Hang Seng Slips after New Disappointing Chinese DataLast week’s soft CPI report showed that China has not escaped deflationary pressures and today’s data reaffirmed the weak consumer demand environment, as retail sales rose just 2% y/y in June and the worst print since late-2022. Adding to the woes, the economy grew by 4.7% y/y in Q2 and the slowest pace in more than a year.
HKG33 slips after the new disappointing data and remains in peril of breaching the ascending trend line from the 2024 lows and the 50% Fibonacci of the advance from that low (at around 17,200). That could open the door to further losses towards 16,000, but we are cautious around such moves.
This week’s new disappointing releases may aggravate concerns around the economy, but also raise the chances of more stimulus by Beijing just as the Third Plenum kicks off, where officials will have the chance to discuss supportive measures.
HKG33 can find renewed support as a result and last week it managed to gain ground, overcoming the poor inflation report. Although the upside remains unfriendly, the index tries to hold the initiative about the EMA200 (black line) that keeps it on track for 18,736, but sustained advance towards this year’s peak 19,794 does not look easy.
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
HSI trade ideas
HSI - longest bear market 2018 to 2024*Hopefully, this monthly chart reflects correctly that the bear market has ended this year in 2024 and not like some TA experts predicting that it will fall below the 15000 price level. Possible but imo, not probably......I could be very wrong so do take this with a huge pinch of salt......
If it does fall to 14, 487 price level, then it would forms a nice triple bottom formation which could means a possible trend reversal as well......
Judging from current macro environment, various government policies, etc, I gathered that price should move further up from here. Whether it is the intention of the government to let it fall further or not, it will definitely brings down the already depressed consumer sentiments that the local Chinese have towards the government. While the CCP has no worries like the US in terms of election vote, the common prosperity vision must still be uphold - this we can see the brutal yet necessary moves against the education sector, punishing the Tech giants with heavy fines and withholding their licenses ,etc.
China being the 2nd largest economy is on a fighting mode perpetually with so many areas that it needs to address - defence, aging population, corruption issues, employment, healthcare, trading, competition with other countries, etc.
If you are investing in China for the short term , then you will be disappointed as so many investors/traders had - after losing money in even blue chip stocks like Alibaba, Meituan, etc in the past years............
I believe the worst is over and now is the time for China to shine again......slowly but surely and there are many undervalued gems in China that one can choose to invest..........
HSI - Light at the end of the tunnel After 5 years of bear market, could we finally see the light at the end of the tunnel ? Possible. With this recent drastic measures , it becomes almost impossible to short the market and it leaves only those who are keen to LONG the market to come in. The short sellers, be it institutional or retail investors probably have to go elsewhere....
Those who are keen on longing the HSI index can go try the 2800 ETF which mainly comprises of tech stocks, property developers and financial institutions. Of the 3 sectors, I am bullish on the first and last but remain cautiously optimistic on the property developers.......
While there are ongoing and more measures coming up to combat the falling prices, the consumer confidence is sorely lacking. What we are seeing are the ultra rich picking up the high end properties at discounted price but those who in need of a home are still very concerned about the interest rates (Hong Kong mortgage rate is pegged to the US dollar) and until the FED starts to cut rates, this sitting on the fence approach may last for a while more, imo.
We must not forget the unemployment rates remain high as well as many graduates have yet to find jobs and with AI, robotics, etc becoming more mainstream, we can expect more manual type of work to be partially or fully replaced.
Already, we are seeing the Baidu robo taxis creating a scene in many cities that are being rolled out with the local Uber/Grab taxi drivers protesting..... If lesser people are booking the apps, then they have to work even longer hours to cover their fixed operational costs (rental of vehicles, diesel , operating costs ,etc)
The retail scene are not doing much better with many owners unable to continue their business due to consumers not spending enough or choosing to buy online from T mall, PDD, Shein, etc. And that has created another big opportunity for the livestream business where anyone can become a host to peddle their products - beauty, agricultural, cosmetics, etc.
All eyes are also on the upcoming Plenary meeting where the officials of the CCP will congregate and set the goals for the coming years and dish out new policies, incentives, etc to pull up the struggling sectors. With such low interest rates, business owners are not enticed to borrow as demand remains weak and consumers choosing to shop thriftily.
Let's hope more good measures will come up sooner than later........
HK50 POTENTIAL LONG OPPORTUNITYHello Everyone!
How are you all?
HK50 is an instrument to watch this week, because it is shaping up very nicely for a bullish trend continuation that we can capitalize on.
So, I will be looking for a bullish continuation because of the following reasons:
1. The overall trend is bullish.
2. The price has formed a continuation structure.
3. The price is approaching the value area structurally.
Game Plan:
If the price comes to the VA, and rejects at that level or sweeps the Low, and makes a bullish impulse followed by a 15mins flag with two highs and lows.
Entry : will look for a risk buy entry within the flag or a reduced risk entry on the breakout of the flag.
Hang Seng in Remains in Peril after Weak Chinese InflationChina’s post pandemic recovery is bumpy, troubled by a distressed property market, subdued factory activity and weak consumer demand. Today’s data showed that the country has not escaped deflationary pressures, with CPI hovering around zero for more than a year now. Inflation came in at +0.2% y/y in June, lower than expected and the weakest since January. On a monthly basis, it contracted by 0.2%. Strained Sino-Western relations meanwhile add to the woes, with the latest episode in the trade wars coming from the European Union, which slapped provisional tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs).
This unfavorable mix keeps pressure on HKG33, which runs its second straight losing month. The index is now in risk of breaching the ascending trend line from this year’s lows that would bring 16K in the spotlight.
On the other hand, Beijing has been taking measures to support the economy – even if timid – and more action could be announced later in the month, while weak inflation puts pressure on the central bank for rate cuts. Furthermore, the economy has shown some encouraging signs and the country pushes ahead with the new three pillars of growth consisting of solar, EVs and electric batteries.
HKG33 is in profitable territory for the year after the recent relief rally and can find support around the current levels. This would give it the opportunity to reclaim the EMA200 (blackline) and regain the initiative, but the upside is unfriendly.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
HSI - KWEB - FXI - YINN --- China UptrendChart is self explantory. Bottomline I think we came to the end of 4 year long bear market in China. If they don`t blow up the Taiwan issue, coast is clear.
Econ gathering on 14-16 July, CCP will explain it reforms. I don`t buy what they sell but they would most likely provde liquidity to the market pre and post this economic forum which they do every 5 years. Even for a small pop, this could be a nice play.
BABA - PDD - JD - Tencent...ideally I play with YINN but all the names will benefit eventually.
ICT Long setup H1 chart HK50👋Hello Traders,
Our 🖥️ AI system detected that there is an H1 or higher timeframe ICT Long setup in
HK50 for session trade (a couple of hours)
Weekly chart is in down trend!! So that you couid wait for a reversal to downside as a Swing Short trade after this upward pulse alternatively!
Please refer to the details Stop loss, FVG(Buy Zone),open for take profit.
For more ideas, you are welcome to visit our profile in tradingview.
Have a good day!
Please give this post a like if you like this kind of simple idea, your feedback will bring our signal to next better level, thanks for support!
HangSeng likely more downside till 17000Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
-- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! --
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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HK50 SHORT POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITYHello Everyone!
How are you all?
Hk50 is an instrument to watch, because it is shaping up very nicely for a bearish trend continuation.
So, I will be looking for a bearish continuation because of the following reasons:
1. The short term trend is bearish.
2. The price has formed a continuation structure and it is approaching the value area.
Game Plan:
If the price comes to the VA, and rejects at that level or sweeps the high, and makes a bearish impulse followed by a 15mins flag with two highs and lows.
Entry : will look for a risk sell entry within the flag or a reduced risk entry on the breakout of the flag.
RSI divergence HSI and trendiline from 90s.look at the chart ! evidence on divergence rsi/price, solid support for the next run!
ICT Longsetup HK50👋Hello Traders,
Our 🖥️ AI system detected that there is an H1 or higher timeframe ICT Long setup in HK50.
Please refer to the details Stop loss, FVG(Buy Zone),open for take profit.
For more ideas, you are welcome to visit our profile in tradingview.
Have a good day!
Please give this post a like if you like this kind of simple idea, your feedback will bring our signal to next better level, thanks for support!
HSI short: Triple combination going on C wave of Z waveOn a very high level, I am expecting HSI to start moving down again on a triple combination correction since Jan 2018. Of course, you can consider it as a major ending diagonal (3-3-3-3-3).
Where we are right now is the last down move that should breach the low made on 2nd Nov 2022. The entire move should take us to Q4 of 2024 at the soonest.
Trade with caution, and Good Luck!
HK33 Prediction moveHK33 has a strong pull up today and all the way hit the resistance. And there is a pull back from that resistance. Expecting to touch the closet support
HK33 Prediction moveHK33 has a strong pull up today and all the way hit the resistance. And there is a pull back from that resistance. Expecting to touch the closet support
Hang Seng Tries to Hold Key Support Amidst Mixed Chinese DataThe relief rally of the past four-months fades as HKG33 concluded a four-week losing streak, leading to a challenge of pivotal support levels. The Hong Kong index tests the 38.2% Fibonacci of this year’s low/high advance, creating risk for a deeper correction towards the 61.8% level.
China’s post pandemic recovery is bumpy, underscored by distressed property sector, subdued factory activity and weak domestic demand, with CPI hovering around zero for the past year. Today’s data showed a deceleration in industrial production to 5.6% y/y and another drop in house prices.
Retail sales grew 3.7% y/y though, offering reasons for optimism. Furthermore, China’s real estate market may be in poor shape, but Beijing has found new growth pillars in electric vehicles, car batteries and solar cells. Adding to hopes for better days ahead, both the IMF and the World Bank recently upgraded their China GDP forecasts.
HKG33 finds reprieve today and tries to hold the pivotal 38.2% Fibonacci and the 200 Days EMA (blue line. Successful effort will give it the opportunity to retake 18,736 and the chance to push for higher highs (19,794), but the latter has a higher degree of difficulty.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Fundamental Analysis: Strengthening the Case for a Long Position
Beyond technical signals, several fundamental factors support the case for going long on the Hang Seng Index:
Economic Resilience: Despite global economic uncertainties, Hong Kong has demonstrated resilience. The reopening of China's economy and the easing of COVID-19 restrictions are likely to boost business activities and investor confidence.
Corporate Earnings: Companies listed on the Hang Seng Index have shown robust earnings growth, driven by strong performances in sectors such as technology, finance, and consumer goods. Positive earnings reports can bolster market sentiment.
Government Policies: Proactive fiscal and monetary policies by the Hong Kong government and the People's Bank of China (PBoC) aim to stimulate economic growth. These measures include infrastructure investments, tax incentives, and monetary easing.
Global Market Trends: The global shift towards risk-on assets, supported by accommodative monetary policies in major economies, creates a favorable backdrop for equity markets. As investors seek higher returns, the HSI stands out as an attractive option.
Strategic Considerations for Investors
Investors looking to capitalize on the potential breakout of the Hang Seng Index should consider the following strategies:
Entry Points: Identify optimal entry points by closely monitoring the trend line. A decisive break above the resistance level, confirmed by volume and momentum indicators, can serve as a signal to initiate long positions.
Risk Management: Implementing stop-loss orders and position sizing is crucial to managing risk. This protects against adverse movements and ensures that losses are contained.
Diversification: While the HSI offers attractive opportunities, maintaining a diversified portfolio can mitigate risks associated with market volatility. Consider exposure to different sectors and regions to balance potential rewards and risks.
Continuous Monitoring: The market environment is dynamic, requiring continuous monitoring of economic indicators, corporate earnings, and geopolitical developments. Staying informed enables timely decision-making and adjustments to investment strategies.
The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index presents a compelling opportunity for investors willing to go long, particularly with the potential breakout of the short-term downward trend line on the horizon. By combining technical analysis with a solid understanding of fundamental factors, investors can strategically position themselves to benefit from the anticipated upward movement. As always, prudent risk management and continuous market monitoring are essential to navigating the complexities of the financial markets successfully.
Hang Seng _ Wedge Pattern forming, Target 1_(20694), T2_(29000)Long Term Analysis : "Wedge Pattern" forming in "Hang Seng" and down trendline is "Breakout". So market move to Bullish Trend, wait for if Retest or Trend Continuation. And the 1st Target is 0.5 Fibonacci Retracement price (20694), 2nd Target is Wedge Pattern Top is 29000.
After Reach the Wedge Pattern Top (29000) expect Breakout the Pattern.
I want to help people to Make Profit all over the "World".
Probing China recovery narrative (May 5)Fundamentals & Sentiment
China:
- Good PMI readings
- Overall recovery narrative
USD:
- Bearish sentiment due to latest weak data(Mfg PMI, Labor)
Technical & Other
Setup: TR(B)
Setup timeframe: 4h
Trigger: 1h
Medium term: Down
Long-term: Up
Min target: local highs
Risk: 1.09%
Is there a need to panic for HSI?I get several questions regarding HSI , 2800 tracker fund ETF, etc and it seems some are panicking why the market is down for the last week or so.
Firstly, the bearish trend has ended (hopefully) and we are up almost 33% from the low until the recent pull back of 8% which is quite normal for any stock market.
Already, we know that the CCP has ushered many initiatives to prop up the stock market and the property market, though some analysts feel it is not enough.
It takes time for these measures to see its effects so if you believe that this bull run is here to stay, then this drop of 8% presents a buying opportunity. If not, if you are one of the naysayers who feel that China/HK is uninvestable with its never ending bad news, please choose other markets that fits your investment horizon, risk appetite, etc.
It is possible for the price action to return back to the bearish trend line though I think it is not probable as that would defeat all the hard work the government has done thus far. From relaxing its visa regulations to many countries to lowering the mortgage tax from 20% to 15%, limiting short selling and many others, we can see that the CCP means business this time. Maybe their speed is not to the liking of what we want - a bazooka of sort.
My feel is the property sector will consolidate for a few years before we see a possible uptick as there are enormous surplus units that need to be settled. The property market remains sluggish and that is why I am not going in to pick up property investment stocks yet.
Yes, cheap valuation can remains cheap for a long time but we had already witnessed the rise of many tech stocks rallying in the past 6 months - JD.com, Tencent, Meituan, Xiaomi, etc. They will be the forerunners followed by the consumer cyclicals later on . Rising tide will lift all boats but not at the same level, imo.
I am vested so please DYODD
HK50 HongKong 50 Bearish Robbery plan To Make moneyMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
This is our master plan to Heist HK50 based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart. Our target is Green Zone that is High risk Dangerous level Police Force is waiting for our arrival, Market is oversold / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bullish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan,
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money Use Trailing Stop To Protect Looted Money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order Block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target it will update after the Breakouts.
support our robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Join your hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday.
HK50 bullish ideaIf you do trade this index, I'm gonna share this idea with you. Currently, price dropped to the POI zone and bounced back by a resistance 18427 (lets say). Now, I'm looking for a retracement to 18480 area. If price reaches to that point personally I would enter.
SL :18422
TP1: 18760
TP2: 19400
please trade by your own risk.
HK50 Future Market Outlook: A Good Entry Point with a 2:1 Risk-RThe Hang Seng Index (HK50) is currently showing signs of a potential upward trend, making it an attractive option for investors. Here are the key reasons why now could be a good time to enter the market, especially with a risk-reward ratio of 2:1.
Technical Support and Resistance Levels
Strong Support at the Bottom: The HK50 has recently demonstrated strong support at its current bottom levels. This indicates that the market has found a floor and is less likely to fall further in the near term.
Previous High Breakout: The index has previously broken above significant resistance levels, indicating strong buying pressure and the potential for continued upward momentum. This historical breakout suggests that the market has the strength to overcome resistance and move higher.
Risk-Reward Ratio
2:1 Risk-Reward Ratio: Entering the market at this stage with a 2:1 risk-reward ratio is a prudent strategy. This means that for every unit of risk, there is a potential to gain two units of reward. Such a ratio is favorable for investors, as it limits potential losses while maximizing potential gains.
Controlled Risk: By setting a stop-loss order at the recent support level, investors can manage their risk effectively. If the market were to decline, the loss would be limited to the predetermined stop-loss point. On the other hand, if the market continues to rise, the potential gains would be twice the risk, offering an attractive return on investment.
Market Sentiment and Indicators
HSI poised to Retest the Breakout level and RallyHang Seng Index is pulling back to breakout level in the next few weeks, followed by rally.
