GBPAUD-SELL strategy 12 hourly The pair is under pressure, and indicators are mainly negative. It is possible we may see a move towards 1.9550 in the medium-term.
Strategy SELL @ 1.9840-1.9880 and take profit near 1.9590.
GBPAUD trade ideas
Macroeconomic analysis, positioning, technical analysis. Short GHello everyone, today I want to share a trading idea that recently triggered my short entry.
The GBP/AUD pair is hovering near period highs not seen since 2020.
I think in the short term we might witness some pullback. Let’s analyze the situation.
MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS
- Data
The latest data reflects a marked improvement in the Australian labor market, with the unemployment rate beating expectations. A rise to 4.2% was forecasted, but the figure dropped to 3.9%. This comes after the RBA decided to keep the reference rate unchanged, adopting a dovish tone compared to recent statements. It remains to be seen if this data could shift the narrative once again.
- Economic growth
The positioning and momentum on the pound indicate confidence that the economy could grow by 2025 or that inflation will remain stickier than expected. This affects the BOE’s monetary policy decisions. Interest rates have risen more than in other economies and are now at their peaks. On the other hand, the BOE recently adopted a dovish tone, suggesting the possibility of four rate cuts in 2025.
In a recent article, Goldman Sachs highlighted that the UK’s growth might underperform expectations. UK GDP is expected to grow by 1.2% in 2025, slower than the Bank of England's 1.5% projection and slightly below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 1.3%. The team predicts growth of 0.4% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the last quarter of 2024, with a slowdown to around 0.25–0.30% quarterly for the remainder of the year. They also foresee inflationary pressures easing through 2025, paving the way for deeper rate cuts than currently priced in by the market.
www.goldmansachs.com
- Interest rates
Interest rates in the UK have risen more than in other economies, reaching a peak of 4.6%, reflecting aggressive rate policies. Meanwhile, AUD/USD movements appear closely tied to Chinese rates, which are at historic lows, potentially priming for a rebound and, consequently, a recovery in the cross, due to potential stimulus measures for the Chinese economy.
POSITIONING
- COT (Commitment of Traders)
Let’s analyze the COT to check for extremes on either side.
www.tradingster.com .
Long positioning on the pound is at its highest since 2018, while for the Australian dollar, we are in negative territory after a decline. Momentum does not favor either currency, as traders are offloading or increasing short positions.
SEASONALITY
We are entering a period of strong negative seasonality for the pound, which typically tends to decline from the first week of December until the end of the month.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
From a chart perspective, the pair has just broken a dynamic trendline support on the 4H chart after a strong rally to period highs. The RSI clearly shows overbought conditions with bearish divergence.
Entry: Upon the break or retest of the trendline.
Stop Loss: Above the volume area signaling the break.
Take Profit: Near the volume area supporting the price.
Thanks for your attention!
GBPAUD Trade IdeaGBPAUD has had a change of direction after breaking structure and below a key level followed by a retest to confirm the break out. a continuation to the downside is what i anticipate after a break out and retest of the other key level
GBPAUD Massive Long! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the GBPAUD next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.9840
Bias -Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 1.9916
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
[GBPAUD] Short swingI missed the perfect entry for this short but building a position on the way down with limited risk.
I will manage the position even more strictly.
Great Trade !
GBPAUD - Employment in Australia is at good levels!The GBPAUD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. In case of failure of this channel, we can see the demand zone and buy within that zone with appropriate risk reward. Continuing to move in the channel will pave the way for this currency pair to rise to the supply zone. Within the supply zone can look for GBPAUD sell positions.
1. Renewable Energy in the UK:
British ministers are preparing for the largest renewable energy subsidy auction in the country’s history to achieve the challenging goal of generating clean electricity by 2030. Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, is set to launch the “2030 Clean Electricity Action Plan” today, aiming to decarbonize the power system by the end of the decade. A recent auction secured funding for 131 clean energy projects, guaranteeing 9.6 gigawatts of energy capacity, enough to power 11 million homes. Government officials plan to hold the largest auction to date by 2025 to meet the 2030 target of at least 95% low-carbon electricity.
2. Trump’s Proposed Tariffs:
According to a Reuters survey, most economists believe that Trump’s proposed tariffs would have minimal impact on the UK economy. The survey revealed that the Bank of England is likely to cut interest rates by 100 basis points by 2025, with reductions probably occurring quarterly at 25 basis points each. Additionally, all 71 economists surveyed predicted that the central bank would hold the interest rate steady at 4.75% during its December 19 meeting.
3. Challenges in AI Oversight:
The UK is facing challenges in its efforts to expand global oversight of artificial intelligence. The country aims to strengthen its “Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute” (AISI) and solidify its position as a leading institution in researching AI risks. However, plans to open a new office in San Francisco have been delayed due to elections in the US and the UK, as well as hiring challenges.
4. London’s IPO Market Decline:
The London Stock Exchange, once a leading and prestigious center for initial public offerings (IPOs), has now fallen to 20th place among global markets, recording none of the top 100 IPOs in 2024. Markets like Oman, Malaysia, and Luxembourg have outperformed London in attracting IPO capital. The outflow of companies from the London Stock Exchange has also risen, exacerbated by 41 consecutive months of capital outflow from UK equity funds, increasing pressure on market brokers to merge or sell.
5. Australia’s Unemployment Rate:
Australia’s unemployment rate in November dropped to its lowest level in eight months, while employment continued its strong growth trend. This surprising strength led markets to reassess the likelihood of a rate cut in February, following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s unexpected dovish shift that hinted at potential monetary easing. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that the unemployment rate fell from 4.1% in October to 3.9% in November, the lowest since March. Analysts had expected unemployment to rise to 4.2%. The participation rate declined from 67.1% to 67.0%. Net employment in November increased by 35,600 compared to a revised figure of 12,200 in October, exceeding market expectations of a 25,000-job gain, driven largely by full-time employment growth.
GBPAUD FORECASTWhen I look the higher time frame, this pair is looking to have the higher probability to drop. The 4H timeframe has made me to look it with a close eye today. So guys let's wait and see how the market will play out
Fri 13th Dec 2024 Daily Forex Charts: 8x New Trade SetupsGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified 8x new trade setups this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the charts for my thoughts on these setups. The trades being a EUR/USD Sell, GBP/USD Sell, Silver Sell, AUD/CHF Buy, EUR/AUD Sell, GBP/AUD Sell, AUD/NZD Buy & CAD/CHF Buy. I also discuss some trade management. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
GBPAUDWe can attempt to buy GBPAUD from specified level as it make HL , also bullish divergence occur indicate that it moves upward.
SL , TP mention in chart.
GBPAUD Wave Analysis 12 December 2024
- GBPAUD reversed from resistance zone
- Likely to fall to support level 1.9800
GBPAUD currency pair recently reversed down sharply from the resistance area between the upper daily Bollinger Band, key resistance level 2.0045 (former multi-month high from April) and the resistance trendline of the wide daily up channel from October.
The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Shooting Star Doji.
Given the strength of the aforementioned resistance area and the overbought daily Stochastic, GBPAUD currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 1.9800.
#USDAUD 1DAYUSDAUD Daily Analysis
The USDAUD pair is trading within an uptrend channel on the daily chart and is currently approaching the resistance line of the channel. This resistance area is a critical zone where selling pressure may emerge, making it a potential sell opportunity if the price shows signs of rejection.
Technical Outlook:
Pattern: Uptrend Channel and Resistance
Forecast: Bearish (Sell Opportunity)
Entry Strategy: Enter a sell position if the price confirms rejection at the resistance line with bearish price action signals.
Traders should monitor for reversal patterns, such as bearish engulfing candlesticks or indicators like RSI signaling overbought conditions. Proper risk management is essential, with stop-loss orders placed above the resistance line and profit targets set near the channel's midline or lower boundary.
GBPAUD: How To Hedge Antipodean FX Pairs And Protect PositionsHere's my rundown on how I am trading GBPAUD.
Fast swing can be vicious but not existential.
GBPAUD LONGThis trade is complete with the H4 trend
There is a pattern on M15 for this trade
All timeframes are oversold and there is divergence
Stop loss of 50 pips
take profit at overbought
GBPAUD - Possible Reversal, Momentum DivergenceGBPAUD is testing the support of the previous Oct 30 pivot high with sharper down moves occurring which could indicate a topping out of the previous move.
Whether the pivot level becomes support or resistance will likely be revealed soon.
GBP news is approaching so may act as a trigger for a large move if the market doesn't preempt it's direction beforehand.
Bearish drop?GBP/AUD has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 38.2% Fibonacci support.
Pivot: 1.9948
1st Support: 1.9767
1st Resistance: 2.0104
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
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GBPAUDOn weekly time frame, this pair is still on a corrective wave. We have broke the trendline of a flag which is continuation pattern. We anticipate a bullish move to complete wave 4 for the potential bearish move.
gbpaud short sellgbpaud is now at the daily resistance level. and noe made h4 divergence. so we instant sell the gbpaud with sl above the daily resistance level and wait for our target of 1:3 and hopefully setup will go accordingly inshallaha...
GBPAUD SHORTSWeekly : price is reaching a resistance that has not been broken since March 20' with this being the third attempt since then.
Daily : price is rejecting for the third time level of resistance at 2.01000
4h : bullish structure. Now rejecting from round psych level.
1h : I am expecting price to continue its move down, breaking and creating previous/new lower low at 2.00000 which is also an interesting round psych level
GBPAUD SELL signal. Don't forget about stop-loss.
Write in the comments all your questions and instruments analysis of which you want to see.
Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade
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GbpAud- Long term outlookAfter a strong reversal from the 1.6 low, which gained 4,000 pips, GBP/AUD encountered significant resistance around the 2.0 zone. This resistance led to a prolonged consolidation phase lasting over a year.
On the weekly chart, this consolidation appears to have formed an ascending triangle, a bullish continuation pattern. At this point, there is a high probability of a genuine breakout to the upside.
If the breakout occurs and holds, we can anticipate a continuation of the uptrend, potentially adding another 2,000 pips to the pair's upward movement. Interim resistance lies near the 2.08 level, which could serve as a target for swing traders or a key area to monitor for price action.
