GBP/JPY 30-Minute Chart Analysis & Probability Estimation (Feb 2
**Key Observations:**
1. **Market Structure:**
- The price is currently within a **consolidation phase** around the **equilibrium level**.
- **Multiple Change of Character (ChOCH) points** suggest liquidity grabs and re-accumulation/distribution.
- The **Break of Structure (BOS)** earlier signals bearish intent, but the price is reacting to the **discount zone**.
2. **Supply & Demand Zones:**
- **Premium Zone (Red Area - 190.000 & Above):** Strong supply area.
- **Discount Zone (Blue Area - Below 188.500):** Demand area, where buyers are showing interest.
3. **Liquidity Areas:**
- **Weak High & Previous Day High (PDH ~189.800):** A potential liquidity grab zone.
- **Previous Day Low (PDL ~188.200):** A strong low that might get tested.
4. **Current Price Action:**
- Price is rejecting the **discount zone** and trying to move higher.
- Still trading below the **PDH resistance zone**, meaning further upside requires a liquidity grab.
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**Probability-Based Scenarios:**
1. **Bullish Scenario (Price moves up to PDH - 189.800 or Premium Zone - 190.500)**
- **Probability: 60%**
- **Reasons:**
- Price rejected the **discount zone**, showing buyer strength.
- ChOCH shifts indicate possible bullish re-accumulation.
- Liquidity above **weak highs** (potential target area).
2. **Bearish Scenario (Price moves down to PDL - 188.200 or below)**
- **Probability: 40%**
- **Reasons:**
- If price fails to break and hold above equilibrium, it may seek liquidity at PDL.
- Strong low at PWL (Potential Weak Low) might be a target before bullish continuation.
- Market is currently undecided within equilibrium.
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**Final Thoughts:**
- **Slightly higher probability of bullish continuation (60%)** as buyers are defending discount zones.
- **Watch for confirmation:** If price **breaks and holds above 189.200**, then the bullish move is likely.
- **Bearish case:** If price **rejects and falls below 188.800**, then further downside is likely.
