@Nas Bears seeks The 17,000 handle as Recession fears spark sellfor Mexico, Canada, and the U.S. due to the turbulent rollout of Trump tariffs, which has created significant uncertainty for businesses and policymakers.
Concerns over inflation in the U.S., which were already growing, have intensified, making it more likely that the Federal Reserve will hold off on policy changes for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, the risk of recession is increasing across all three countries, and that was witnessed On Monday as wallstreet painted its boards with Red arrows which was not a good sign that being said am anticipating that the Bearish rally will continue till we mitigate @17,000 handle.
waiting for Retest @20,000 Before the bears come in
Tp.17,000 which will be some days to come from today.
USTEC trade ideas
NASDAQ CRASH: Are We in a Bear Market? Let’s Break it Down!The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) just took a huge dive, dropping 21.69% from its recent highs. That officially meets the definition of a bear market (a decline of 20% or more). The question is: Are we going lower, or is a reversal coming? Let’s analyze the moving averages, Fibonacci levels, and key market signals to figure out what’s next.
📊 Moving Averages Breakdown: A Bearish Trend Confirmation?
One of the biggest red flags here is how the price is behaving relative to its moving averages:
🔴 Short-Term Moving Averages (Yellow & Green - 9 EMA & 21 EMA)
These are the fastest-moving indicators and help us track momentum.
The price has been consistently closing below them, showing strong bearish pressure.
Whenever the price tries to bounce, it gets rejected at these levels, signaling weak demand.
🟠 Mid-Term Moving Averages (Orange - 50 MA)
The 50-day moving average acts as a key support/resistance zone in many market trends.
In this chart, we saw a breakdown below the 50 MA, and since then, the price hasn’t even attempted to reclaim it.
This suggests that even mid-term traders are losing confidence, leading to further selling pressure.
🔵 Long-Term Moving Averages (Blue - 200 MA)
The 200-day moving average is a critical level for defining long-term trends.
Right now, the index is trading well below the 200 MA, which signals a major trend shift—we're no longer in a bull market.
The further we move away from this level, the harder it becomes for bulls to regain control.
➡️ Conclusion: All key moving averages are trending downward, and the price is failing to reclaim even short-term levels. This means we are likely in a sustained bear market unless we see a major reversal.
Key Fibonacci Levels & Market Structure
We are currently testing the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at 17,268. If this level fails, we could see further downside towards 15,771 (2.618 Fib) or even lower.
Any bounce will face major resistance at 18,500 - 19,100, where multiple Fib retracements and moving averages converge.
🔥 What’s Next?
If buyers step in at 17,268, we might see a relief rally.
If we break below it, expect 15,771 or even 14,273 to be the next downside targets.
Watch the moving averages closely if we start reclaiming the 9 & 21 EMA, that could be an early sign of a recovery.
Are we heading deeper into a bear market, or is this just a big correction before another bull run? Drop your thoughts below!
NAS100/US100/NQ/NASDAQ Long-Bet Me, Others Sell=I BuyNAS100, US100, NQ, NASDAQ Long for 2 Weeks, it could drop a little forsure because I didn't get bullish confirmation but with my back testing of this strategy, it hits multiple possible take profits atleast TP-1, manage your position accordingly.
Use proper risk management
Looks like good trade.
Lets monitor.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: only idea, not advice
NAS100/US100/NQ/NASDAQ Long NAS100, US100, NQ, NASDAQ Long, with my back testing of this strategy, it hits multiple possible take profits atleast TP-1, manage your position accordingly.
Use proper risk management
Looks like good trade.
Lets monitor.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: only idea, not advice
Nasdaq Long: Ending DiagonalHi, I made an update 3 hours ago regarding reducing short position and staying neutral because of wave 4. However, it seems like wave 5 of 3 extended and is now showing me an ending diagonal. This changes the assessment from neutral to long as ending diagonal are usually swift and sharp move reversals.
Take note that the last wave of the ending diagonal might itself be an ending diagonal. So my suggestion is to scale in the long and give a slightly wider stop below the lower trendline.
Good luck!
NASDAQ tanking! Do the right thing and CUT RATES NOW Jerome!The market is collapsing, China is retaliating with 34% tariffs and Powell is making jokes!
Well that pretty much sums up the market news since yesterday, with Nasdaq / US100 having the worst day since the COVID crash 5 years ago while President Trump shouting 'the market is going to boom'.
Today China imposed 34% reciprocal tariffs on imports of U.S. goods and the worst of all.. Jerome Powell on his speech a little earlier was making jokes about his purple tie, avoiding to address the elephant in the room and take action!
Nasdaq is testing the August 5th 2024 Low, having crossed even under the 1week MA100 for the first time since May 15th 2023! At the same time the 1week RSI just got oversold at 30.00.
Reminds you of something? Yes that's right the last time Nasdaq broke under its 1week MA100 that fast and got oversold on its 1week RSI was on the week of March 16th 2020: YES the COVID crash.
What happened then? Well dear old Fed stepped up, did what they HAD to and cut rates to near zero (0.25%).
Even President Trump tweeted just a few hours ago that Powell should cut rates now and stop playing politics!
Tariffs are in place and they will pay off very well in the long term. On the shorter term, it is in Powell's hands save the economy.
-- Do the right thing and finally CUT THE RATES Jerome! --
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NASDAQ 100 SIMILARITIES WITH THE 2008 MARKET CRASH (2008 MARKET CRASH CHART )
As shown in the chart, we may now see a relief rally in equities in case Trump decides to take a step back regarding tariffs, while at the same time, the FED decides to give markets a break by messaging possibly more rate cuts this year. Although I think a relief rally is coming after this correction, we may end up in a similar technical pattern to 2008. By summer ( June-July ), equities may have a final push before breaking further below.
Nasdaq Elliott Wave Update on Short Position ManagementIn this video, I go through exactly how I plotted the wave counts that I published on 3rd April (linked to this idea). I also show how to estimate price target using support and Fibonacci extensions. Lastly, I talk about trading productivity again and why I recommend to take out some of your short position.
There are 3 main reasons:
1. We have completed wave 3 of 3 and is now going into wave 4 (and wave 4 are notorious for being unpredictable and may even have triple combinations).
2. We are what? 80% in the money and it happens very fast. So productivity wise, it is good to take some money off the table.
3. Weekend risk.
I am putting this idea as "Neutral" even though I am still expecting a wave 5 down. Reason is because we are in wave 4, and also because I pray that I can find time to update again when wave 4 ends and wave 5 of 3 starts.
Good luck!
Sell Idea on NQ100 based on draw on liquidity NQ100 has been selling off mainly due to the tariffs issues but I'm more concerned with the draw on liquidity on the daily time frame at 17626.74 as it is a daily low. I'm anticipating price to draw close to that price due to this and also we have the London session low at 17657.27 which is very close to the price I mention above hence the idea of a buy to take out the London high .
NSDQ100 INTRADAY key trading levels ahead of US NFPKey Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 18435
Resistance Level 2: 18800
Resistance Level 3: 19580
Support Level 1: 17680
Support Level 2: 17300
Support Level 3: 17000
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2025 Outlook: Correction and Harmonic PatternsThe NASDAQ , after peaking at an unprecedented 22,000 in 2024, has begun a corrective phase driven by pausing Federal Reserve interest rates, concerns over tech-sector profitability, and escalating geopolitical tensions and Trump Commands. This pullback reflects a shift away from growth stocks toward safer assets.
As outlined in this Chart, the index is now validating a bearish harmonic pattern (Crab), which typically signals major trend reversals.
The pattern’s completion zone aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels (61.8–78.6%) of the 2022–2024 bull run, projecting downside targets:
- Near-term support: 20,000–20,500 (dynamic support near the 100-week moving average).
- Intermediate zone: 19,000–19,500 (50% Fibonacci level and long-term trendline confluence).
- Final target: 18,500 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement and psychological “golden support”).
Macro risks, such as prolonged restrictive monetary policy, slowing AI-driven earnings growth, and U.S.-China and US-Europe trade tensions, could accelerate this decline.
Traders are monitoring a decisive break below 20,500 with high volume to confirm bearish momentum, while a rebound from 18,500—coupled with reversal patterns like a double bottom may signal a short/mid-term buying opportunity.
This outlook hinges on earnings reports from mega-cap tech firms (Microsoft, Apple, NVIDIA) and Federal Reserve policy guidance.
NAS100 Will Go Up From Support! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for NAS100.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 18,411.4.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 18,773.6.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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US100 Bullish SideUS100 show clear bullish momentum and many indicators shows that US100 in uptrend which are given below:
RSI daily timeframe bullish divergence
Descending parallel channel which show that US100 in a strong uptrend
Strong support zone
All these indicator indicators shows us that US100 in a clear bullish momentum