GBP/JPY) Bearish analysis Read The ChaptianSMC Trading point update
GBP/JPY 2-hour chart outlines a clear bearish setup within a well-defined downtrend. Here's a breakdown of the trading idea:
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Technical Overview:
Downtrend Channel:
The pair is respecting a downward-sloping channel, with repeated rejections at the upper boundary, confirming bearish control.
Resistance Zone (~187.8 - 188.5):
Price has reached a highlighted resistance area that aligns with previous swing highs and trendline resistance — marked with red arrows for prior rejections.
Bearish Projection:
The analysis anticipates a rejection from this resistance zone followed by a downward impulse move. A pullback is expected, but continuation toward the target support zone around 179.150 is likely.
Target Zone (~179.150):
This level lines up with previous price action and matches the measured move (blue vertical box), adding confluence.
EMA 200 (around 190.36):
Price is well below the 200 EMA, reinforcing the bearish structure and trend bias.
RSI Indicator (~52):
RSI is slightly above 50 but not bullish — this neutral reading suggests the pair has room to drop if resistance holds.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Trading Idea Summary:
Bias: Bearish
Entry Zone: 187.8 – 188.5 (resistance)
Confirmation: Bearish candlestick pattern or rejection signal
Target: 179.150
Invalidation: Break and close above 190.365 (above EMA 200 and prior highs)
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plase support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
GBPJPY trade ideas
GBP/JPY Triangle Breakout (11.04.2025)The GBP/JPY Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 184.40
2nd Support – 182.60
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#GBPJPY: Will JPY Drop or Continue The Bullish Trend? As JPY strengthens, all ‘XXXJPY’ pairs sold heavily. This trade war scenario is uncertain, so it brings significant risk. If strong news supports the US DOLLAR, we’ll likely see a sharp price drop. Use accurate risk management and analyse before blindly following any advice.
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GBPJPY Is Going Down! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for GBPJPY.
Time Frame: 45m
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 188.674.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 187.917 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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GBPJPY LONGPrice has taken out previous AOI and did not give us a clear entry where it rejected. However we now allowed price to play out and give us an key potential entry level
considering other price patterns we can see the beautiful H&S and we can clearly see how price has rejected of that key AOI and potential right shoulder.
GBPJPY Trading Opportunity! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for GBPJPY below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 188.12
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 190.71
Safe Stop Loss - 186.87
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
GBPJPY:SIGNALHello dears
Considering the heavy decline we had, you can see that buyers entered with a strong bullish spike, which is a good sign...
Now we can buy in steps on the price pullback and move with it to the specified targets, of course with capital and risk management.
*Trade safely with us*
GBP/JPY Awaits a Bearish BreakoutFenzoFx—GBP/JPY trades slightly above the 50-period SMA at 188.4, but the trend remains bearish below the 50.0% Fibonacci resistance level. The Stochastic Oscillator signals an overbought state, suggesting short-term pressure.
A downtrend may resume if GBP/JPY closes below 187.6, targeting 186.0. Conversely, a break above 190.2 resistance could extend momentum to 192.0.
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GBP/JPY Bearish Reversal Setup–Eyeing Breakdown from Supply Zone1. Supply Zone (Resistance Area) 🟦 Supply Zone:
Located around 189.500–190.000
🔺 Price got rejected here multiple times — strong selling pressure.
2. Ascending Trendline Support
📈 Trendline connecting higher lows (marked with yellow dots)
🟡 Support tested multiple times, acting as a rising wedge structure.
3. EMA (7) — Exponential Moving Average
⚫️ EMA (black line) is currently near price — indicating short-term trend stalling.
4. Bearish Breakout Setup
🔻 Anticipated price drop shown with red/orange arrows
📉 If price breaks below trendline:
🎯 Target Point: 186.600
⬇️ Expected drop: ~1.51%
5. Price Movement Outlook
🔁 Possible minor pullback before breakdown
⛔️ Bearish signal increases if the trendline fails.
Summary (with emojis):
📍 Entry Idea: Short near resistance zone (189.500–190.000)
⛓ Trigger: Break of trendline support
🎯 Target: 186.600
⚠️ Stop-loss: Above 190.000 (above supply zone)
GBPJPY Q2 FY25 FORECASTim expecting a big dip then reversal at any of the marked price levels
fundamentally if i were to gauge which one id look at the following factors
GBP
M1 Money Supply: As of November 2024, the UK's M1 money supply stood at £2,221,455 million.
M2 Money Supply: In the same period, the M2 money supply was £3,067,494 million, marking an increase from £3,062,782 million in October 2024.
The modest month-over-month growth in M2 suggests a cautious approach by the Bank of England (BoE) towards monetary expansion. This restraint may indicate efforts to control inflation and maintain currency stability. However, the overall high levels of money supply reflect the substantial monetary interventions undertaken in previous years.
JPY
M1 Money Supply: In December 2024, Japan's M1 money supply reached ¥1,096,496.5 billion, up from ¥1,091,290 billion in November 2024.
M2 Money Supply: During the same period, the M2 money supply increased to ¥1,257,683.8 billion from ¥1,254,910.3 billion.
The incremental increases in both M1 and M2 indicate a steady, albeit slow, expansion of Japan's money supply. This aligns with the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) longstanding accommodative monetary policy aimed at combating deflation and stimulating economic growth.
So..
The UK's relatively stable M2 growth suggests a balanced approach, potentially leading to moderate inflation and a stable GBP. In contrast, Japan's slow money supply growth reflects its ongoing struggle with low inflation and economic stagnation, which may continue to exert downward pressure on the JPY.
Outlook
If current trends persist:
The BoE's measured monetary expansion may support the pound's stability. However, vigilance is required to manage inflationary pressures that could arise from external factors or supply chain disruptions.
The BoJ's continued accommodative stance suggests that the yen may remain weak, especially if inflation remains subdued and economic growth lags.
In short, the UK's cautious monetary policy may bolster the GBP's position, while Japan's persistent low growth and inflation challenges could keep the JPY under pressure. Monitoring these monetary indicators will be crucial for anticipating future currency movements.
now since im all for the dxy crashing i decided to factor that in
these are my takeaways
If DXY collapses slowly, GBP and JPY both rise, but GBP/JPY stays relatively stable as usual
If DXY collapses sharply due to a crisis, JPY outperforms massively, and GBP/JPY drops sharply
If the BoE cuts rates aggressively, GBP weakens, while JPY gets even stronger
If the BoJ tightens monetary policy while DXY crashes, JPY surges, and GBP/JPY could plummet below 180.
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GBPJPY - Bullish Head & Shoulders PatternWalking you through a potential bullish head and shoulders pattern on the GBPJPY sharing with you 2 ways to tell if it's valid & where I would expect price to rally too if the pattern were to work out.
If you have any questions or comments about the setup (or anything else trading related) feel free to leave them below as i do go through and respond to each and every one.
Akil
GBP/JPY - Resistance into fibonacci golden pocketGBP/JPY 1H Technical Analysis - Key Levels
Price action shows clear resistance zones marked by Lift indicators at 0.28 , 0.08 , and 0.06 levels. The market appears slightly overbought with Lift readings of 0.01 to 0.05 , suggesting potential for pullback or consolidation.
Key observations:
- Resistance cluster between 0.06-0.28 may cap upside moves
- Overbought conditions warrant caution for longs
- Monitor Lift indicator for trend continuation signals
Trading approach:
Consider short opportunities near resistance with stops above 0.28 , or wait for pullback to support for long entries if momentum sustains.
for more FX analysis. Comments welcome!
Bullish bounce off 61.8% Fibonacci retracement?GBP/JPY has bounced off the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 186.61
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 184.39
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 189.96
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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GBP/JPY testing critical zoneThe GBP/JPY is testing a critical resistance area between 189.20 to 190.00. For as long as this area holds as resistance, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
Should the selling resume from here, we could see the Guppy trade down to test the key support range between 185.00 to 186.00 again.
However, if the GBP/JPY breaks decisively above the 189.20 to 190.00 range, then that could potentially pave the way for a short-squeeze rally towards the next major resistance in the 193.00 to 194.20 range, where we also have the 200 day MA converging.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com