#202448 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax xetra: Max bullish. Clear break above and dax printed 19600 again. New ath next week is likely just a matter of when. Targets above are 20000, That’s it. For bears it’s anything below 19130 but that is far away and very low probability. If November closes above 19600, I think 20k is almost a given. After that I will not care about bullish targets any more until we corrected at least 30%. Does not mean I won’t continue scalping it both ways.
Quote from last week:
comment: Thursday and Friday changed the character of the market. Bulls broke above the bear trend line and closed both days at the highs. Next target is the last bear trend line around 19430 before we can retest 19600+. Can only be bullish after past 2 days. Bears can only change my mind if they can close below 19100 again. For now I think many bears gave up and try again around 19500/19600. Is this structure very bullish? Absolutely not. I just think a retest of 19600+ is more likely than a close below 19100. The market spend enough time ins this trading range that the next push above could be the last before we correct in a bigger fashion. After this push up, I would not look for bullish targets until we have seen 18000. Market is overdue for a correction. We will see at least 16000 in 2025.
comment : Late bull breakout during the week like the week before that. Another clear buying signal going into next week. There is not much to add from my tl;dr. Both of my upper bull trend lines run through 20k and I have multiple measured move targets there. More than enough reasons to be bullish and look for longs. Bears can do almost nothing to change my mind, unless we see on giant bear bar closing below 19100 on Monday.
current market cycle: trading range but if we make higher highs, we are obviously in a continuation of the bull trend.
key levels: 19100 - 20000
bull case: Bulls want 20000. Clear as day, as is the breakout. My chart is clear and my invalidation levels are too.
Invalidation is a daily close below 19100.
bear case: Not much for the bears until they close below 19100 again. Did not change that sentence since past Sunday. Bears will dominate 2025 but now is not the time to be early as a bear.
Invalidation is above 20100.
outlook last week:
short term: Very bullish above 19400 and even more above 19600. Below 19100 we are absolutely neutral once again. Hell below 18800.
→ Last Sunday we traded 19322 and now we are at 19626. 300 points on the week, hope you made some.
short term : Max bullish for 20k. Can we chop some before we get there? Sure but I don’t think bears can get this below 19300 again before we hit 20k.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all for now. The current push is most likely the last of it. Bears will come back soon.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Highlighted bull trend lines and my 5-wave series is still valid.
