GBP/CAD — The Bear’s Assault After the Fortress Breach🛡️ The Battlefield Overview
GBP/CAD has been defending a major support fortress around 1.88000, a zone tested and respected multiple times. The market paused here, gathering strength, shaking off weak hands — a classic liquidity zone where smart money orchestrates their next moves.
As the week closes, a powerful bearish candle slams the gates shut, confirming that bears are not just probing but launching a decisive assault.
🔥 The Warrior’s Dual Paths
The Strategic Flush & Drop — Higher Probability
After the pause and liquidity grab near 1.88000, the market filled the stops and trapped buyers, then surged downward with momentum. This path signals a calculated bear strike, leading price toward the next critical support near 1.82000.
The small corrective moves along the way will be mere breathers before the next leg down, typical of a disciplined market march.
The Sudden Break & Follow-Through — Less Likely, But Possible
Price could bypass minor corrections and plunge directly to 1.82000, respecting the momentum built from the heavy bearish close. Given historical pauses and structure, this is less probable but must be acknowledged.
⚖️ The Market Warrior’s Summary
“The bears have declared their intent with a mighty blow — the fortress crumbles and the battleground shifts. Patience will reward those who read the traps, for the march to 1.82000 is paved with the footprints of smart money.”
GBPCAD trade ideas
GBPCAD Counter-Trend SELL(Weekly) - Price hit previous extreme high at (1.85932 - 1.87820) and was rejected forming double top neckline at (1.81470 - 1.80561) .
(Weekly) - Previous Week Candle Close is Shooting Star showing sellers taking action at Key Resistance level.
(Daily) - Price formed double top inside our resistance level at (1.85932 - 1.87820).
(Daily) - Price broke double neckline at (1.85533 - 1.85774).
(H4) - Price was in distribution at (1.86602 - 1.85774).
(H4) - Rising Trendline that price broke connecting (1.80561 - 1.86011).
Trade Entry.
(H4) - Wait for price to retest our daily double top neckline & low of the distribution at (1.85533 - 1.85774) to join the reversal.
(H4) - Take profit at Weekly Double Top Neckline at (1.81470 - 1.80561).
GBPCAD: Expecting Bearish Continuation! Here is Why:
The price of GBPCAD will most likely collapse soon enough, due to the supply beginning to exceed demand which we can see by looking at the chart of the pair.
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GBPCAD – Long Setup / SMC and Price ActionGBPCAD – Long Setup
Price tapped into the bullish order block (1.86079 – 1.85979) aligned with the ascending trendline support. A bullish bounce is anticipated from this zone, aiming for a move back toward the channel resistance.
📌 Entry: 1.86080
🎯 Take Profit: 1.86766
🛡️ Stop Loss: 1.85917
✅ Risk to Reward: ~3.4R
Let’s see how price respects the structure.
GBP/CAD BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are now examining the GBP/CAD pair and we can see that the pair is going up locally while also being in a uptrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB upper band being nearby, indicating that the pair is overbought so we can go short from the resistance line above and a target at 1.825 level.
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GBPCAD expectation 1HWith Canada releasing good news the market is responding well, we need at least 3 candles above this trend line to confirm a rise of a new high and a breaking out of the range its been in. MA is a good distance away from price, so we looking good for a buy. Trade safe guys. See you soon. #ToTheMoonTogether
GBPCAD Short SetupPrice broke below the ascending structure and is now pulling back for a potential retest of the underside (previous support turned resistance). I’m watching the marked red zone for a possible bearish reaction – ideally with rejection wicks or bearish engulfing confirmation.
RSI is recovering but approaching potential overbought territory. If price reacts at the retest zone, I expect continuation down toward the lower boundary of the larger descending channel.
⚠️ Patience here – no entry yet, just planning the short if conditions align.
Let the market come to you.
GBP/CAD BEST PLACE TO BUY FROM|LONG
Hello, Friends!
We are now examining the GBP/CAD pair and we can see that the pair is going down locally while also being in a downtrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB lower band being nearby indicating that the pair is oversold so we can go long from the support line below and a target at 1.866 level.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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GBPCAD ENTER INTO DOWNTREND STRUCTUREGBPCAD ENTER INTO DOWNTREND STRUCTURE.
Price break the key support level and formed lower low.
Market is expected to remain Bearish in upcoming sessions.
On higher side market may test the resistance level of 1.8690.
On bearish side market may achieve target level of 1.8320.
GBPCAD is in the bearish directionHello Traders
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GBPCAD: Bearish Continuation is Expected! Here is Why:
Looking at the chart of GBPCAD right now we are seeing some interesting price action on the lower timeframes. Thus a local move down seems to be quite likely.
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GBP/CAD Poised for Breakout – What’s Next After 1.8600?1. TECHNICAL CONTEXT (Daily Chart)
GBP/CAD has been trading within a well-defined ascending channel since early 2025. After hitting the lower bound of the channel around 1.8050 in May, price bounced sharply and regained strength, pushing back above the key 1.8400–1.8450 zone, now confirmed as new support.
Currently, price is approaching the 1.8600 area, which represents:
The upper boundary of the April–May consolidation range
A clear supply zone visible on the weekly chart
A technical resistance cluster (previous closes + Fibonacci levels)
The RSI shows growing momentum, yet not overbought, suggesting potential upside extension toward 1.8779, the monthly high.
Key Technical Levels:
Resistance: 1.8600 – 1.8779 (extended target)
Support: 1.8401 (weekly) and 1.8250 (mid-range level)
Primary Trend: Bullish
Structure: Active ascending channel
2. INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING (COT REPORT – May 13, 2025)
CAD:
Non-Commercials (speculators) are heavily net short:
23,250 longs vs 105,466 shorts = -82,216 net
Weekly increase: +18,084 new shorts → clear rise in bearish pressure
Commercials (hedgers) are net long, typical of risk hedging, indicating an opposing view to speculators
GBP:
Non-Commercials are net long:
89,540 longs vs 62,324 shorts = +27,216 net, despite a minor weekly reduction (-4,844)
Commercials are net short, likely hedging strength in the pound
COT Takeaway:
Speculators are clearly favoring GBP strength vs CAD, while CAD is under heavy short pressure. This supports further upside in GBP/CAD.
3. RETAIL SENTIMENT
80% of retail traders are short GBP/CAD, with an average entry at 1.8551
20% long, with average entry at 1.8147
This extreme retail skew represents a contrarian bullish signal: the market may push higher to trigger stop-losses on poorly positioned shorts.
4. SEASONALITY
CAD in May:
Mixed behavior with a slight bearish/neutral tendency on 10y and 2y averages
Monthly average: as low as -0.0097 (10-year data)
GBP in May:
Historically one of the weakest months for the British pound
Average returns range between -0.015 and -0.0226
That said, 2025 appears to diverge from seasonal norms, with GBP showing relative strength across the board.
Seasonality Takeaway:
While seasonality favors CAD over GBP in May, this year’s price action and positioning override that pattern.
TRADING SUMMARY
🔹 Primary Bias: Moderately Bullish
🔹 Technical Outlook: Positive structure above key support at 1.8400
🔹 COT Insight: Supports upside due to aggressive CAD short buildup
🔹 Retail Sentiment: Skewed short → potential short squeeze
🔹 Seasonality: Bearish for GBP, but currently outweighed by fundamentals/positioning
SCENARIOS
📈 Bullish Scenario (preferred):
Break and hold above 1.8600 → acceleration toward 1.8779
Midway target: 1.8670 (psychological level)
Technical stop: Below 1.8400 (or trailing SL on breakout)
📉 Corrective Scenario:
Failure at 1.8600 → pullback to 1.8401 (bullish retest)
Deeper weakness only confirmed on break below 1.8250, which would invalidate the ascending channel
CONCLUSION
GBP/CAD is in a structurally bullish setup, backed by speculative favor toward GBP and an extreme short bias on CAD. Despite the unfavorable seasonality for GBP, the technical trend and positioning data justify a bullish outlook with a target at 1.8779, contingent on a confirmed break above 1.8600.
Cad possibly overtaking GBP! 150 pip move!Looking for a short on GBPCAD. Two possible outcomes, but an initial loss will make the eventual move down more violent!
CAD is firming with its strongest daily gains in months, supported by robust data and oil strength.
GBP is stable-to-firm, but the rally is more USD-related than domestic drivers.
The fundamental gravity favors CAD heading into next week—making your GBPCAD short thesis (CAD strength, GBP pressured) highly relevant.
GBP-CAD Support Cluster! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
GBP-CAD is trading in a
Local uptrend along the
Rising support and the pair
Made a retest of the support
Cluster of the rising and
Horizontal support lines
Around 1.8546 from where
We are already seeing a
Bullish rebound so we
Will be expecting a
Further local bullish move
Up on Monday
Buy!
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GBP_CAD RISING SUPPORT AHEAD|LONG|
✅GBP_CAD is trading along the rising support
And as the pair will soon retest it
I am expecting the price to go up
To retest the supply levels above at 1.8605
LONG🚀
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.