GBP/JPY e Analysis & Probability Estimation March 4 2025Key Observations Across Timeframes:
1. Market Structure & Trend Analysis:
Short-term (M15, M30):
Price is consolidating near 189.200, testing the previous daily low (PDL) for liquidity.
A Break of Structure (BOS) occurred, signaling short-term bearish control.
The price is hovering at a key demand zone (PWL - 188.500/187.800).
If price breaks below 188.800, further downside is likely.
Mid-term (H1, H4):
The price rejected equilibrium (~189.800 - 190.000), showing weakness.
A Change of Character (ChOCH) to the downside suggests a bearish trend continuation.
Liquidity below PWL (187.800) could be a target before a potential bounce.
Long-term (D1):
The price is in a larger downtrend, failing to break above premium zones (~190.500 - 192.000).
Liquidity below PWL (~188.000 - 187.500) is uncollected, making it a likely target.
The next major support lies in the discount zone (~185.500 - 186.500).
2. Key Liquidity Zones & Supply/Demand Areas:
Premium Zone (~190.500 - 192.000): Major resistance; rejection happened here.
Equilibrium (~189.800 - 190.000): Price failed to hold above, signaling weakness.
Discount Zone (~187.500 - 186.500): Next strong demand area if price continues lower.
Previous Daily Low (PDL - 188.800): Price is testing this level for liquidity; a break here could lead to further downside.
Previous Weekly Low (PWL - 187.500): Untapped liquidity below, making it a strong target for price movement.
Probability-Based Scenarios:
1. Bearish Continuation to 187.800 - 186.500 (Break Below PDL & PWL)
Probability: 65%
Reasons:
Failure to hold above equilibrium (189.800).
Bearish BOS & ChOCH confirmations on H1/H4 suggest a move down.
Liquidity below 188.000 (PWL) remains uncollected.
Strong daily downtrend supports further downside.
Bearish Confirmation:
If price breaks and holds below 188.800, expect a move toward 187.500 - 186.500.
2. Bullish Reversal from Discount Zone (Bounce from 188.500 - 187.500)
Probability: 35%
Reasons:
Potential liquidity grab at PWL (188.000 - 187.500) before reversing.
Demand zone at 187.500 - 186.500 could cause a bullish reaction.
If price holds above 188.800, we may see a bounce to 189.800 - 190.000.
Bullish Confirmation:
If price fails to break below 188.500, a push back toward equilibrium (189.800) is possible.
Final Thoughts & Trade Plan:
Bearish bias (65% probability) for continuation toward 187.800 - 186.500.
Key Confirmation Levels:
Below 188.800: Bearish toward 187.500 - 186.500.
Above 189.200: Potential bullish recovery toward 189.800 - 190.000.
Trade Setup Overview:
Bias: Bearish (65% probability)
Entry Type: Breakout & Retest
📉 Sell (Short) Trade Setup:
🔴 Entry: Below 188.800 (Confirmed BOS)
🎯 Take Profit (TP) Targets:
TP1: 188.200 (PWL - Previous Weekly Low)
TP2: 187.800 (Liquidity sweep level)
TP3: 186.500 (Major discount zone)
🛑 Stop Loss (SL): 189.400 (Above minor liquidity)
📊 Risk-to-Reward (R:R):
TP1: ~1:2
TP2: ~1:3
TP3: ~1:5
🔹 Confirmation Needed:
Strong candle close below 188.800 (Break & retest scenario)
No immediate bullish rejection at 188.500
📈 Buy (Long) Trade Setup (Lower Probability - 35%)
🟢 Entry: Above 189.200 (Bullish rejection & BOS)
🎯 Take Profit (TP) Targets:
TP1: 189.800 (Equilibrium zone)
TP2: 190.500 (Supply zone)
TP3: 191.500 (Major resistance)
🛑 Stop Loss (SL): 188.700 (Below structure low)
📊 Risk-to-Reward (R:R):
TP1: ~1:2
TP2: ~1:3
TP3: ~1:5
🔹 Confirmation Needed:
Price needs to hold above 189.200 with strong bullish momentum.
No immediate rejection from equilibrium (189.800).
🛠️ Execution Tips:
🔄 Wait for a clear breakout & retest before entering.
⚖️ Adjust lot size based on risk tolerance (~1-2% per trade).
🕰️ Monitor price action on the lower timeframes (M15/M30) for entry precision.
