bubble's burst in 2000, and later, the financial crisis of 2008.
While his aggressive style and remarkable intuition might not be replicable by every trader, Druckenmiller's story underscores the importance of understanding macroeconomic themes, being confident in your convictions, and the crucial role of risk management in trading.
Ray Dalio
Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world's largest and most successful hedge funds, has left an indelible mark on the world of finance with his innovative approach to investing and risk management.
Dalio pioneered the risk parity strategy, which aims to balance the allocation of risk, rather than the allocation of capital, in a portfolio. His "All Weather" portfolio, designed to perform well across various economic environments, is a prime example of this strategy. It is diversified across different asset classes such as stocks, long-term and intermediate-term bonds, and commodities, designed to balance risks of inflation, deflation, and economic growth.
Dalio believes that economic events and market behavior are cyclical, a concept he outlines in his book "Principles." Understanding these cycles, according to Dalio, is key to making successful investment decisions. He combines these economic principles with a fundamental and quantitative analysis to make his investment decisions.
Dalio also champions the idea of radical transparency in the workplace, arguing that open and honest communication leads to better decision-making and helps avoid persistent problems. He applies this philosophy to his own investment process, using a systematic, rules-based approach to decision-making that reduces the role of emotions and subjective judgment.
Dalio's approach underscores the importance of diversification, understanding macroeconomic principles, and systematic, rules-based decision-making in investing. While Dalio's strategies might require a high level of understanding and are not suitable for all investors, his principles and methodology offer valuable lessons for investors of all levels.
Ed Seykota
Ed Seykota is a trading legend and pioneer of systematic trading who used computerized systems to follow price trends long before such practices were commonplace. Notably, he turned $5,000 into $15 million over 12 years, proving the potential of trend-following strategies.
Seykota's trading methodology is deeply rooted in the principles of trend following. He believes in going with the flow of the market, buying when prices are increasing, and selling when prices are decreasing. Seykota’s approach was to identify long-term trends and then take positions in those directions, riding them for as long as they remained intact.
Seykota is also known for his emphasis on psychology and personal discipline in trading. He often stresses the importance of understanding one's emotional responses to gain and loss, and managing those feelings effectively to make rational trading decisions. Seykota famously said, "Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market."
Moreover, Seykota is a strong advocate of risk management. He believes that managing risk is a key element of long-term success in trading. He often talks about setting stop-loss levels and adjusting them according to market movements to protect his portfolio from significant losses.
Seykota's story offers key lessons in the power of trend-following strategies, the importance of psychological discipline, and the crucial role of risk management in trading. Despite the sophistication of his methods, the core principles behind Seykota's success can provide valuable guidance for traders of all levels.
Linda Bradford Raschke
Linda Bradford Raschke, a prominent figure in the trading world, is known for her technical and fundamental analysis of the futures and equities markets. With a trading career spanning over three decades, Raschke's success underscores the importance of consistency, discipline, and a thorough understanding of market dynamics.
Raschke's approach to trading is methodical and rule-based. She uses a mix of chart patterns, indicators, and market cycles to guide her trading decisions. One of her best-known strategies is the "Holy Grail" setup, which combines a moving average with the ADX indicator to identify potential breakouts in the market.
In addition to technical analysis, Raschke pays close attention to market fundamentals. She believes that while patterns and indicators can signal trading opportunities, understanding the underlying factors driving market movements is crucial to making informed decisions.
Raschke also emphasizes the importance of discipline and risk management. She believes that sticking to a well-defined trading plan, and not letting emotions influence trading decisions, are key to successful trading. As she often says, "Discipline is the ability to sit and wait."
Raschke's experience reminds us that successful trading requires a mix of technical knowledge, a deep understanding of market dynamics, and a strong sense of discipline. Whether you're a novice trader or a seasoned veteran, Raschke's approach offers valuable insights.
Michael Steinhardt
Michael Steinhardt, the founder of Steinhardt, Fine, Berkowitz & Co., is one of Wall Street's most successful hedge fund managers, known for producing remarkable annual returns over a 30-year career. His aggressive, contrarian approach to trading has left a lasting impact on the industry.
Steinhardt's approach is characterized by a philosophy he calls "variant perception." He believes in making investments that are contrary to prevailing market views, often taking high-risk positions that other investors shy away from. His ability to spot opportunities where others see none, backed by deep analysis, has been a crucial part of his success.
Steinhardt's investment decisions are informed by a comprehensive understanding of macroeconomic factors, as well as a thorough analysis of individual companies and sectors. He holds both long and short positions in a variety of asset classes, demonstrating a remarkable ability to navigate a wide range of market conditions.
Risk management is also central to Steinhardt's approach. He is known for taking large positions in his high-conviction ideas, but he also keeps a keen eye on the potential downside and is swift to cut losses when a trade doesn't go as planned.
Steinhardt's story underscores the importance of deep research, conviction, and risk management in trading. It also highlights the potential of contrarian investing strategies for those willing to buck the trend and take on higher levels of risk. Remember, however, that such strategies require deep market understanding and are not suitable for all traders.
Jim Simons
Jim Simons, the founder of Renaissance Technologies, is a unique figure in the world of trading. With a background in mathematics and a deep understanding of code-breaking from his time as a code breaker during the Vietnam War, Simons has pioneered the use of quantitative trading strategies, achieving extraordinary success.
Simons' approach to trading is fundamentally different from many of his peers. Instead of relying on traditional methods of analysis or macroeconomic insights, Simons employs complex mathematical models to uncover patterns in price data that are invisible to the human eye. His fund, the Medallion Fund, is famous for its consistent high-performance, with an average annual return of 35% after fees since 1988.
Quantitative trading, or "quant trading," relies on powerful computers to process massive amounts of data and execute trades. This approach requires deep knowledge of mathematics, statistics, and computer science, and it stands as a testament to the potential of using technology in trading.
At the heart of Simons' strategy is the belief that markets have more in common with the chaotic, unpredictable world of natural phenomena than they do with the logical, rational models of traditional economics. This realization led him to apply mathematical concepts to financial markets, with remarkable success.
Jim Simons’ approach, while highly complex and require significant expertise, shows us the power of mathematics and technology in understanding and capitalizing on financial markets. His story also highlights the potential for innovative, unconventional thinking in trading.
That wraps up our highlight of the top 10 traders who've revolutionized the trading world with their strategies, innovation, and sheer tenacity. But trading is ever-evolving and there are countless talented individuals out there. Who do you think should be on this list and why? Share your thoughts, let's spark a conversation.
Stay tuned for more educational content and subscribe to our page if you enjoy our educational materials.
VIX right on pre-pandemic levelit is possible to jump to 45 on VIX by august
Levels and dates calculated by wolfe wave
This signal on VIX can sustain the S&P500 rally.We don't often look at VIX but the times we do, it never fails to offer valuable insight regarding the long-term factors on stock indices trends. Since March, may have left wondered why the S&P500 (blue trend-line) has took off so considerably without any meaningful pull-back. Well despite the prevailing fundamentals surrounding the market overall, VIX (candles) has considerably calmed down, meaning that the market volatility has decreased, something that accelerated in early April when it broke below a Higher Lows trend-line that was holding for 5 years (since the November 2017 bottom).
This is a strong reason that keep adding fuel to this S&P500 rally and can continue to sustain it for as long as VIX declines. In fact the last time we saw VIX breaking below such a strong long-term Higher Lows trend-line was in July 2009, four months after the bottom of the 2008 Housing Crisis. The index has started its long-term recovery into a historically long and strong Bull Cycle and every spike on VIX was a medium-term pull-back on the S&P500 and a buy opportunity.
This fractal similarities is additional proof that the index is decisively past its 2022 Bear Cycle and is most likely starting a new multi-year Bull Cycle. If you are a long-term investor, pay attention to VIX's spikes in order to take advantage of medium-term buy opportunities.
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VIX is back to the 2021 level that preceeded market meltdownVIX fell below $16 after trying to take hold of $20 last week. The current value of VIX coincides with that, which it contained in November 2021, just before the market meltdown began. Taking into consideration that interest rates are nothing like they were in 2021 and the rally in stocks has been thus far driven mainly by a handful of companies, we are growing increasingly worried about the complacency present in the market.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
VIX - Elliott Wave Illustrates a Potential Bottoming PatternI've been tracking VIX since 2020. I believe that VIX is in a bottoming pattern and will start the next leg up to a new high soon.
VIX doesn't act like an equity. Mainly because it isn't an equity. Its waves don't move like an equity. It usually operates in 3-wave segments over longer timeframes whereas equities operate in both 5-wave and 3-wave segments.
Elliott Wave corrective patterns move in 3-wave segments. You can see a series of these 3-wave moves on this chart leading up to the previous high in early 2022 with light red Wave A. Following that top, I expected a 3-wave corrective move back down. Instead, we've gotten a very choppy, almost Darvas Box looking structure. I've come to realize that this is actually an Elliot Wave triangle pattern (labeled with circled numbers in pink) and I am expecting a bottom in the last segment of it, pink Wave Circle e, which will finish off the light red B wave. It should then start a 5-wave pattern back up to finish off the larger degree 3-wave structure ending in light red C. I've shown some basic extension levels to help predict the landing spot. The first is a 76-100% extension of the size of the light red A wave from the expected bottom of light red Wave B (orange). The second is a 123%-161.8% (the golden ratio) extension of the pink circle d wave of our triangle from the expected bottom of pink circle e (yellow). Each of these can be correct, and they could both be correct. Alternatively, since markets are merely a battle of sentiment, VIX could land somewhere else. We are, remember, looking at a volatility index that tracks S&P options. And the S&P is in a topping pattern of some sort of a bear market bounce corrective wave.
But ultimately, there are two channels I've added to illustrate why I think light red Wave C will land where and when it does. The first connects the bottom in July 2021 to the expected bottom it is currently working on, with the parallel top line connecting the top of light red Wave A to the expected landing point of light red Wave C. This channel is in green. The second channel covers the trajectory of the light red Wave A from bottom to top and then extends its parallel companion from the expected bottom that we are currently working on. That channel is in blue. Both of these channels perfectly intercept each other at a key MAJOR Elliott Wave fib level that usually indicates a C-wave end (the 100% extension of Wave A from the bottom of Wave B). And it also happens to line up with the timing that I've predicted for the next bottoming event in the S&P 500 (not shown here).
Lastly, all of this lines up with the fact that RSI is clearly in a bottoming pattern on daily candles and showing a potentially oversold state.
There are many calculations not shown here so as to not clog up the view.
I warrant that the information created and published by me on TradingView is not prohibited, doesn't constitute investment advice, and isn't created solely for qualified investors. My analysis is not a recommendation for a specific trade.
-mazag08 - TastyWavez 2022
