FCHI trade ideas
CAC40: It did the total opposite of what I was expecting in 2016Invalidation are as strong if not stronger than validation sometimes.
The interesting thing is that the CAC40 reached the top of the channel (or pitchfork) that I drew last summer. Let's see how it goes, when the DAX and the Dow Jones are making new All Time High.
CAC40 : long TP @ 6200Here is my updated view of the CAC in 4H timeframe.
We are currently on a huge support since it matches with the top of 2015.
If it holds and go beyond the wave 1 (@ 5442), we would go straight to 5750 which is a huge resistance and should then expect a deep retracement.
5950 is also in sight but it is not clear for the moment of the importance of it. Maybe a peak to chase the stops ? Will see when we get there...
In anycase the final target is set at 6200 which corresponds with the end of multiple cycles, including the largest one begun in 2012.
Please Mind the CACOn the 24th April the CAC 40 made a huge gap up, from 5050 to 5260. An incredible 4%. In fact it is the largest gap we can see historically as far back as 2008.
Gaps, as trades know, 'always' get filled. Statistically its more like 90% of the time.
Whether bullish or bearish on the European reflation story, this trade is the same.. French stocks are likely to pull back to close this gap, before either continuing on their rally, or otherwise.
Trade execution:
A conservative way to play this would be see the actual gap as being highest high previously, which is actually 5140 (blue line). A more aggressive short target would be the 5050 from where it jumped.
I believe that in the end will win Le pen.I believe that in the end will win Le pen. I`m not in the trade, the pattern it`s valid. it`s only for open a discussion.
French stocks - short the irrationality The French election news have been in the spotlight for some time now. Last Sunday, LePen lost the first round, and many investors decided that the French stock market is the place to be. Or is it?
Marine LePen never had the lead in the opinion polls for the second round, and the difference she has to surmount in order to beat Macron is huge, 20%. Everyone keeps comparing the French election with the US presidential election and with the Brexit vote. In both cases, the difference between Clinton-Trump and yes-no was very small, unlike the difference between LePen and Macron. The chances of this nut head to be elected as the next president of France are indeed very small and they have been that way since the beginning. However, the day she was defeated in the first round, investors decided to go out and buy everything they could land their hands on. Banks were up more than 10%, while the main index, CAC40, more than 6%. This is pure irrationality, nothing has changed fundamentally, however stocks are on average 6% more expensive, after already having a 30% rally post Brexit. In my opinion, this is a by the book buying climax. Don't get me wrong, I am not calling for the end of this bull market, which is probably going to last for some time, if the world leaders don't escalate the tension in the middle east and N.Korea.
First target at 5000. Soft stop above the high.
Just an idea -- actually a small gamble -- Le Pen wins.I am going to bet that Le Pen wins the election. I believe that the Macron victory is already in the price, after first round of elections. Now he is approx. 20% lead vs Le Pen. So if Le Pen wins there would be a much bigger surprise. I will open a small position.
The risk ratio is between 2-3, so this is comparable to every trade I make.
CAC 40 Index: Get long now while stocks lastCac 40 Index: Broken out and heading for 5790-5860 range, with 400 to 500 points upside still left in it in near term. Get long before the weekend and ride the rally, or sell into strength come Monday
Cac 40 Index on a knife-edge hereCac 40 index is sitting on a knife-edge here waiting for positive news from FOMC presser. Not quite as positive as the Dax but they are both going to move in same direction when it comes. Get ready to go long on a move above 5310 if we see it for rally to 5744 to begin with, then 5865
Cac 40 Index: Excellent Long setup triggered by break above 5300Cac 40 Index: The Cac has only recently broken out of a long term down-trend. If we get a gap up through 5300 tomorrow it's well worth following for a really profitable longer term trade. And even if we don't get the gap (which would be perfect technically) it will still be worth following on a longer term basis on any close above 5300
Cac40 Index update: Holding up uncannily well here. Close shortsCac 40 index is holding up surprisingly well at current levels waiting for someone/thing to propel it higher still. It just isn't behaving in a bearish manner, if it was it would be much weaker today so am closing short at meagre profit and thinking more about upside potential from here...am thinking I'm wrong here to be bearish because If this index can break above 5300 it should unleash another wave of buying power strong enough to reach 5744, then 5865. Will not return to a bear stance unless 5225 is broken (which could still happen if Alphabet disappoints - but don't see that happening and neither does this index by the way it's behaving so far this week. Nevertheless it's better to be prepared for it, triggered by a fall below 5225)
Cac 40 Index Testing major resistance and vulnerable to sell offCac 40 Index
The Cac has had a great week...so far. Now it's testing major reistance from the old highs and struggling to push through. Until it can this index is sitting duck
CAC40 - Has the rally just begun?The resistance offered by the falling trend line drawn from Sept 2000 high and June 2007 high was breached last month.
This month's candle shows a sharp rebound from the sub-trend line support level followed by a rise to 5295.5 (highest level since Jan 2008 high).
The chart also shows a nice rebound from the rising trend line in mid 2016.
Overall, the technical picture says the rally may have just begun... the monthly RSI is rising and is yet to overbought territory.
Testing weekly harmonic pattern - Is it heading to 6000? Even before yesterday's results, the French CAC40 provided a bullish long term signal when it broke above a monthly downtrend line.
The CAC40 is testing the X point of a bearish Bat pattern (similar to what we see in German DAX) and if it'll break and close above it, it can continue all the way up to 6000 to test a bigger PRZ.
