A Brief Summary of Trump's 100 Day and Effects on U.S. EconomyOverview
In the 2024 campaign, Donald Trump proposed an aggressive "America First" economic agenda. His key proposals centered around four pillars: tariffs and trade, tax policy, energy and environment, and regulatory changes . These proposals built upon his first-term policies but were more sweeping and intense.
Key Proposals
1. Tariffs & Trade
Universal import tariffs of 10–20% across all goods.
60% tariffs on Chinese imports , plus targeted tariffs on Mexico and Canada (linked to immigration and drug policy).
Threatened reciprocal tariffs and 100% tariffs on BRICS nations .
Proposed tariffs on U.S. companies that offshore production.
2. Taxes & Fiscal Policy
Make all 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions permanent (individual, corporate, estate taxes).
Lower corporate tax rate to 20% or 15% for domestic production.
Expand tax credits for “ Made in America ” goods, SALT relief, caregiver and overtime pay.
Analysts estimate a $5–11 trillion reduction in federal revenue over a decade due to these cuts.
3. Energy & Environment
Rescind Biden-era climate regulations, including EPA emissions standards and clean-energy mandates.
Repeal unspent Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) funds, ending subsidies for EVs, solar, wind, and batteries.
Open federal lands and waters for fossil fuel production, aiming to boost oil output by 3 million barrels/day .
4. Deregulation & Crypto
Slash regulations in energy, finance, and technology sectors.
Promote crypto: proposed a government Bitcoin reserve and replacing SEC leadership.
Vowed to cut federal bureaucracy and fast-track project permitting.
Projected Economic Impact (2024–2026)
GDP Growth
Analysts predict modestly slower growth under Trump.
High tariffs may reduce long-run GDP by 6% and wages by 5% , per Penn Wharton Budget Model.
Tariff effects are projected to outweigh gains from tax cuts and deregulation.
Employment
Slower GDP growth would moderate job gains.
Tariffs could hurt export industries and raise input costs.
Deregulation and tax incentives may support hiring in energy and construction.
Inflation
Most economists agree Trump’s tariffs would raise consumer prices.
Combined with deficit-financed tax cuts, inflation could rise 4–7 percentage points above baseline by 2026.
This would likely delay or reverse Fed rate cuts.
Interest Rates
Rising inflation would pressure the Federal Reserve to keep rates higher for longer.
Bond markets have already priced in higher yields in response to Trump’s proposed tariffs.
Stock Market
Markets initially rallied on tax and deregulation hopes.
Bitcoin hit all-time highs; S&P 500 surged post-election.
However, trade war fears caused sell-offs in early 2025, especially in tech and consumer sectors.
Business & Consumer Sentiment
Business leaders expressed concern over trade uncertainty.
Consumer polls show widespread fear of rising prices.
CEO confidence rose post-election due to expected pro-business policies, despite tariff concerns.
Summary Outlook
GDP growth expected to slow below the ~ 2.8% pace of late 2024.
Inflation likely to climb above 3% , driven by tariffs and fiscal stimulus.
Interest rates may remain high due to inflationary pressures.
Markets may oscillate—rallying on tax cuts but reacting negatively to trade disruptions.
Overall effect is mixed: pro-growth tax cuts and deregulation may not fully offset the drag from trade and inflation risks.
Sources
Tax and Fiscal: Tax Foundation, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB)
Trade and Tariffs: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Penn Wharton Budget Model
Energy and Environment: NPR, Thomson Reuters, Hoover Institution
Macroeconomic Impact: Hoover Institution, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR), Peterson Institute
Market Reaction: Reuters, ABC News, AP, Bloomberg
Sentiment Surveys: PwC, Conference Board, PBS, ABC/Washington Post
