NIKKEI225 SUPPORT AHEAD|LONG|
✅NIKKEI225 is going down now
But a strong support level is ahead at 36,800
Thus I am expecting a rebound
And a move up towards the target at 38,269
LONG🚀
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J225 trade ideas
JPN225 Drops to Correction Levels Ahead of the BOJThe Japanese benchmark index is having another banner year, which culminated to July’s record peak. The central bank’s accommodative stance despite the policy pivot and the Yen’s protracted slump, were the key drivers. But even if slowly, the Bank of Japan is moving towards a less loose setting, after exiting negative rates regime in a historic decision in March. Policymakers have pointed to less bond buying ahead and there are mounting expectations that policymakers will hike again next week.
These prospects help the ailing Yen rebound (along with intervention speculation) and send the JPN225 to correction territory, with a more than 10% slide for the all-time highs. This threatens the pivotal 200Days EMA (blue line) and a breach would open the door to bigger losses towards and beyond 35,771.
However, there is ambivalence around the timing of the next rate increase, while officials have disappointed hawkish expectation in the past and have wrong-footed markets before. Furthermore, the Yen’s demise has made Japanese equities more appealing to foreign investors and ultra-loose monetary policies may have been key drivers of the rally in Japanese equities, but they are not the only culprits. Structural reforms, favorable policies by the government and strong corporate earnings are among the supportive factors.
Furthermore the drop is stretched from a technical perspective, as the RSI reached the most oversold in years. This can help JPN225 stage a comeback as it already defends the 200Days EMA. It may get the opportunity to reclaim the EMA200 (black line) at around the 40K mark. Successful effort would reinstate the bullish bias, but strong catalyst would be needed.
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Late New York / Asia Session Recap - Gold, NZDUSDGold Weekly Fakeout Continuation Setup
NZDUSD Breakout Continuation Setup
Long GJCurrently looking at a long on GJ.
Had a massive sell off from the upward trend, looking for the best possible point of entry into a long.
Fundamentally the Yen is still bearish and Japan's manufacturing and service sectors fall into contraction, since Japan is an exporter country these are fundamentally negative for the Yen. UK elections bring some optimism for the pound in terms of planned policy changes by the new government, but this is all smoke and mirrors until they actually implement a course of action.
Confluences:
61.8% fibo
Key level
D 100EMA
Alignment with the Nikkei at a possible buy zone
Catch you later traders ▲
Nikkei Stops (Mixed Long and Short)Probably too ideal to come to fruition, this scenario is considering a rebound from the bullish forces in case of a descent towards the X zone, after encountering resistance near the red plank zone. If the bullish scenario manifests triggering an incursion towards the Z, this spot would be almost perfect for considering a bearish correction, considering that the retest of the grey slightly curved trendline would coincide with a revisiting of the previous record High.
Will be watching closely the price action near the green marked price level for any signs of potential bullish sentiment as the bearish forces haven't looked decisive or important enough since the low near 36700.
Trade Recap - JP225 +2RBreakout Signal Day with Weekly and Daily Breakout Bias. Plan is to take high of day sell. Tokyo market opened and pushed above the Breakout Level. Previous H1 High was faked out before price pushed back below the Breakout Level. Entered on the M1 pullback. TP at Previous Day Low.
Strong JPY, Weak Nikkei. Trading Plans Post FallAs the JPY has gained value, on propping up rumours via Japan Authorities, we have seen a drop in the Nikkei.
The pro growth rates set by the BOJ have allowed the Japanese Nikkei to grow to higher highs continually, inline with the positive market sentiment spurred on by a better global economic outlook and a soft landing.
A retracement, however, would reflect some of the economic woes induced by low rates. Anything that turns this around will likely take us back to highs.
Conversely, a continuation of current sentiment will bring us lower. Any longs, therefore, must be tiny, if any. Save them till later.
The NIKKEI looks very toppy!Is it down from here for the Japanese stock market?
Is it the first major stock market to top?
The Nikkei Index Has Risen To a Two-Month HighThe Nikkei Index Has Risen To a Two-Month High
As we reported on 26th June, analysing the Nikkei 225 chart (Japan 225 on FXOpen):
→ The price is in a significant upward trend (shown by the blue channel);
→ The price may continue to rise along the median line.
Since then, the Nikkei 225 index (Japan 225 on FXOpen) has increased by more than 6%, reaching a yearly high on 10th July above 42,500 points. The price particularly surged on 9-10 July, breaking resistance at 41,160 (formed from the previous peak at the end of March).
However, the bears made a strong comeback afterwards, pushing the price back to the 41,160 level. Thus:
→ Completely offsetting the gains from 9-10 July;
→ Forming a bearish engulfing pattern spanning 4 candles;
→ Prompting consideration that the breakout above 41,160 was false (a trap for bulls).
According to Reuters, bearish drivers included technology stocks such as Tokyo Electron, which saw a more than 6% decline in one day, following sell-offs in US technology stocks (as reported on 12th July).
Sentiment in the Japanese stock market is also influenced by risks of interventions by the Bank of Japan to support the yen.
Technical analysis of the Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) provides further insights:
→ The price is still in the upper half of a significant ascending channel (shown by the blue channel), originating in 2023;
→ There is no conclusive evidence yet that the price is consolidating below the 41,160 level.
However, it's possible that the bears could break below the median of the blue channel and consolidate below 41,160.
In that case, the bearish reversal from last week could become a key point in constructing an important descending channel for the Nikkei 225 index (Japan 225 on FXOpen), whose contours are already emerging (shown in red). Looking ahead to the second half of 2024, this suggests a potential break of the lower boundary of the blue channel.
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JAPAN TRADE: NIKKEI225 & TOPIX BANK INDEXThe FX:JPN225 index is currently offering a modest discount following a nearly 10% return to investors in February, raising the question of its investability. A key metric to watch is the Topix Bank Index TSE:TOPIXB , which gauges the health of the financial sector. Despite today's slight decline of 0.50% in the FX:JPN225 , Japanese banks continue to perform notably well. Inflation rates are anticipated to decrease from 2.6% to 2.1% tomorrow (Tuesday), and consumer confidence is expected to see a minor improvement from 38 to 38.2 by the end of the week (Friday).
Given the positive internal indicators and the limited number of significant events on the calendar for this week, my outlook remains optimistic. I am waiting for a further pullback in the FX:JPN225 to establish a level of support from which I can start to build on any additional declines.
Nikkei-Watching levelsTradingview Ideas:
Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Will watch levels 41,000 which is about now at 40500 area. bias still on upside but not till i see some change it this near term down move..shall monitor...
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
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NIKKEI RISKY LONG|
✅NIKKEI is the main japanese
Stock Index and is has been
Following the Yen in the opposite
Direction. The weaker the Yen
The stronger the Index, so now
Following a sharp correction on
The Yen we are seeing a correction
On Nikkei as well, but we are
Bullish biased mid-terma and
As the index is about to retest
The significant horizontal support
Level of 41,000 we will be
Expecting a local bullish rebound
LONG🚀
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NIKKEI 225 (BANKSTER CALL)I'm loving the way this chart is looking. But I also love the fundamentals here. US Govt. is working overtime to satisfy our allies here in South East Asia, and in the Norther 'Emerging Markets' Zone (S.Korea). However, with all that's going in the South China Sea, Japan has stepped as an ally to help us buffer some of the regions tensions. Nikkei 225 contains some of the worlds hardest hitting corporate players. So a purchase from Warren Buffett isn't a 'scratch your back, i'll scratch yours until...' but a sizable investment into the future of one of the worlds most productive societies.
With this being said, I
decided to place 25% of my portfolio into this play, with a hedge nearby in the event we retest levels seen on the Monthly chart.
Going forward, we will build out plays that will cover the risk until we are risk neutral. Then I will expose our portfolio some more to this play.
Walking the streets Fukuoka just a few years ago, during what was seen as tough economic times, it was hard to tell with how packed the shopping malls in the prefecture were.
*A consumer based economy with tons of potential.
Now, based in Bangkok, I will add the Chinese are controlling the regions most valuable retail assets with their 'unlimited' purchasing power, but the Japanese are strategically in lock-step in the more quieter ways and in economies were the value of their assets can see a larger blast north from foreign investment.
This is not investment advice. I'm not responsible for any decisions that you make after reviewing this information. Trade Responsibly.
The American Bankster
Nikkei $58187 by 2nd half 2025Looks like a wave 3 is still in progress for the Nikkei, retracement shouldn't go below say $36,000-ish before hitting a high of $58,187 to complete the 5th wave.
This 5th wave completion may be only the ending 3rd wave of a larger wave pattern.
Let see what happens in the coming years.
pullback to previous resistance?its like textbook but in the markets you never know specially in the nikkei, im sure im not the only one who see this, the nikkei its pretty bullish since 2009, only time will tell.
NIKKEI225 Bullish Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
NIKKEI225 is trading in
An uptrend and the index
Made a bullish breakout
Of the key horizontal level
Of 41,000 and the breakout
Is confirmed which reinforces
Our bullish bias and makes
Us expect a further move up
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
NIKKEI225 SHORT FROM RESISTANCE|
✅NIKKEI225 price went up sharply
But a strong resistance level was hit at 41,106
Thus, as a pullback is already happening
And a move down towards the target of 40,600 shall follow
SHORT🔥
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NIKKEI SHORT 41,000 SL & TP ON CHARTTaking short position on NIKKEI 1% risk 1:5r
Reason for trade is we may see the JPY basket start to bottom out and retrace currently in extremely oversold and undervalued conditions.
JPY pairs looking like they could recover a lot
I see the NIKKEI as overvalued because of the yen bleeding so much this year its a false evaluation of the price, has been drawn up artificially off the back of yen losses which may well be getting plugged now.
41,000-41,1000 is a great area for shorts
How to Trade JPY Weakness With Minimum Intervention RiskFundamentals & Sentiment
JPN225:
- Final data showed that business activity in Japan turned contractionary in June for the first time since November. Technology stocks led the advance, triggering the index to pop higher. The tech sector is the third by weight in Nikkei (~15%).
USD:
- The Fed is still in "wait and see" mode
- Recent US data has been weak (except JOLTS)
JPY
- Continuous JPY depreciation propels Japanese stocks
Technical & Other
Setup: S(B)
Setup timeframe: D
Trigger: 4h
Medium-term: Up
Long-term: Sideways
Min target: Mar high/ the end of the first breakout leg after Mar high
Risk: 1.19%
Nikkei Soars Looking Past Monetary NormalizationUltra-loose BoJ policy and the Yen’s demise have been key drivers of the JPN225 mammoth rally. The central bank exited its negative rates regime though and is shifting towards less easy policies, with at least one more hike reasonable within the year. This threatens to cut off a key source of strength for equities and JPN22 registered a brief pullback from the March record peak.
But monetary normalization has been slow so far and the stock market’s strength is based on more factors than just favorable monetary stance and weak currency. Strong earnings, structural reforms and investment-friendly government policies are among them. As a result, JPN225 has resumed its advance and runs its third straight profitable month, trying to set new all-time highs. On the other hand, the RSI reached overbought levels and a pullback here would be reasonable.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
NIKKEI 225 - Potential Bearish OpportunityThe Nikkei 225 index has demonstrated a sustained bullish trend over an extended period. However, recent developments indicate a notable divergence and the emergence of a bearish Gartley pattern, suggesting a potential shift towards a downward trajectory. Market analysis indicates that bears could exert control following the completion of the pattern at the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ). This observation underscores the importance of monitoring key technical indicators and price action closely to assess the index's future direction accurately.
The Nikkei Index Has Risen to a 2-Month HighThe Nikkei Index Has Risen to a 2-Month High
As we wrote on June 17th, analyzing the Nikkei 225 chart (Japan 225 on FXOpen):
→ the price formed a consolidation pattern (in the shape of a narrowing triangle);
→ the price formed a bullish reversal from the 38,000 points level (indicated by an arrow), suggesting potential growth and trend establishment upon pattern breakout.
Since then, the price has broken out of the consolidation triangle and today exceeded the 39,800 level - marking the highest point since mid-April.
Technical analysis of the Nikkei 225 chart (Japan 225 on FXOpen) provides more information:
→ the price is in a significant uptrend (shown by the blue channel);
→ after breaking out of the consolidation triangle, the price reached the median line of the channel - implying that the bullish momentum may weaken here, but not necessarily come to an end completely.
It is possible that the Nikkei 225 index (Japan 225 on FXOpen) will continue to rise steadily along the median line, but fundamental factors should be considered as key drivers:
Firstly, the ultra-loose policy of the Bank of Japan, which is beneficial for the growth of Japan's export-oriented enterprises. However, the central bank's policy is increasingly criticized, especially with the USD/JPY exchange rate nearing the 'red line' of 160 yen per dollar.
Secondly, the influence of the US stock market. In this regard, it should be noted that:
→ the current rise in the Nikkei 225 index (Japan 225 on FXOpen) is linked to the strong recovery of NVDA shares after three days of decline;
→ upcoming news on US inflation. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index values will be published on Friday at 15:30 GMT+3 and could cause significant volatility in financial markets, potentially affecting the price of the Nikkei 225 index (Japan 225 on FXOpen).
A significant resistance level is seen at the psychological level of 40,000. After the price surpassed it in March (but failed to hold above it on two attempts), it retraced by more than 9% with the formation of the aforementioned consolidation triangle.
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