FTSE Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 21/09/2023As forecasted we saw more upside in the FTSE. We now reached areas from where we can start to reverse. It looks like the upward ABC correction is mature.
UK100 trade ideas
FTSE is the happiest place to be long?With the PBOC sticking to expectations and maintaining its Loan Prime Rates (LPR), commodity-related currencies experienced little volatility during the Asian session.
Instead, the majority of the action was focused on GBP after the UK released its August CPI figures. Both headline and core CPI came in lower than expected, supporting the Bank of England's (BOE) less hawkish path.
GBP fell against its major counterparts but has since recovered, particularly against the USD, JPY, CHF, and EUR.
This opens the door for the FTSE to rise. For longs, I look at the 7700 area as a breakout retest.
UK Stock Market Rises amid Inflation News According to data published this morning for August from the UK Office for National Statistics, the CPI index amounted to 6.7% in annual terms (expected 7.0%, value a month ago = 6.8%).
That is, the data shows that although inflation remains high (above other G7 countries), the trend points to a slowdown. This is the 6th CPI value in a row that has either decreased or remained the same.
However, there is still a long way to go before reaching the target values (a value of about 2% is considered normal).
Here’s how markets reacted to inflation news:
→ depreciation of the GBP/USD exchange rate to another September low. The rate approached an important low at the end of May;
→ growth of the UK FTSE stock index (the 4-hour chart of which is presented for analysis).
Bullish arguments:
→ news about declining inflation will help the bulls gain a foothold above the psychological level of 7,700
→ the price is within the ascending channel (shown in blue). A confident return of the price to its upper half will indicate the strength of demand.
Bearish arguments:
→ Level 7,700 still offers resistance. At the end of July, the bears won a landslide victory here.
→ Exceeding the July high may be just a false breakout. It is possible that after the initial positive reaction to lower inflation, market consensus will indicate that the fair price for the FTSE (UK100) index is still below 7,700. This will be similar to how the stock index of 50 European shares reacted to the ECB decision last week (quick exhaustion of bullish momentum followed by bearish momentum).
Be prepared for a surge in volatility today at 21:00 GMT+3 amid the publication of news from the Federal Reserve.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FTSE Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 20/09/2023As forecasted we saw more upside in the FTSE. We now reached areas from where we can start to reverse. We are looking for exhaustion signs to end wave ((y)) and wave W.
FTSE Elliott Wave Analysis for Tuesday 19/09/2023As forecasted we saw more upside in the FTSE. We now reached areas from where we can start to reverse. We are looking for exhaustion signs to end wave ((y)) and wave W.
FTSE 100 Technical OutlookFTSE 100 Technical Outlook
In prior technical outlooks, we highlighted the importance of staying alert in sleepy markets, and last Thursday’s developments on the FTSE 100 serve as a prime illustration of this principle.
Having spent the first half of the week coiled and consolidating, the FTSE burst into life on Thursday – breaking and closing above multiple levels of resistance and posting its biggest day of gains since March.
Thursday’s rally was fuelled by the European Central Bank (ECB) confirming the end of its rate hike cycle. This fed into a surge in commodity prices which propelled the FTSE 100 higher as the index is heavily weighted towards energy and mining stocks.
The rally brought the FTSE back to the levels it had reached during the summer swing highs—an area we had previously pointed out as a zone of resistance (refer to the chart below). On Friday, market participants reacted to this resistance by closing out positions in anticipation of the weekend.
It's important to highlight that even though the FTSE has started the new week with a somewhat subdued performance, the prevailing short-term momentum remains bullish, thanks to the gains seen on Thursday.
FTSE 100 Daily Candle Chart:
Support
S1 = 7,500
S2 = 7,370
S3 = 7,227
Resistance
R1 = 7,724
R2 = 7,941
R3 = 8,045
UK Sector Snapshot
Risk management:
Support and resistance levels should be used as a guide and are not guaranteed to hold.
We have a busy week ahead on the economic calendar, key events include; Eurozone inflation data on Tuesday morning, UK inflation on Wednesday morning, the Federal Open Market Committee interest rate announcement on Wednesday, and the Bank of England rate decision on Thursday.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance.
UK100 FTSE Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaIn this video, we undertake an extensive examination of the US100. In recent time frames, the NASDAQ has experienced significant bullish sentiment, leading to a substantial surge toward a crucial resistance level. Throughout the video, we explore the potential for a trade opportunity involving the FTSE. This analysis is based on a thorough evaluation of price action dynamics, market structure, prevailing trends, and a careful assessment of key support and resistance levels. It is essential to stress that the material presented is purely educational in nature and should not be construed as financial advice or guidance.
FTSE Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 18/09/2023As forecasted we saw more upside in the FTSE. We now reached areas from where we can start to reverse. We are looking for exhaustion signs to end wave ((y)) and wave W.
UK100 Index will rise more.The previous week UK100 broke the trend line in 4 hours. Breaks the three resistance zones. Upcoming week it can make another HL and then move towards a HH. Also, there is a possibility that it will make a Bullish Rectangle as well.
FTSE Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 15/09/2023 (+ Higher TF)For traders (lower timeframe):
As forecasted we saw more upside in the FTSE. We now reached areas from where we can start to reverse. We are looking for exhaustion signs to end wave ((y)) and wave W.
For investors (higher timeframe):
In the higher timeframe, investors should wait till the higher degree WXY correction is finished.
FTSE Dots PivotsIn this project the simulated markings and drawings are designed to catch and/or anticipate potential pivot points in the price action. Dotted icons are potential price predictions. Bounces or candlestick shadows at the shapes are also another type of event to look for.
Examples of pivot points (and or bounces/candlestick shadows) have been highlighted in the past price action.
FTSE 100: Crossed over the 2023 Resistance. Key bullish move!FTSE 100 just crossed over the LH trendline that was the major Resistance for this year since February 16th. Technically it was the top of the seven month Descending Triangle that delivered rejections to the S1 Zone.
This breakout also crossed over the 1D MA200 turning the 1D timeframe overbought technically (RSI = 73.837, MACD = 28.900, ADX = 29.659). R1 (7,720) is where the Fibonacci 0.618 level is and is the next Resistance. If it closes a 1D candle over it, we will buy the breakout otherwise will wait for the first technical pullback near the 1D MA50 and buy. Either way, our traget is Fibonacci 0.786 (TP = 7,865).
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
FTSE to turnaround?UK100 - 24h expiry
Price action has stalled at good resistance levels and currently trades just below here (7550).
We expect a reversal in this move.
A move through 7500 will confirm the bearish momentum.
The measured move target is 7350.
Momentum is flat, highlighting the lack of clear direction.
We look to Sell a break of 7500 (stop at 7540)
Our profit targets will be 7400 and 7375
Resistance: 7550 / 7575 / 7600
Support: 7500 / 7350 / 7300
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
FTSE Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 14/09/2023We made a new high and this supports the scenario of another corrective leg up as forecasted. This means we can see some more upside to finish wave X, before reversing down as a wave Y.
UK100 Short Call!!!UK100 is currently experiencing strong resistance levels in the market. To take advantage of the potential market scenario, we can consider opening a short position with a stop loss set at the resistance level. This will enable us to confidently anticipate a strong rejection and make the necessary trading decisions accordingly.
FTSE 100, Consolidating, This Scenario Can Alter The Situation!Hello Traders Investors And Community,
Welcome to this analysis where we are looking at the FTSE 100 Index, what it is currently doing, the overall formation, the possibilities when certain confirmations occur, and how to handle upcoming changes. The FTSE is an index which has developed a longer consolidation period after its recovery approach from the corona breakdowns seen this year, the big question as it is also the same in other major indices is if this recovery can sustain further within a healthy unspeculative market environment or if there is more downside ahead especially when an increase in corona shows bearish downside action similarly to those mechanisms seen this year.
Looking at my chart you can watch there that the index is trading in a longer stretched descending parallel channel which is marked in red where it is consolidating slightly to the downside and already touched the upper and lower boundary several times, such formations tend to break out sooner or later and the longer such formations develop the heavier and more volatile the breakout will be. Technically speaking the consolidation can go on more time when there is no positive news event which is altering the situation immediately to the upside, furthermore, the wave count establishing supports this scenario where the final wave E can form over the next times while the upper boundary confirming bearish again this final wave is not far away and within the high possible range. When this happens and the final wave develops the index has some solid support at the Fibonacci-support seen in my chart which is the 50 % level of the whole wave up, this support is also matching with the lower boundary of the channel where a bounce can be given and expected. When the index bounces in this area it can move on to confirm the bull-flag which will activate targets way above the range but the importance is to show up with the confirmation.
This possible bull-flag breakout can confirm a healthy bullish edge but that does not mean the whole index is completely bullish as there are still strong resistance levels and the index is trading way below its all-time-high-condition, therefore we should not keep the bearish scenario fully by side here, the bull-flag can confirm bullishness on the short and long-term but that does not mean it will definitely go up into the long term as well, in this case the bull-flag can be traded on the long-side but it should be seen crucial when it is approaching resistances in the range above.
In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, support for more market insight, and all the best!
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market.
FTSE Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 13/09/2023As expected we took out the high and the correction up looks complete now. This means wave X can be finished and we should see more downside as a wave Y. However, aligned with the US indices, we expect another corrective leg up.
FTSE Elliott Wave Analysis for Tuesday 12/09/2023As expected we went back into the wave X area to take out the previous high. This means we get an additional correction up as a wave X. This correction up does not look complete yet. We need at least one more high. Wave X up should be followed by further downside as a wave Y.
UK100 Bullish SeptemberDaily chart of UK100 is expected to Break up weekly resistance and trendline to follow a Bullish September Seasonal behaviour. Take Long positions after retest and new orderblock formation
Dow theory HHs HLs: Bullish
Candlestick Pattern : Bullish forming three soldiers
Support &Resistance: Orange line formed on Weekly chark
Trendline: Resistance approaching expected to breakup
Fibonacci: Bullish Touched 50% on daily
Seasonals: Bullish
Divergence: Bullish on 4hr
Pattern: Bullish Penant on Daily
FTSE Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 11/09/2023 (+ Higher TF)For traders (lower timeframe):
The primary expectation is now that we will go back into the wave X area to take out the previous high. That would mean we get an additional correction up as a wave X. This move should be followed by further downside as a wave Y.
For investors (higher timeframe):
In the higher timeframe, investors should wait till the higher degree WXY correction is finished. It is still early but we are approaching the first relevant areas.
Decoding FTSE 100: Key Levels RevealedFTSE 100 Technical Outlook
This week's FTSE price action illustrates traders' sensitivity to interest rate expectations on both sides of the Atlantic.
On Tuesday, the FTSE experienced a post-bank holiday rebound, driven by weaker U.S. job numbers that were perceived to alleviate pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates further. Notably, Tuesday's rally resulted in the FTSE breaking and closing above the descending trendline formed by the lower swing highs from earlier this month.
However, the rally lost momentum when it encountered a short-term resistance zone around 7,500, mainly due to stronger-than-expected European inflation data that raised the likelihood of the ECB maintaining higher interest rates for a longer period.
Wednesday's reversal now presents a short-term resistance area that traders can monitor as we approach this afternoon's U.S. non-farm payrolls data.
A second failure at Wednesday's high would be bearish, potentially setting the stage for a decline toward the 7,200 support level (see chart below). Conversely, a decisive breakthrough above Wednesday's high might pave the way for an extended rally towards 7,625.
FTSE 100 Daily Candle Chart:
Support
S1 = 7,227
S2 = 7,204
S3 = 6,825
Resistance
R1 = 7,509
R2 = 7,625
R3 = 7,724
Risk management:
US non-farm payrolls is an event which has the potential to cause outsized market volatility.
Support and resistance levels should be used as a guide and are not guaranteed to hold.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance.
