FCHI trade ideas
Is CAC40 Running to Final?Elliott Wave Princible says that CAC40 is about to complete the wave counting with a final wave 5.
CAC 40 - Pivotal pointBy closing at 5069.04, the CAC reached its long term down trend and is now at a pivotal point.
Using weekly prices, the recent uptrend looks still solid with no sign of regression with any relevant indicators.
However, using daily prices, 2 keys indicators, momentum and RSI show a regression synonym of short term weakness which could prevent the index to go through and keep it in the current long term downtrend initiated in Sept 2000 and June 2007.
In case of breakout, the CAC the first resistance stands at 5283.
On the other hand, a return back to 4929 then 4733 will be on the cards. Anything below the latter would annihilate the current uptrend
sell the fra40Guys, Here is the thing i am planning to short.
we see a gartley pattern over here. with a stunning risk reward ratio.
Success
RandR
CAC 40:Upcoming Election Could Induce VolatilityLONG: If it breaks the top trend line. Enter on flag retracement. Confirmed the end of a 3 wave corrective pattern and (maybe) the beginning of a 3rd wave began in 2011 September
SHORT: If it fails to break the previous top ~5300. Look for flag. Completing a 5 wave corrective pattern
Cac 40 analysisTP 1 : 5378.6
TP 2 : 6160.7
Very little SL : 4850
Low risk High reward : 1st target 1:2 Risk/Reward 2nd target 1:7
CAC 40, New support : Target 4960.5CAC 40 resist before 23.60% Fibo today
New support with more candle time
Focus On Politics Now: France CAC-40Turn your attention now to geopolitics. 2016 all technical anaylsis had been wrong - and not pollsters only.
To predict any direction of European Stockmarkets trader needs to understand precisely what´s about the upcomming elections in Europe.
This trading idea is focused on France but linked to the Election in Germany, Netherlands, Italy and the Euro as well. Follow up the updates here.
Marine Le Pen is ramping up the CAC 40. Now.French Election: Investors are very scared about Marine Le Pen
But what did we learned form 2016?
Investors had been scared about the Brexit, Donald Trump and the Italian Consitutional Referendum. Now Investors are scared again. The populist French politician Marine Le Pen is making investors very nervous.
Quote": "Fears are beginning to show in the bond market, where investors are selling French government debt over concerns that the far right politician just might overcome the odds and win the presidential election." Source: money.cnn.com
Investors are scared because the polls might be wrong again and Marine Le Pen might win the election like Donald Trump did unexpectedly. Or like the Brexit Vote.
But what Investors underestimate is that Vladimir Putin east of Europe and Donald Trump in the west makes french and european voters more scared about Marine Le Pen or any far right wing party. What investors also underestimate is that Europeans are more open for a strong European Union than ever before.
So lets watch closely the polls about Emmanuel Macron. The market consenus is, that Marine Le Pen is going to win the first election and fail in the second one (best of two). But there is no consensus about the possibility that Marine Le Pen might fall short in the polls and might fall behind Emmanuelle Macron in the next days and weeks. Investors are not prepared for this. Investors are scared, as you could read in the link above. If ever Macron is taking the lead than all those investors betting against France and Europe again got caught on the wrong foot - once more.
So lets follow the polls and see if Emmanuel Macron might take the lead earlier than everyone (!) is expecting this.
FRA40 Short from Monthly SupplyThe Price has respected the Monthly Supply and is headed lower.The target is 4600
Strong Resistance before NFPTrade when CAC40 will breakout of this hourly trading range 4830/4750 pts after NFP or next Week for a Swing position
CAC 40 - end of down phaseAfter seeing a sustained down-trend, the indicator line has left the sell zone on February 1st, 2017.
We are now waiting for either a new sell signal or a turn-around, toward the upside.
Confirmation will be upon entry into either the sell zone or the buy zone.
Bearish harmonic pattern on French CAC40Same pattern appeared on november 2015, resulting a 1100 points drop
Sell the indexGuys,
The global market is getting more and more volatile, and it requires you to change your mindset more often and immediately. i see the CAC is already lose its momentum of the up moves, i would sell it once it offers me a cheaper price. the target and stop is drawn in the chart.
Success
RandR
CAC 40 consolidates following December breakFollowing the impulsion at the beginning of december, the index is now consolidating its recent uptrend.
Since beginning of December, after exiting a 4 month old canal, the impulsion led the index to multiple new highs.
However, if the price kept going higher, the current uptrend is weakened by a divergence since mid december and visible on three main indicators (RSI, Momentum and MACD). It is very much a short term worry though as this doesn't appear on the weekly data of the index.
- On a short term point of view, holders can keep their long position although others would wait for a more affordable price.
- Mid to long term investors would use the same pivot prices to enter the market or not. For those already long, there is no clear indication to close a long position now and even less to open a short one.
- The divergence would be totalled by a break above the recent high at 4929.6. That would be a significant buy signal.
- On the contrary, a break below the support at 4822.29 would generate a short term sell signal.
CAC61.8 bullish fib
counter trend line break
EMA 50 Support
Target is 1.272 fib
Enter upon potential rejection at bullish 38.2
