DXY - Is a relief bounce to the 4-h FVG coming?The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been in a clearly defined downtrend over the recent period, showing consistent lower highs and lower lows. During its latest downward move, the DXY formed a 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG), which aligns with a significant gap in price action. This confluence of technical factors marks a strong rejection area, and from a trading perspective, it presents an ideal zone to consider short positions, especially if bearish price action confirms the setup.
Currently, however, the DXY is sitting at a major support level. This level has historically acted as a demand zone, and given the extended move downward, a bounce or retracement to the upside is a realistic scenario. Traders should stay alert for signs of bullish momentum or reversal patterns, as the potential for a temporary recovery from this support is not unlikely before any continuation of the broader trend.
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DXY trade ideas
DXY Forms a Contracting Triangle: Awaiting BreakoutDXY Forms a Contracting Triangle: Awaiting Breakout
On the 60-minute chart, DXY has developed a contracting triangle, which is typically a trend continuation pattern, suggesting a potential downward move.
However, since this consolidation is taking time and DXY’s price action remains complex, movement in either direction is possible.
The breakout will ultimately determine the next price direction, but based on current conditions, an upward move seems more likely in the near future.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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A Zoom of the Weekly DXY into a Daily viewI kept the colored rectangels from my weekly analysis, to keep the focus and knowledge where we are on the chart.
DXY is doing a long A-B-C before it's is going into the last impulse og the C of Y of x of the larger degree.
It's quite a lot of corrections to manage, but if you swipe from the daily to the weekly timeframe, it makes good sense. For me at least :D.
The purple B wave took some time to figure out, but this was what made most sense to me. I was trying to look at it as a triangle, but that wouldn't have a good shape, so I ended out with this white ((w))-((x))-((y)) correction.
DXY is right now performing, what I see as, a extended 5th wave in the white ((iii) wave, before it goes into the white ((iv)) correction.
The white ((iv) wave correction could be become a long shallow drawn out correction for two reasons.
We had a steep and swift white (ii) followed by an extended white ((iii) wave. This usually means we are going to spend some time correcting that white (iii) wave and the rule of alternation tells us, if we have a quick 2nd wave, we are usually going to see a slow fourth wave.
I don't believe we have completed the white (iii) yet, so we have a long time to go still until that white (iv) wave is done.
When the white (iv) wave is done, the white (v) wave is probaly going to take us down to that green box.
So relax for the next 6 months and grab yourself a cup of coffee.
US DOLLAR at Key Support: Will Price Rebound to 103.000TVC:DXY is currently approaching an important support zone, an area where the price has previously shown bullish reactions. This level aligns closely with the psychological $100 , which tends to have strong market attention.
The recent momentum suggests that buyers could step in and drive the price higher. A bullish confirmation, such as a strong rejection pattern, bullish engulfing candles, or long lower wicks, would increase the probability of a bounce from this level. If I'm right and buyers regain control, the price could move toward the 103.00 level.
However, a breakout below this support would invalidate the bullish outlook, potentially leading to more even more downside.
This is not financial advice!
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Key Resistance & Bearish Target Analys📊 Key Observations:
🔵 Resistance Zone (📍~103.5 Level)
A strong resistance area (🔵 blue box) is marked, indicating potential selling pressure if the price reaches this level.
The price is moving upwards (📈) towards this resistance, so watch for rejection or breakout.
🔵 Support/Target Zone (📍~101.5 Level)
A lower support zone (🔵 blue box) is marked as the bearish target 🎯.
If the price fails at resistance, it may head downwards (📉) to this level.
📉 Recent Price Action:
🚀 Sharp drop followed by a rebound (📈).
The price is currently moving back up (🔼), possibly forming a lower high before another drop.
📌 Exponential Moving Average (DEMA 9 - 102.488)
The price is hovering above the 9-period DEMA (📏), showing short-term bullish momentum.
If the price rejects resistance and falls below the DEMA, a bearish continuation (📉) is likely.
🚀 Potential Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Breakout: If price breaks above 🔵 resistance, it may continue rising (📈) to higher levels.
❌ Bearish Rejection: If price fails at resistance, expect a drop (📉) towards 101.5 🎯.
How to Trade the Tariff Turmoil: Markets Now Move on HeadlinesMarkets in 2025 have become increasingly unpredictable, largely driven by one factor: tariffs. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policy has shaken investor confidence and turned global markets into a rollercoaster. The key to navigating this new environment? Understand that markets are no longer just reacting to economic data—they’re reacting to headlines.
The biggest shock came on April 2, when Trump announced a 145% tariff on all Chinese imports and “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of other countries. The reaction was immediate: the S&P 500 dropped nearly 15% at its lowest point that week, and investors rushed to sell risk assets. Days later, markets sharply reversed after Trump temporarily suspended some tariffs. That sparked a rally—tech stocks soared, Apple rose 5%, and the Nasdaq gained over 2%.
But the relief was short-lived. Conflicting messages and partial rollbacks continued to send markets up and down. Earlier, on March 4, tariffs were placed on Canada and Mexico, while China’s rates were doubled. These moves led to more selling in stocks and a spike in demand for bonds. By mid-April, exemptions for electronics boosted tech names again, but overall market sentiment remained fragile.
How to Trade This New Market
The main lesson for traders and investors is clear:
We’re now in a headline-driven market. Traditional strategies that rely solely on fundamentals or economic cycles are being overshadowed by sudden political developments. Here’s how to adapt:
Stay Nimble and News-Aware
Be ready for fast moves. Market direction can flip in minutes based on a single press conference or tweet. Have alerts set for major geopolitical and tariff-related headlines. Reduce position sizes during uncertainty and avoid holding large trades through major announcements.
Rethink Your Safe Havens
The U.S. dollar is no longer acting like the safe haven it used to be. With rising fiscal concerns and volatile trade policy, investors are shifting toward alternatives. Gold and the Swiss franc (CHF) have become more reliable options during risk-off moments. If uncertainty spikes, these assets may offer better protection than the dollar.
Focus on Sectors Sensitive to Policy
Tech stocks have been among the most affected. Tariff exemptions caused sharp rallies, while new restrictions triggered big drops. If you trade sectors like tech, consumer goods, or industrials, stay especially alert for trade-related headlines.
Bottom line: In 2025, geopolitics is moving markets more than ever. The old playbook needs updating. By staying flexible, tracking headlines, and turning to traditional safe havens like gold and CHF, traders can better navigate the noise—and find opportunity in the chaos.
Smart Traders Watch the Fed — Smarter Ones Watch the DollarHello Traders 🐺
In this idea, I decided to talk about the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) — because so many people have been asking me:
“How do you predict the Fed’s moves, and how do they affect deflationary assets like BTC?”
My last idea was about BTC, where I explained why I believe a major bull run is coming — and part of that is because the Fed might soon shift back to QE.
But if you're trying to predict QE...
The first thing you need to watch is the U.S. Dollar Index, which reflects the strength of the U.S. Dollar.
So let’s break it all down:
🔍 Part 1: What Does the Fed Actually Do?
The Fed isn’t just a printer — it’s the U.S. central bank, and it has a dual mandate:
✅ Keep prices stable (control inflation)
✅ Promote maximum employment
That means the Fed doesn’t just want growth — it wants sustainable growth. No crazy inflation, no deep recession. Balance is key.
🧰 How Does the Fed Do It?
Through Monetary Policy, which is basically the toolkit used to control liquidity, interest rates, and economic behavior (like how much people borrow, spend, or save).
Let’s break down the main tools:
1️⃣ Federal Funds Rate
This is the most powerful tool the Fed has.
It’s the rate banks use to lend to each other overnight.
If the Fed raises the rate:
→ Loans get expensive
→ Spending slows
→ Inflation drops
→ But markets can crash
If the Fed cuts the rate:
→ Loans get cheaper
→ Demand rises
→ Growth accelerates
→ But inflation can surge
2️⃣ Open Market Operations (OMO)
This is how the Fed injects or removes liquidity using bonds.
Buys bonds → Injects money → 🟩 QE (Quantitative Easing)
Sells bonds / lets them expire → Removes money → 🟥 QT (Quantitative Tightening)
3️⃣ Reserve Requirements
This used to be a big deal — the % banks had to hold in reserves.
But since 2020, it's set to 0%.
4️⃣ Discount Rate
The interest rate the Fed charges banks directly.
A change here sends a strong signal to the markets.
Sometimes the Fed also works in sync with the U.S. government — using fiscal support like:
💸 Stimulus checks
🏢 Corporate bailouts
🧾 Tax relief packages
📈 So... Why Does the Dollar Index (DXY) Matter?
There’s a very clear inverse correlation between the DXY and BTC.
When the dollar gets stronger (DXY pumps), BTC usually dumps.
Why? Because rising DXY often means:
🔺 The Fed is raising rates
🔺 Liquidity is being pulled out
🔺 QT is in play
Let me show you some real chart examples:
📉 July 2014 — DXY pumped → BTC dumped hard
DXY Chart:
BTC Chart:
➡️ Just a 28% DXY pump → 80% BTC crash. Ouch.
📈 2017 — DXY dropped → BTC entered full bull market
DXY Chart:
BTC Chart:
➡️ A 15% DXY drop → Bitcoin bull run of a lifetime.
Now here’s the good news 👇
DXY is starting to look very bearish on the chart:
Combine that with the Fed shifting to QE, and guess what?
We're likely entering the early stages of another bull market.
If you read my last BTC idea, you already know what I’m expecting...
🚀 A massive run is just around the corner.
I hope you found this idea useful, and as always —
🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable, but almost always profitable 🐺
🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
DXY Bullish Reversal Setup – Long Entry from Support Zone TowardEMA 30 (Red Line): Currently at 99.700 — tracks short-term trend, and price is hovering near this level.
EMA 200 (Blue Line): At 100.935 — indicates long-term trend, acting as dynamic resistance above.
📈 Trade Setup
✅ Entry Point:
Price: 99.699
Rationale: This level has been tested multiple times, forming a support zone. A bounce here signals a potential long entry.
🎯 Target Point (Take Profit):
Price: 102.738
Distance: ~3.04 points or 3.43% potential move upward.
Note: Marked as EA TARGET POINT, which suggests a calculated area possibly based on previous resistance or algorithmic strategy.
🛑 Stop Loss:
Price: 98.624
Reasoning: Just below the defined support zone (highlighted purple area), ensuring protection against downside breakouts.
📊 Risk-to-Reward Ratio
Entry: 99.699
Target: 102.738 → Gain of ~3.04
Stop: 98.624 → Risk of ~1.08
R/R Ratio: ~2.8:1 — favorable setup
📌 Overall Sentiment
This chart indicates a bullish reversal setup from a strong support zone, possibly targeting a mean reversion or trend reversal toward the 200 EMA and beyond.
However, keep in mind:
The price is currently below both EMAs, so the trend is still bearish.
The trade is counter-trend, relying on support holding and momentum shifting.
USD Breakdown – Trump, Tariffs, and the End of King Dollar?📉 USD Breakdown – Trump, Tariffs, and the End of King Dollar?
In my February post, I said:
2025 would be the Year of the Normalized Dollar — where political pressure meets policy hesitation.
Now that scenario is unfolding.
The dollar is unwinding. The technicals are confirming it.
And the macro backdrop? Only intensifying the move.
📊 Chart Breakdown
100.95 — the key mid-level — is now broken
That level is resistance
Target remains 94.00 — the zone I first called as a bottom back in 2020
From that zone, I called the bull run.
Now, we’re completing the circle.
The King Dollar move is done.
🌐 Macro Pressure Mounts
CPI cooled to 2.4%
Trump wants a weaker dollar to push exports
Tariffs are back — and escalating
The Fed is paused , but still under fire to cut rates
Meanwhile:
🇨🇳 China is accumulating gold aggressively
🪙 Gold is at all-time highs
🧠 Bitcoin is rising as the U.S.'s digital hard asset hedge
⚔️ This Isn’t Just a Chart — It’s a Shift
What we’re watching is more than a breakdown in DXY.
It’s the realignment of monetary confidence:
→ Gold for protection
→ Bitcoin for evolution
→ Dollar for... survival?
The breakdown in USD may be normalizing on the surface...
But underneath it’s signaling a changing of the guard.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
DeGRAM | DXY has broken the downward structureThe DXY is under a descending channel above the trend lines.
The price has broken the upper trend line.
The chart maintains a harmonic pattern and has already broken the descending structure.
We expect a rise after consolidation above the resistance level.
-------------------
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.DXY (U.S.DOLLAR INDEX) M30 ANALYSIS UPDATES
🔍 **Chart Overview:**
- The chart shows a recent **bearish movement** after a double top pattern, indicated by the red arrows.
- Price has dropped significantly and is approaching a **key support zone** around **99.209 – 99.253**.
- A potential **bullish reversal** is anticipated from this support zone.
---
🧠 **Trade Idea:**
✅ **Bullish Scenario (Primary Setup):**
1. **Wait for price action** confirmation around the support area **(99.209 – 99.253)**.
2. Once bullish confirmation appears (e.g., bullish engulfing, pin bar, or double bottom), look for **buy entries**.
3. **First target:** **99.839** (minor resistance zone).
4. **Final target:** **100.607** (major resistance & previous high).
❗️**Invalidation:**
- If price breaks and closes **below 99.209** with strong bearish momentum, the bullish idea becomes invalid and further downside may be expected.
. 🧩 **Strategy Notes:**
- This setup assumes a potential **V-shaped recovery** after a liquidity grab below the recent low.
- Watch for **U.S. economic data releases**, as marked on the chart – they may trigger volatility and impact DXY movement.
DXY Starts the Bearish Trend!DXY Starts the Bearish Trend!
Yesterday, the DXY made a clear breakout on the daily chart from a strong structure zone located near 106.20. Since that moment, the DXY hasn't paused, leading to a weakening USD. Even if the DXY corrects, it is expected to be short-term. The DXY may test the 105.7 - 106.20 range as a maximum before a more significant bearish wave occurs.
The U.S. dollar dropped to a near three-month low against major peers on Wednesday, following the latest round of U.S. tariffs and countermeasures from Canada and China, which stoked fears of an escalating trade war.
Fears about weaker U.S. and global economic activity are driving the sell-off.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
USD Oversold on Weekly & Fibonacci Support TestWeekly charts can be helpful for tracking the motion of the ocean, or larger dominant trends. And so far in 2025, that trend has been quite bearish for the US Dollar and this showed up even with the Greenback coming into 2025 with a full head of steam.
But last week something that's somewhat rare showed up - as weekly RSI on DXY went into oversold territory for only the second time in the past seven years.
The last time this happened was August of 2024, and that was followed by the Q4 reversal in the USD. And before that - it was all the way back in early-2018, which is around when DXY marked a major low that still hasn't been traded through.
This isn't to say that RSI is an automatic indication of reversal because it's not - it's simply a lagging indicator that shows how one sided a trend has been of late. But - it does illustrate how chasing the USD lower could be a challenge here especially given how quickly bears have come on over the past couple of months.
There's also some Fibonacci support that's in-play which is very near support in the range of USD that held for a couple of years before the Q4 breakout. The 61.8% retracement of the 2021-2022 major move plots right at 98.98, which has so far held the lows in DXY.
Of interest and perhaps a bigger component of this move is whether EUR/USD will be able to establish a reversal at or around the 1.1500 handle. And that's a question mark right now, because from a data and driver perspective, it would seem that the backdrop is there as US retail sales printed with strength this week, and Chair Powell sounded somewhat hawkish around the prospect of inflation given the tariff situation. And then the ECB rate cut on Thursday sounded dovish - all factors that would normally be expected to push EUR/USD weakness.
The fact that it hasn't happened is of interest as this could be a bigger picture dominant trend showing it's hand. As I shared in the EUR/USD post which I'll link below, bulls are still in charge of the pair from a price action perspective so accordingly I would still assume bears are in-control of USD until evidence suggests otherwise. In DXY, it's the 102 level that I would like to see traded through as illustration of bulls taking control. -js
The Great Long. DXY LIQUIDITY GAME.We knowgood old SEC days are coming, Fed Pivot is coming and a strong dollar is coming with it. But for now
Let me explain you this chart.
The chart is on a weekly timeframe but all the points of interest and liquidity can be perfectly seen on the monthly as well.
I want to show you how price moves from liquidity zone to liquidity zone touching specific areas no matter what.
Following all the red lines that are previous highs that the price made (liquidity) and the low from July 2023.
For me this chart is pure art, this is the game I look for when daytrading, but for this being on a weekly/monthly chart is just mesmerizing.
This previous -10% drop from Jan-Feb till today, comes from a very specific point in the chart.
And the +15% pump that I see, is coming from a very specific point as well.
As you can see this drop comes after liquidating several highs (sellside liquidity) on the way to a predominant imbalance that respected perfectly. What I want to say is that price follow liquidity first then touches a specific zone and respects it.
Now, we have the same scenario but now we have targeted July 2023 low and a weekly imbalance. A significant low has been triggered and a point of interest has been fille. Fed Pivot is coming and we expect to see a strong dollar in the long run.
I think this is just the perfect point in the chart for direction to shift and to start to price-in what is about to come. Last monday (Black Monday) was a climatic point.
Events bring the volatility for price to make it where it has to,
I think this is the turning point.
I hope you enjoyed the content this is NOT Financial advice. I just want this analysis and info to be here.
Dollar Index - Further Capitulation On the Horizon?It's like a gaping wound that refuses to heal, spewing blood everywhere!
Dollar index has been falling like a ton of bricks from the beginning of this year with little to no signs of retracing back into equilibrium and the question to ask yourself is.... will the 90-day ban restore dollar index above the 100 mark?
Or will be continue to see risk on scenarios?