Are we sleeping on a massive double top?As you can see, The Nasdaq has made two near equal peaks around the 22100 area.
Although the Weekly candles of the first and second week of February were bullish, it coincided with two weeks of declining volume, usually meaning momentum exhaustion.
On the 18th February the Nasdaq printed a strong ‘no body’ red doji on the daily TF. This is an indecision candle but can signal the beginning of a trend change.
The Green Areas show the Daily Fair Value Gaps and I’ve but a target beside the Fair Value Gaps that are currently unfilled.
If the Nasdaq breaks beneath 20500, the targets underneath this price is where I’d expect price to be drawn towards.
Also, I have highlighted some notable lows where I’d expected volatility around. I am not suggesting at that this move could in a straight line by the way. If it happens, it will happen in waves.
This is based 100% on technical analysis.
USTEC trade ideas
NAS100: Likely rebound at major point within Ascending ChannelCAPITALCOM:US100 is likely to be undergoing a corrective move as it tests the lower boundary of the ascending channel, as shown on my chart. This boundary serves as dynamic trendline support and a significant bullish reaction could happen if buyers step in at this level.
A successful rebound from this support could lead to a move toward the midline of the channel, with the next target at around 22,000 . This scenario would maintain the overall bullish trend structure.
However, a clear breakdown below the trendline support would weaken the bullish outlook and could lead to further downside.
Monitoring candlestick patterns and volume at this critical zone is essential for identifying buying opportunities. Proper risk management is advised, always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management.
If you have any thoughts on this setup or additional insights, drop them in the comments!
NAS100 Technical Analysis🔹 Trend Overview:
Nas100 initially showed signs of recovery with some bullish momentum. However, in the last three days of the week, the market sentiment shifted, breaking key support zones at 19,880.00, 19,400.00, and 19,151.00. This drop was driven by growing uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and a more pessimistic inflation outlook.
🔹 Key Levels:
📈 Resistance: 19,400.00
📉 Support: 19,151.00 – If broken, price may drop further.
🔹 Market Structure:
🚀 Bullish scenario: Rejection of 19,151.00 & break of 19,400.00 → Retest → Target higher levels.
⚠️ Bearish scenario: Break of 19,151.00 → Drop to 18,796.10 → Further decline if broken.
📌 Risk Management: Wait for confirmation of breakout or rejection before entering trades.
NASDAQ 100 IndexThe price has already dropped to the support line of the inner channel (in light blue), which is at one standard deviation.
If this support line is also broken, the next support level is the outer channel (in yellow), which is at two standard deviations.
(Logarithmic price axis, channel starting from 2008)
NASDAQ Bearish, What's Next? Is 18.5k feasible?Price respected Weekly's bearish imbalance to continue lower. Still price is within the weekly's context area to which is suitable to look for entries in lower timeframes targeting weekly's swing low (POI).
Once, the Weekly POI get's tagged we might look to continue to the next POI (Point of Interest). Likely, the daily swing lows.
What's Next?
Potential target price is 18,537.88.
Good times still to roll on after correction.Bear flag forming at the edge of the channel. The flag pole came down with good volume and flag itself (consolidation) on decrease volume therefore good probability of more downside. If that happens that could create a Wycoff spring and resume the current trend.
Rebound Failed, market will be driven by news events next week(The following is merely a personal opinion and not investment advice. Please exercise your own judgment before making any decisions.)
From Monday to Wednesday this week, the Nasdaq continued last week's rebound and reached the initial rebound target of 20,256, as previously mentioned. However, on Wednesday, the price began to pull back and filled Monday’s gap.
With U.S. tariffs set to take effect on April 2, the market is facing increased short-term uncertainty. On Friday, the bears encountered no resistance and drove the market down rapidly. The market is currently highly focused on tariff-related news, and without positive developments, prices may continue to decline. Once the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs is resolved, it will be important to monitor market sentiment and further developments.
For next week's trading, patience is key—waiting for more updates on tariffs and the potential market bottom. If positive news emerges after April 2, a V-shaped rebound remains possible.
From a technical perspective, since the market failed to break out effectively this week, the current market structure has broken below the long-term uptrend line that has been in place since 2023 on the weekly chart! Therefore, technically speaking, there is still significant downside potential. However, after several consecutive weeks of decline, prices are in an oversold state, making shorting at these levels relatively risky.
For short positions, it may be preferable to wait for a rebound to the 19,974–20,257 range before considering shorting opportunities based on further news developments. If the bears remain in control, prices should stay below 20,361. Otherwise, a breakout above 20,715, 21,098, and 21,370 could occur.
For long positions, it may be best to wait until the tariff-related news is fully priced in before making further observations. It would be prudent to confirm signals on the 4-hour chart before considering any long positions.
nas updateThis Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For educational Purpose to Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView
Realtime markups: Indices tailspin to the weekly range lowsAfter rejecting the weekly highs aggressively on Wednesday, we had a clear run toward the low of the same weekly range candle's low. I believe this low will be hit before anything else.
We will see what the Monday open sequence looks like. See you then 🫡
Bulls shouldnt fight this fallI have explained everything on the chart....can't be bullish for the time being, except for some rallies in a downfall....Whales will step where JPow said the famous words, Inflation is no longer transitory....Honestly the sooner we get here, the better....but it could take a few weeks or by the middle of this year.....if the market goes again back up for a double top, the fall will be even more painful.....but markets are all about creating maximum pain for bulls and bears....
NASDAQ Will the disappointing PCE today form a Double Bottom?Nasdaq is on a strong 3 day correction that has almost erased the recovery attempt since the March 11th low.
That was a higher Low inside the 8 month Channel Up and the current correction may be a bottom formation attempt like September 6th 2024.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy before the closing market price.
Targets:
1. 23350 (the 1.382 Fibonacci extension).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) illustrates the similarities with July-September 2024 in a much better way. Strong indication that the Channel Up is attempting to price a bottom.
Please like, follow and comment!!
US Equities Fall Amid Inflationary Pressures and Trade TensionsUS equities closed the week with significant losses, reversing the gains recorded during the previous week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped more than 1%, reflecting a clear deterioration in market sentiment amid multiple adverse factors.
The bearish session unfolded in an environment dominated by worrying signs of inflationary pressures, particularly the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a key gauge followed by the Federal Reserve (FED). The core PCE posted a monthly increase of 0.4%, the largest gain since January 2024, exceeding market expectations. On an annual basis, this measure accelerated to a concerning 2.8%, signaling persistent inflationary pressure that could complicate future monetary policy decisions by the FED.
At the same time, soft data has continued to deteriorate significantly, adding uncertainty regarding the resilience of hard data. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 57, its lowest level since November 2022, due to negative expectations regarding personal finances, unemployment, and inflation. In fact, two-thirds of consumers anticipate a rise in the unemployment rate, reflecting a level of concern not seen since the 2009 financial crisis.
Much of this uncertainty has been fueled by recent policies implemented by the Trump administration, particularly government spending cuts and aggressive trade policies. The latest move came with the announcement of 25% tariffs on imported cars and auto parts, effective April 3. This measure triggered an immediate negative reaction in both local and international markets, anticipating higher costs for US consumers and potential trade retaliation from key partners such as the European Union, Canada, China, Japan, and South Korea.
At the sector level, discretionary consumer goods were the most affected on Friday, while utilities showed relative resilience. This uneven performance supports the case for a defensive market, reflecting a growing risk aversion among investors.
The combination of inflationary pressures, economic slowdown, and rising trade tensions creates a challenging environment for equities. Overall, current conditions point toward a concerning scenario with signs of stagflation: low economic growth coupled with persistent inflation and a rapidly deteriorating economic sentiment.
In conclusion, it will be key to closely monitor the evolution of hard economic data as well as the international response to US trade policies. The big question in the coming months is whether the current fragility in economic sentiment will ultimately translate into hard economic indicators, decisively impacting equities.
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KEEP TRADING SIMPLE - NDXGood Morning,
Hope all is well. We saw some rejection at the 20,288 mark. Volume is still holding in a bearish partner. Trend is now signalling a bearish pattern. I will re-evaluate any accumulation until 19,100 to see if support holds.
Currently my portfolio is 75% SQQQ. I am holding No Crypto at the moment and have 25% in stocks and etfs.
Have a great day!