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VIX back to $20?With economists celebrating the "goldilocks economy" and VIX breaking below the lower bound of the pattern, the big question lingers: "Is this another fakeout before resurgence to $20?" Illustration 1.01 The yellow arrow indicates a breakout below the lower bound of the pattern we have been observing since its early formation. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
6
Market Cycles Buy and Sell Zones Benner's Prophecies on Volatil Benner's Prophecies on Volatility The chart you've shared uses a combination of historical data and predictive models, specifically focusing on Benner's prophecies, to suggest when to buy and sell in the market. Here's a simplified explanation based on what your chart illustrates: Buy Zones Buy zones are indicated by the green shaded areas. These are periods where the historical data or predictive models suggest that market volatility is low and prices may be at a trough or more stable, making it potentially a good time to purchase assets. According to your chart, upcoming buy zones are highlighted with phrases like "YES YES BUY ZONE," suggesting a strong endorsement for buying during these periods. Sell Zones Sell zones are shown in red shaded areas. These suggest times when the market is potentially at a peak or there's high volatility, indicating that it might be a wise decision to sell your holdings to either take profits or avoid a downturn. The chart marks specific years like 2019, 2035, and other highlighted points with "SELL" to denote these periods. Benner’s Prophecies Benner's prophecies are a historical predictive model that uses past market cycles to forecast future ups and downs. Samuel Benner was a farmer turned market forecaster who, after experiencing financial loss in the 1870s, developed a cyclical theory based on pig iron production cycles. His broader application to financial markets aims to predict high and low years based largely on economic cycles. According to Benner’s cycles, markets would experience a patterned recurrence in peaks and troughs, which are used in your chart to predict future market movements. How to Use This Chart for Trading Decisions: Identify the Zones: Look at the current year and compare it to the chart to see if it falls within a green or red zone. Consider Market Conditions: Even though the chart provides years labeled as buy or sell, always consider current market conditions, news, and other analyses before making a decision. Plan Accordingly: If you are nearing a red zone, plan to review your investments and possibly take profits or reduce exposure. Conversely, in a green zone, you might look for undervalued investments to acquire. Monitor Regularly: Market conditions can change rapidly, and while historical models provide a guide, they are not infallible. Regular monitoring and adjustment of your strategies are crucial. By understanding these elements, you can use the chart to make more informed decisions about when to buy and sell based on historical patterns and predicted future market behavior.
CBOE:VIX
by SoaringWave
VIX Vix has been all but forgotten in an election year and a democrat controlled fiscal policy... Good fundamental and/or technical entry point as Fed's Kashkari hints at no rate cuts at all. Early this year markets priced in 6 25 basis point cuts now odds less than 50% we get only three. Jobs report in 2.5 hrs. will be the tell, be pre4pared to act if we have a downside surprise! Note: Not Advice. For advice, ask an advisor of an adviser. Past does not equal future.
TVC:VIXLong
by CurrencyCapital
no matter what way you cut it, the VIX needs 12.50 firstno matter what way you cut it, the VIX needs 12.50 before it rallies and the markets correct. We should bounce at 12.50 with an 80% probability, but before our major market correction, again we will post sub 12$ pps tape hits on the VIX, but i think we bounce again at 12.50 and continue this way until Q3-Q4 when we threaten the sub $12 market, but we may like in past corrections, hit sub $12 months before rallying, sub $12 on the VIX is not a trigger it's a sign for something imminent it may happen right away or months later.
TVC:VIXShort
by candlestickninja
Attention! Signs That Our Pullback Is Over.Traders, Previously, you know that I had anticipated that our pullback might last a bit longer through May. However, today the charts are showing me that this might not be the case. Let's start with the SPY. Originally, I had predicted a touch of the bottom of the RED channel. Then, based upon my analysis of the dollar, VIX, precious metals, and mega-corp stocks, I thought that it might be possible for SPY to even enter into the orangish-yellow area. Today, the SPY has popped back above the RED channel and is now doing battle with our 50 Day SMA. This is a bullish indicator for sure. If we can beat the 50 day by CoB today, we'll have a fairly good indicator that our pullback may be over. We'll need more indicators to agree of course, but this is a good start. The VIX agrees rn, as it has broken below support and fear continues to drop. The dollar also agrees. Previously, I had anticipated a touch of that 107 level. Nope. The dollar has decided to break down and out of our bearish megaphone pattern early. We knew it was going to happen soon and so we were prepared. I am happy to report the news because with the dollar down and the VIX down you all know what this usually indicates for stocks right? UP. ...And our blow-off top continues into the election months as expected. Then a crash. Of course, we'll need a confirmation candle on the daily for all of the above. If we get that, on we go. Watch all of these today and on Monday into next week. Monday (and next week) will be key as those days will give us the confirmation candle that we need, especially for the VIX and DXY. If they don't continue to break down, that will be our first warning that this was all a big head fake and we'll still have further pullback to weather out. This all influences crypto. That is why it is necessary to track. As always, I'll keep you up to date on these developments.
TVC:VIXLong
by stewdamus
Strategic Approach to Volatility Trading: Preparing for VIX DownWhen the VIX drops below $12, it's time to consider a cautious approach. Instead of jumping in headfirst, I gradually enter long positions in UVIX and UVXY calls over the course of one week to several months, while directly holding onto VIX, UVIX, and UVXY. Past experiences with mistimed UVXY Long Calls, particularly during the pre and post-COVID periods, have taught me to be wary of recency and confirmation biases. To navigate these waters, I adopt the perspective of a five-star general overseeing a drone center, analyzing the market with precision. While I anticipate fluctuations, my outlook remains bearish until the VIX hits $12, taking into account both short-term ups and downs. This is a strategy geared towards a relatively long or intermediate-term perspective, focusing on the bigger picture.
TVC:VIX
by candlestickninja
2
Mixed Reviews In Market Direction🟡Breadth - Stocks Above 50 Day 🔴 AMEX:SPY Red Light 🟢 AMEX:IWM Green Light 🟢 TVC:VIX Green Light 🔴Leaders NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:SMCI NYSE:CPNG They are not leading but it's also feeling like there might be a changing of the guard or at least some of the guards? (New Leaders Emerge) 🟡Risk Appetite 🟢 NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:DJT 🔴 NASDAQ:SOUN CRYPTOCAP:BTC 👆Feels like risk appetite is mixed but still there. Love to hear some others thoughts on that risk appetite.
TVC:VIX
by JoelTCampbellJr
Volatility will be put to the test this weekWhile volatility pulled back following a spike earlier this month, this week will put it back to the test with the FOMC meeting (on Tuesday and Wednesday) and economic releases throughout the week, including S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTs job openings, S&P Global Composite PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, ISM Services PMI, nonfarm payrolls, participation rate, and unemployment rate. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tradersweekly
VIX levelsMost people know, but there are only two relevant zones in VIX that foretell economy volatility (and the scariest buzzword of them all - a recession). Bears love to say the market will fall tomorrow, then next week, next month, next year, next presidential term, etc... until it finally happens, and they tell you they saw it coming all along. Meanwhile, their portfolio saw a gain of 2% in a bull market and huge losses on puts. Market is good for the foreseeable future, even if we know it shouldn't be. That's just how it works. I'll start worrying the day we see sustained activity over the upper level.
TVC:VIX
by fenditendi