EURGBP Curved Support Breakout – Targeting Reversal Zone🔍 Market Context & Structural Narrative (MMC Style)
The EURGBP pair is currently displaying a textbook MMC structural evolution, transitioning from a bearish trend into a potential bullish leg driven by curve dynamics and trap-break logic.
🔨 Phase 1: Bearish Channel & Trap Formation
The market initially moved within a clearly defined descending channel, which acted as a trap for reactive sellers. Each lower high and lower low within the channel created a perception of sustained bearishness, luring breakout traders and late sellers into short positions.
✅ Key Insight:
This trap zone represents the first step in MMC logic — create a visible structure, generate bias, then prepare for inversion.
🌙 Phase 2: Curve Support – Psychological Accumulation
Around the base of the channel, the market began forming a rounded bottom or curve support. This is a signature MMC accumulation pattern, where market makers gradually absorb sell orders and build long positions without triggering immediate attention.
The curve support has the following implications:
Represents passive accumulation.
Suggests waning bearish pressure.
Builds bullish pressure subtly, often missed by retail traders.
🧠 MMC Mindset Tip:
Curved price action isn't just technical — it's psychological. It represents a controlled shift in sentiment, not an impulsive change, which is what makes it so powerful.
💥 Phase 3: Break of Structure (BOS) – Confirmation of Strength
Price breaks out of both the descending channel and the curved base, leading to a Major Break of Structure (BOS). This BOS is critical, as it confirms the invalidity of the previous bearish narrative and activates a new bullish leg.
📌 This BOS is more than a line — it’s a wall of liquidity getting broken. Price has now closed above key swing highs, which suggests:
Smart money is in control.
Trend shift is validated.
New demand zone created below.
🎯 Projection: The Path to the Next Reversal Zone (NRZ)
Following the breakout, price is projected to:
Possibly retest the breakout level (structure retest) aligned with the curve support — a healthy bullish pullback.
Then move higher towards the Next Reversal Zone (NRZ), which is your defined target area.
📌 NRZ Insight:
This zone is where the market is likely to face:
High liquidity.
Strong previous supply.
Potential profit-taking by early bulls.
Thus, this becomes the make-or-break zone — price either:
Reverses sharply,
Or breaks through and continues the bull rally.
⚠️ Multiple Scenarios Based on MMC Conditions
✅ Scenario 1: Retest & Bounce (Ideal MMC Setup)
Price pulls back to retest the breakout level or the curve support.
Shows bullish confirmation (e.g., pin bar, bullish engulfing).
Targets the NRZ above 0.8700.
❌ Scenario 2: Failed Retest – Fakeout Trap
Price breaks below the curve and structure again.
Suggests that the BOS was a false breakout.
Could re-enter the previous bearish channel structure.
🔄 Scenario 3: Direct Rally Without Retest
Strong momentum buyers push price directly to NRZ.
Wait for reaction at NRZ — could trigger a reversal or continuation depending on price behavior.
🧠 MMC Strategic Takeaways:
Trap → Break → Shift is the psychological framework in play.
The curve is not just support — it's evidence of silent accumulation.
The NRZ isn’t just resistance — it's the battleground where MM logic resolves.
🔐 Trading Insights (Optional Entry Ideas):
Entry: On bullish confirmation near 0.8660–0.8665 (curve/structure support).
SL: Below curve base (e.g., 0.8640).
TP: Near or slightly below NRZ (0.8700–0.8705), partial profits or full exit.
