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5 May Weekly NAS100 Forecast USTECH: Trade Talks and Fed Decision in Focus Analysis: Markets are at a pivotal juncture as investors monitor two critical developments: the potential resumption of U.S.-China trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision. Trade Negotiations: Renewed dialogue between the U.S. and China could alleviate tariff pressures, stabilize global supply chains, and bolster investor confidence, thereby reducing recession risks. Federal Reserve Decision: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet on May 6–7, 2025. While the Fed is widely expected to maintain the current interest rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, market participants are keenly awaiting Chair Jerome Powell's commentary for insights into future monetary policy directions. Market Bias: Cautiously Bullish The confluence of potential trade resolutions and a steady monetary policy stance supports a cautiously optimistic outlook. However, market volatility may persist pending concrete developments. Key Levels to Watch: USTECH (NASDAQ 100): Resistance: 20 531 Support: 19 481 Conclusion: Investors should remain vigilant, monitoring both geopolitical developments and central bank communications, as these factors will significantly influence market trajectories in the near term. --- Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions. ---
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by tshiiamom_sa
Stock Markets Rise Amid US–China Trade Deal ProgressStock Markets Rise Amid US–China Trade Deal Progress As the chart shows, the Nasdaq 100 index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) formed a bullish gap at Monday’s market open and, as of this morning, is trading at its highest level since early March. This is driven by the announcement from the Trump administration of progress in securing a trade deal with China, following weekend negotiations held in Switzerland. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the two-day talks with Chinese officials in Geneva as “productive”, adding that more detailed information would be shared on Monday. As a reminder, the US imposed tariffs of 145% on Chinese goods, to which Beijing responded with a 125% levy on American imports. Technical Analysis of the E-mini Nasdaq 100 Chart The chart is showing bullish signals: → The downward trendline (shown in orange) was broken around the 19,666 level, which has since acted as support (indicated by the blue arrow). → Today, the Nasdaq 100 has moved above last week’s resistance near the 20,175 level. → Market fluctuations are forming an upward channel (shown in blue) from the April lows, with the price currently sitting in the upper half of the channel—typically a sign of strong buying pressure. Further updates on the US–China trade deal may reveal key details, potentially reinforcing the current bullish sentiment in the equity markets. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:NDQM
by FXOpen
1
NAS100 - Stock Market Expects a Devastating Week!The index is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. I expect corrective moves from the specified range, but if the index corrects towards the demand range, we can look for the next Nasdaq buy positions with a good risk-reward ratio. U.S. stock futures responded positively to signals from both Chinese and American officials. Looking ahead to the coming week, investor focus is squarely on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the United States—marking the first chance to assess the impact of the new tariffs implemented on April 9. Meanwhile, ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China remain a crucial factor, with significant implications for inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and overall market expectations. In addition to inflation data, retail sales figures and the preliminary results of the University of Michigan sentiment survey could influence market outlook regarding interest rates—especially since price stability and full employment remain core mandates of the Federal Reserve. At present, Fed officials are working to maintain a cautious stance in order to anchor inflation expectations. However, if clear signs of economic weakness emerge, that stance could shift rapidly—something that several Fed officials have already openly acknowledged. Retail sales, in particular, could provide a different narrative about the health of the economy. After a notable 1.5% jump in March, estimates suggest that growth in April slowed to just 0.1%. This deceleration may reflect consumer reluctance to spend, stemming either from inflationary pressures or broader economic uncertainty. Thursday’s data release will include the Producer Price Index (PPI), industrial production, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index—offering a clearer picture of supply-side dynamics and the performance of the industrial sector. On Friday, attention will turn to a fresh batch of economic indicators: building permits, housing starts, the New York (Empire State) manufacturing index, and especially the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment survey. This survey has gained importance in recent months due to notable increases in both one-year and five-year inflation expectations. As recent charts indicate, while consumer confidence has plummeted to multi-year lows, inflation expectations have trended upward—a worrisome combination that could limit the Fed’s ability to ease monetary policy. Although concerns about a U.S. recession persist, recent data suggest more of a “gradual slowdown” rather than signs of an imminent crisis. In March, both the CPI and PCE indices declined, indicating a temporary easing of inflationary pressures. However, this trend may reverse in April, as the broad implementation of reciprocal tariffs likely raised import costs—particularly for Chinese goods, which now face duties as high as 145%. New estimates indicate that these tariffs could add 2.25% to core inflation over the next year, effectively reversing the progress made in 2024 on taming price pressures.Prior to the Trump administration’s tariff announcements, economists had differing views on inflation, with some expecting it to approach the Fed’s 2% annual target by year-end. Contrary to trade experts, Trump claimed that sellers would not pass these price increases on to consumers. Goldman Sachs’ analysis this week suggests that Trump’s tariffs could push inflation to levels not seen since the post-pandemic price surge. The broad import taxes announced between February and April may have a substantial impact on the economy, and consumers are likely to feel the effects first at the checkout counter. Goldman economists estimate that the tariffs could drive annual inflation—as measured by core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)—to 3.8% by December, marking the highest rate since 2023. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge rose 2.6% last year. This metric remains above the Fed’s 2% target and has shown limited progress toward that goal since 2023. The last time inflation was below this benchmark was in January 2021. A renewed wave of price increases could severely strain American household budgets—particularly if the labor market also weakens, as many economists anticipate. This would also represent a significant setback for the Federal Reserve, which has kept interest rates elevated since 2022 in an effort to combat post-pandemic inflation. While inflation hovered around 3% at the beginning of 2024 with little change, it saw a notable drop in March. Many analysts forecast that inflation will continue to decline and approach the 2% target by the end of 2025. Walker and Peng’s analysis factored in both the direct effects of tariffs—most of which will likely be passed on to consumers—and several indirect consequences. The trade war has unexpectedly weakened the U.S. dollar, reducing Americans’ purchasing power. Moreover, some manufacturers may shift production away from China, where tariffs are particularly severe, to locations with higher production costs. As a result, American consumers may end up paying significantly more for imported goods, especially in categories like consumer electronics and apparel.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by Ali_PSND
Technical Breakdown on US 100 | 1H TimeframeTechnical Breakdown on US 100 Cash CFD (1H) using Volume Profile, Gann, and CVD + ADX 1. Key Observations (Volume, Gann & CVD + ADX Focused) a) Volume Profile Insights: Value Area High (VAH): 20,500 Value Area Low (VAL): 20,000 (approx. based on volume shading) Point of Control (POC): 20,062.08 High-volume nodes: Dense around 20,050–20,100 – indicative of value acceptance. Low-volume gaps: Sharp price movement through 20,150–20,250 – price could revisit here swiftly. b) Liquidity Zones: Stop Cluster Zones: Order Absorption Zones: c) Volume-Based Swing Highs/Lows: Swing High Volume Spike: Near 20,500 – rejection occurred with CVD flattening. Swing Low Volume Spike: 20,000 – strong reversal point, indicates buyer interest. d) CVD + ADX Indicator Analysis: Trend Direction: Uptrend currently, but potential divergence forming. ADX Strength: CVD Confirmation: 2. Support & Resistance Levels a) Volume-Based Levels: Support: Resistance: b) Gann-Based Levels: Recent Confirmed High: 20,506 Recent Confirmed Low: 20,000 Retracements: 3. Chart Patterns & Market Structure a) Trend: Short-term Bullish, but with early signs of divergence (based on projected price/CVD path) Confirmed by breakout above POC with rising CVD initially. b) Notable Patterns: Ascending Channel Breakout: Strong push above upper boundary on momentum. Volume Gap Fill Potential: Price may return to 20,250 or lower on exhaustion. POC Retest Scenario: High probability of price testing 20,062 if strength fades. 4. Trade Setup & Risk Management a) Bullish Entry (If uptrend sustains): Entry Zone: 20,250–20,300 (channel midpoint or pullback after breakout) Targets: Stop-Loss (SL): 20,150 (below volume gap midpoint) RR: Minimum 1:2 b) Bearish Entry (If divergence confirms): Entry Zone: 20,500–20,525 (fakeout/stop hunt zone) Target: Stop-Loss (SL): 20,600 RR: Minimum 1:2 c) Position Sizing: Risk 1–2% of capital per trade.
FX:NAS100Long
by ProspireWealth
NAS100 Reaches Major Supply Zone – Will Bulls Hold or Fade?The NAS100 has just broken into a major supply zone around 20,139 – 20,470, previously tested in late April and early May. This zone has historically triggered sell-offs, as seen from the previous price reactions. Key Levels: Resistance Zone: 20,139 – 20,470 (Visible Supply Zone) Mid Support: 18,830 (Strong bounce level in April) Demand Zone: 16,948 – 17,300 (Price base with historical accumulation) What I'm Watching: If bulls break and hold above 20,470, we could see a new bullish leg higher. Failure to hold this zone could bring a sharp retracement toward 18,830 or even 16,948. Upcoming U.S. economic events marked on the chart may be the catalyst for the next move. Trade Ideas: Short-Term Bears: Look for rejection candles or fake breakouts at current highs. Trend Traders: Wait for a confirmed breakout and retest above 20,470 for longs. Swing Buyers: Watch for bullish setups around 18,830 or the demand zone at 16,948. Volume Profile + LuxAlgo Zones confirm this supply and demand setup. Smart money tends to react at these extremes—watch closely!
FX:NAS100
by FrankFx14
Prices are entering critical battleground between bulls & bears(The following is solely personal opinion and not investment advice. Please exercise your own judgment before making any decisions.) Last week, the market was driven by positive news and continued its upward breakout, now surpassing the 200-day moving average. This week, attention should be paid to price and volume performance. If prices fail to break higher convincingly, a pullback may begin. However, if positive sentiment continues to dominate, the upward trend could persist. Key resistance levels are at 20,700 and 21,070. If the price breaks above 20,700 this week without showing signs of significant retracement, the market may test higher levels. On the downside, the key support zone lies between 19,978 and 20,255. If the price struggles to maintain upward momentum and consolidates below the 200-day moving average, the likelihood of a downward reversal increases. The first target on the downside would then be in the 18,277 to 18,588 range. Last week’s performance serves as a reminder that when most expect the Fed’s FOMC decisions to trigger a market drop, prices often behave contrary to expectations. In the current market environment, it’s crucial to recognize that the market won’t rise or fall indefinitely. At critical price levels, risk control and timely position adjustments are essential.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by zygliu
NQ: Upcoming Weekly Analysis!FA Analysis: 1- We have two forces (Trump's team, policy and tweets and the FED) as market movers. 2- Trump's Team: Maintaining the UNCERTAINTY - Minimum tariffs is 10% which is at least 500% of the original tariffs. - Have a clear strategy: One screaming very high and the other one, the nice guy, offers 10-25% tariffs - All the deals won't be binding deals; so they might change at any time. So uncertainty is still there. - It's all about PR and looking good and winning - Market understands very well what is happening. Market sees the 10% tariffs as a huge barrier. =) So all what Trump is doing, including the final/big deals, are bad for stocks and equities. 3- The FED: - Last FED did not provide any hint about June rate cut. FED is data related. - Last macro-economic data did not help the FED Rate cut. Hence, the upcoming data is very relevant. - This week, we have key inflation data: CPI and PPI. Higher Inflation data means NO June Cut which is very bad for stocks and equities. Inline and lower inflation data will help FED Cut which is good for stocks and equities. =) From now on, Good macro-economic data is bad for stocks and equities and vice-versa. TA Analysis: Weekly TF: - From weekly perspective, we got a bullish weekly candle than closed inside a bullish candle. - Price seems exhausted and toppish. There is no need to go further up. But in any case, the chart shows two higher levels that price might reach in the case of bad economic data. Daily TF: - Friday candle was unable to close above the latest HH. - Price always closed inside the consolidation area. - Price will test the previous swing low (highlighted by a circle) in case Monday or US-China talks does not close above the latest HH. =) From weekly and daily TF, NQ should go south. Wish you a green week Everyone! GL! (Note: I won't be around this week beside quick in and out; So I won't post most likely)
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by OTM-Fadhl
US100 - Correction Required Before Next Major Rally PhaseThe US Tech 100 index is showing signs of exhaustion after a strong recovery rally from April lows, with price action now facing resistance at the upper blue box around 20,200. The index appears to be forming a short-term top as momentum wanes, evidenced by recent candle patterns displaying indecision and inability to sustain new highs. The downward-pointing red arrow suggests a likely move toward the middle support zone around 19,000, which would represent a healthy correction of about 5-6% from current levels. This pullback would help reset overbought technical indicators and potentially shake out weak hands before establishing a stronger foundation for the next leg higher. Given the sharp rally we've witnessed from the April lows near 16,400, this correction would be technically justified and provide a more sustainable launching pad for continuation of the longer-term uptrend once complete. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:USTECShort
by financialflagship
2