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GBPJPY trade ideas

GBP/JPY Breaks Above 196.00! Continuation or Distribution?Detailed Techno-Macro Analysis – GBP/JPY GBP/JPY has just completed a significant weekly structure breakout, pushing through a key supply zone between 195.00 and 196.30 — an area that historically acted as strong resistance. The breakout occurred via a high-volatility daily candle that closed above the zone, indicating strong bullish pressure. 🔍 Structure & Price Action Price action shows higher lows and higher highs: a clearly defined bullish structure. The breakout originated from an accumulation base, following a false bearish breakout below 188.50 (bull trap). RSI is around 70 on the daily timeframe → strong momentum, but signs of potential exhaustion. 🧠 Key Zones Identified Current weekly supply: 195.00 – 196.80 (being tested) Next resistance: 198.70 – 199.50 (swing high and monthly level) Immediate support: 194.00 – 192.80 (ideal area for pullback and long setups) Structural support: 190.50 – 188.80 Invalidation: Daily close below 191.00 → potential reversal signal 📈 Macro & Fundamental Context 🇬🇧 UK Macro Update Wages rising: +5.5% (above expectations) → could support further monetary tightening Claimant count increasing → early weakness in the labor market Mixed data, but wage growth bias favors GBP strength 🇯🇵 JPY Still Weak BoJ remains ultra-accommodative Verbal interventions from Japanese officials haven’t yet had structural impact 🪙 Retail Sentiment 70% of retail traders are short GBP/JPY, with an average price of 190.59 Only 30% are long, with an average price of 194.65 ➡️ Current price (196.30) is above both → retail squeeze in play. Contrarian setup confirmed. 🧾 COT Report GBP (Non-Commercial Speculators): Long: +3,320 contracts Short: -1,956 contracts ➡️ Net long positions increasing → favorable institutional exposure JPY: Mixed positions, with increases in both long and short → institutional neutrality on the yen 📅 Seasonality – GBP/JPY May is historically bearish on both 5Y and 20Y timeframes: 5Y: -2.52% 20Y: -0.43% Only the 2Y pattern shows a positive return ➡️ Negative seasonality vs. bullish technical structure → conflict worth watching 🔍 Execution Summary The bullish breakout is strong and supported by sentiment and institutional positioning, but price is now entering a potential distribution zone, where profit-taking could increase. 👉 Main scenario: technical pullback toward 194.00–192.80 for possible long entries, targeting 198.50–199.50 👉 Alternative scenario: daily close below 191.00 → bias reversal and bearish continuation
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
GBPJPY ChoCh + Order Block = Bearish Liquidity Hunt Setup 🧠 Smart Money Breakdown: GBPJPY | 30-Min Chart This is one of those A+ textbook SMC setups where Smart Money is likely loading shorts before the next liquidity raid. Let’s break it down: 🔄 1. Change of Character (ChoCh) Market flipped structure cleanly, printing a ChoCh below a key internal low. That’s our signal that Smart Money is likely done accumulating and prepping for a distribution move. 🟪 2. Order Block + Premium Price Zone Price is retracing into a well-defined bearish Order Block right inside a premium zone. This OB sits just below a Strong High at 195.855 — a clear inducement level. Retail traders will chase that high... and get wrecked. You’ll notice that OB is marked around 195.341–195.600 — right where liquidity pools stack. 🧲 3. Target: Weak Low at 193.640 Smart Money doesn’t care about patterns. It wants liquidity — and there’s a juicy Weak Low sitting at 193.640 waiting to be swept. 📐 4. Trade Setup Idea (R:R Approx. 4:1) 🔼 Entry Zone: 195.300–195.500 ❌ Stop Loss: Just above Strong High: 195.880 ✅ Target: 193.640 (liquidity sweep) This setup gives you a tight stop and a wide target — just how SMC likes it. 🎯 Execution Tip: Wait for: Rejection wick inside OB Bearish engulfing confirmation BOS on lower timeframe before entering Partial TP at mid-FVG or 194.200. Let the rest run. 📎 Confluences: ✅ ChoCh ✅ Bearish OB ✅ Rejection from premium pricing ✅ Clear inducement above Strong High ✅ Weak low as draw-on-liquidity ⚠️ Risk Reminder: Don’t front-run the OB. Let price come to you. Watch how Smart Money manipulates before you execute. Confirmation > prediction. 🔚 Summary: GBPJPY is set for a bearish redistribution move. The structure shift, clean OB, and weak low target all scream “trap above, raid below.” You’re either trading with Smart Money… or you’re the liquidity. 💬 Drop “🎯” if you’re targeting the same liquidity level. 📉 Follow @ChartNinjas88 for more deadly-accurate setups. 🚨 Tag a friend who keeps buying into strong highs 😅
Short
by ChartNinjas88
GBPJPY DAILY ANALYSIS $$$OANDA:GBPJPY 1H : Bullish BOS + OB + IMB 15m : Bearish MSS + OB + IMB EXPECTION : The price is currently inside the 15-minute zone and if it confirms, I will definitely share it with you in private. Don't forget to follow and like. 1: The price will fall from here. With confirmation, of course, it is more likely because there is a gap at the bottom and the gap must be filled, but enter the sale with low risk because the trend is bullish in higher time frames. 2: If the 15-minute zone breaks and becomes bullish, we will wait for the price to retest for a buy trade.
by aryaaparsii
GBPJPY SHORT FORECAST Q2 W20 D13 Y25GBPJPY SHORT FORECAST Q2 W20 D13 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Weekly order block rejection ✅Daily order block rejection ✅Intraday 15' order blocks ✅Gap fill 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
GBPUSD - SHORTI'm currently holding a bearish bias on GBP/JPY, anticipating a short-term correction after recent overbought conditions. Price action shows signs of exhaustion, and I'm expecting a move downward to fill the Fair Value Gaps (FVG) left behind during the previous bullish impulse. Trade Rationale: Overbought Conditions: After a strong upside move, price has reached a zone where buyers are losing momentum, hinting at a potential reversal or pullback. Imbalance/FVG Zones: Clear inefficiencies exist below current price levels, and I expect the market to retrace to fill these imbalances as part of its natural rebalancing. Structure & Supply: The market is showing reaction near a significant supply zone, which could act as the catalyst for bearish continuation. Target Zones: TP1: First demand zone where minor support may form — partials can be taken here. TP2: Deeper demand zone aligned with previous consolidation — a high-probability area for price to react and potentially reverse or consolidate again. Risk Management: Stops are placed just above recent highs, invalidating the idea if the market breaks structure and continues bullish. The setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio aligned with smart money concepts like imbalance fills and demand/supply reactions. 📉 Plan: Waiting for clear bearish confirmation (e.g., lower timeframe break of structure) before fully committing to the short position.
Short
by Forextify
GBP/JPY Fibo ResistanceGBP/JPY has been on a run with more than 1,000 pips gained on the pair from the April 9th low around the 185.00 handle. There's been a few different clean setups, as well, such as the ascending triangle when the 190.00 level was holding as resistance, and then support. The BoJ rate decision helped to prod JPY weakness and then there's been widespread continuation of risk-on so far to start this week. There's also some important context for the bullish continuation theme given this week's early rally... The long-term gap from back in 2008 continues to carry weight and we saw that last week as the bottom of that gap at 193.61 held as resistance. The top of that gap sits at 198.08 and this was resistance when it was last in-play on January 7th. At this point there's also Fibonacci resistance at 195.66 coming in to hold the highs, and this sets the stage for a higher-low at either 195.00 or 193.61. A show of support there opens the door for bullish continuation, and the top of that gap would be an ideal area for resistance to show at or around 198.08. Also of interest is a shorter-term Fibonacci level at 197.41 which is confluent with the psychological level of 197.50. - js
by FOREXcom
GBP JPY SELL SET UP🔥 GBPJPY Sell Setup – Clean & Calculated 🔥 Here’s the play on GBPJPY 👇 🧠 Working off key resistance zones + multiple reaction points ⚠️ Trigger: A weak high lining up perfectly with validated resistance 🎯 Plan: 3 Entries: Top, Mid & Bottom of the zone Targeting the 2H Bullish Order Block for the exit Simple structure. Solid logic. No overcomplication. ⚖️ Risk Profile: Fully managed Starting with a clean 4:1 R:R High probability setup with a smart edge Let’s see how price respects the zone — discipline over emotion every time. 🧘‍♂️ 💬 Chart coming next. Drop your thoughts or ask questions in the group! #GBPJPY #ForexTrading #SmartMoneyConcepts #OrderBlocks #PriceAction #SellSetup #RiskReward #FundedTrader #TradingCommunity #LearnToTrade
Short
by PassivePips
1
Price ready to break up and out of the year W Pattern to 205.66GBP/JPY seems to be one of the favourite Forex pairs when it comes to breakouts in 2025. It's taken 5 MONTHS for a breakout, which we have only gotten as of TODAY. THere are a number of reasons for the upside and the upside to come including: 📉 Reduced Safe-Haven Demand for Yen Improved U.S.-China trade relations have lessened global economic uncertainties, diminishing the appeal of the Japanese Yen as a safe-haven asset. 🔄 Widening UK-Japan Yield Differential The divergence in monetary policies, with the UK maintaining higher interest rates compared to Japan's accommodative stance, has increased the yield differential, attracting investors to the Pound. And let's look at the technicals which are LEADING the analysis. W Formation Price>20 and 200MA Target 205.66 Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by Timonrosso