EURGBP Analysis : Bearish Leg Nearing Completion + Target Zone📍 Overview:
The EURGBP pair has recently provided significant price action signals that suggest a high-probability reversal setup is unfolding. This analysis dives deep into market structure, supply and demand dynamics, and institutional price behavior using MMC principles.
The current focus lies in identifying a potential trend reversal opportunity after a sharp decline from a key supply level, as price nears a well-marked Reversal Zone. This detailed breakdown covers each phase to provide clarity and trade planning.
🧩 Phase 1: Consolidation Phase (Accumulation)
From July 11th to July 24th, EURGBP moved sideways within a clearly defined range-bound structure (highlighted in green).
This consolidation indicates a battle of control between bulls and bears, typically signaling accumulation or distribution depending on breakout direction.
The tight price action and wicks on both sides suggest market makers accumulating positions before a breakout.
Price eventually broke out to the upside, confirming bullish accumulation rather than distribution.
🚀 Phase 2: Impulse Move & 2x Supply Rejection
Following the breakout from the consolidation, price experienced a strong impulsive rally, catching breakout traders and pushing into a major supply zone.
The area where price reversed is marked as a 2x supply rejection zone, suggesting heavy institutional sell orders were triggered.
This zone aligns with a historical resistance level and is critical in the current structure.
Price failed to sustain the bullish momentum, forming a sharp drop right after tapping into supply, indicating strong selling pressure.
🔄 Phase 3: Market Structure Shift via QFL (Quick Flip Levels)
As the price dropped from the supply zone, two significant QFL levels were printed in quick succession.
QFL (Quick Flip Levels) represent a break in internal structure, showing that buyers were no longer defending the previous support zones.
These quick flips signal an aggressive shift in momentum from buyers to sellers.
Each QFL breakdown was followed by a new lower low, confirming the start of a bearish sequence or trend leg.
📉 Phase 4: Descending Trendline & Dynamic Resistance
After the QFL shifts, a clear downtrend channel formed, respected by multiple lower highs.
The descending trendline drawn from the supply zone peak has acted as dynamic resistance, rejecting every bullish pullback attempt.
This trendline provides technical confluence for intraday traders to manage risk and timing entries.
🟠 Current Market Context: Entering the Reversal Zone
Price is now approaching a marked Reversal Zone (highlighted in orange).
This zone represents a high-probability demand area, previously respected as a base before the rally to supply.
If price reaches this area and shows signs of exhaustion (e.g., bullish engulfing, long wick rejection, volume divergence), it may serve as a reversal point.
This zone aligns with MMC logic — market makers tend to react at zones of trapped liquidity, especially after stop hunts.
📈 Projected Scenario & Trade Setup:
Price drops into the Reversal Zone
A bullish rejection pattern appears (e.g., pin bar, engulfing candle)
Price retests and breaks the descending trendline to confirm a momentum shift
Entry can be taken post-breakout or with aggressive confirmation inside the zone
Stops placed below the zone; targets aligned with the previous QFL or trendline retest
⚠️ Key Notes for Traders:
Don't chase the move. Wait for reversal confirmation before entering.
QFLs offer strong structure-based levels to identify where the market flipped.
Use trendline confluence and volume confirmation for precise entries.
Monitor price action in the Reversal Zone — if invalidated, the downtrend may extend toward the next macro support.
Apply proper risk management and stay patient for the setup to fully develop.
📊 Summary:
🧭 Bias: Short-term bearish → possible reversal bullish
🎯 Entry Area: Reversal Zone (0.85800 – 0.86000 approx.)
⛔ Invalidation: Clean break and close below 0.85700
🏁 Potential Target: First TP near 0.86750; extended TP near 0.87050 (previous QFL level)
🔄 MMC Approach Recap:
This analysis follows the Market Maker Cycle (MMC) method, which involves:
Consolidation (Accumulation)
Manipulation (False Breakouts or Stop Hunts)
Distribution (Rapid Expansion & Flip Levels)
Re-Accumulation or Reversal
Each step is clearly defined in this chart, offering a blueprint for both trend traders and reversal specialists.
💬 Let's Talk:
What do you think about this setup? Are you seeing similar MMC patterns on other EUR or GBP crosses?
Drop your thoughts, charts, and questions below!
