Pound-yen’s uptrend still seems to be activeCompared to cable, the pound’s performance against the yen in the third quarter so far has been much better. The Bank of Japan’s governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated recently that any upcoming further rate hikes would be gradual and according to economic conditions. ¥205, corresponding to about ¥160 for dollar-yen, might be the area of further governmental intervention, but that’s not likely to be in view for GBPJPY for a while yet.
¥195 was an important resistance and technical reference in late September and for much of last month and seems likely to continue as a key area. This coincides with the value area between the 50 SMA from Bands and the 100 SMA. Now that volume has dropped off somewhat compared to earlier in November and ATR isn’t rising strongly, it’d be possible to see a pause for a few days as participants digest upcoming data. It’s not clear yet how strong the 50 SMA is as a potential dynamic support.
The current situation favours the carry trade quite strongly since the differential is 4.5%, which seems quite unlikely to change drastically within the next several months at least. The next significant move up if it occurs probably depends on the return of higher volume, which could be in the middle of December around the British job report and the BoE’s meeting.
