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GBPJPY trade ideas

GBP/JPY Outlook (21 October 2024): Key Price Levels. Harmonic Pattern Structure The chart seems to display a Gartley harmonic pattern. This can be seen through the labeled points X, A, B, C, D, which denote a classic five-point pattern used to predict potential reversals. The retracement levels (like 0.618 and 0.786) shown between these points suggest that price action is expected to respect key Fibonacci ratios. For example, point D typically marks the reversal zone in harmonic patterns, where a trend reversal is expected after a harmonic completion. Breakdown of the Pattern: X to A: This appears to be the initial impulse move down. A to B: The corrective upward move which retraces about 0.586 of XA. B to C: A downward move that retraces part of AB (point C aligns with a strong price level). C to D: An expected upward move towards D, likely completing the harmonic formation. The completion of point D often indicates a potential reversal or new trend, and the trader would expect bearish movement from D. 2. Market Structure and Break of Structure (BOS) There is an internal BOS (Break of Structure) marked on the chart, signifying a potential shift in market dynamics. This is a key signal in market structure analysis, suggesting that the price has broken a previous high or low (in this case, a high), indicating a trend change. This BOS internal (H) indicates that the market might have switched to a bullish phase. 3. Volume Profile and Point of Control (POC) Volume profile analysis appears on the chart, showing where the majority of trading volume has occurred. The POC (Point of Control) at the 194.191 level indicates that this price level has attracted the highest traded volume in the past sessions. The volume profile helps traders understand where price is likely to consolidate or reverse based on historical trading activity. 4. Projected Elliott Wave Count The chart also uses Elliott Wave Theory principles, particularly to project the ongoing and upcoming price waves. The wave count suggests that the current price action might be in the midst of Wave 2 of a larger bullish impulse. After the completion of Wave 2, Wave 3 (which is often the strongest and most impulsive wave) is expected to begin. The invalidity level for the Elliott Wave structure is marked at 192.462. This means if price drops below this level, the current wave count becomes invalid, and a reassessment is needed. 5. Fibonacci Retracement Levels Fibonacci retracements are marked to assess potential retracement levels, notably 0.618 and 0.786. These levels are typically considered areas where price could retrace before continuing in the direction of the main trend. Currently, Wave A is seen retracing to 0.618 at 194.587, and further potential retracement could be to 0.786 at 194.191 before an upward move. 6. Weekly Expectation and Timing (Monday to Friday Overview) The red vertical lines indicate the transition between trading days from Monday to Friday, with key expectations for the week ahead: A bullish start is projected early in the week (Monday-Tuesday), with potential completion of Wave D around midweek. A corrective structure or internal pullback is expected around Wednesday. A new bullish leg is anticipated towards the end of the week (Thursday-Friday) to close the week on a higher note, according to the chart's projected path. The visualized market structure suggests a corrective move down on Tuesday (T) towards the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, after which a bullish movement is anticipated to begin as the next leg up (potentially a continuation of Wave 3). The weekly close (denoted as W CLOSE) is expected to be higher than current levels. 7. Key Support and Resistance Levels 195.270 is highlighted as a potential short-term resistance level, while 194.191 acts as a significant support level. This confluence of technical indicators shows potential areas where price might find resistance (on the upside) and support (on the downside). The higher resistance zone is shown near 196.043, where a current weak high might result in further resistance as price tries to break above. 8. Summary of Market Outlook Short-term (Early Week): Bearish retracement from the current price level towards 0.786 Fibonacci level, signaling the end of a corrective phase (C wave). Mid-to-Late Week: Bullish continuation expected following the pullback, forming a new upward leg likely to complete Wave 3 in the Elliott Wave structure. End-of-Week Close: Potential bullish close above 195.270, possibly challenging the 196.043 level before a pullback.
Long
by spacedevil
2
GBP/JPY 144M chart with an analysis of the key levels1. Elliott Wave Analysis and Structure The chart appears to be tracking a complex Elliott Wave pattern with clear labeling of impulse and corrective waves. Wave III and IV are prominent on the chart, indicating that the current movement may be within a broader impulse wave structure, likely aiming towards completing Wave V at higher levels. Wave 1 Invalidation Level at 199.240: This level is crucial as any move below this would invalidate the current wave count, which expects price to rise in Wave V without dipping below Wave 1's territory. 2. Fibonacci Levels and Extensions Key Fibonacci Extensions: 3.618 Extension at 207.390: This is the highest extension marked, suggesting a potential overextended Wave V target. 2.618 Extension at 205.421: This level is marked for a diagonal Wave 5, providing a likely resistance level and a target for a possible reversal. 2.236 Extension at 203.952: Labeled as "Volume Divergence by Wave 5," this level indicates where volume divergence might emerge, signaling weakening momentum and a potential reversal. Retracement Levels: 0.272 (202.172) and 0.382 (201.240): These retracement levels provide support within the corrective structure of Wave IV. They mark areas where price could potentially consolidate before moving higher to complete Wave V. 0.618 (199.240): This level is noted as a critical support level. It also serves as the Wave 1 invalidation point, reinforcing its importance as a support that should hold if the bullish wave count remains valid. 3. Volume Divergence and Inducement Zones Volume Divergence by Wave 5 (at 206.888): Located near a significant Fibonacci extension, this indicates that although price may continue higher, a reduction in volume could hint at a weakening bullish momentum. Inducement Zone (2.618 at 204.375 for Wave 3): This inducement area acts as a potential target for Wave 3, where traders might look for an initial breakout or reaction as it aligns with a higher extension level. Conformation Zone at 2.236 (203.224): Marked as a confirmation area for Wave 1-5, suggesting that this could act as a validation zone for continued bullish movement if price holds above it. 4. Invalidation Levels Wave 2-B Invalidation: An invalidation level is noted around the bottom of the corrective phase, signifying that any drop below this would invalidate the expected bullish move in Wave V. Wave 4 Invalidation: The corrective Wave IV must not extend too low (below the noted retracement levels), or else the structure may shift into a deeper correction rather than maintaining the bullish outlook. 5. Strategic Price Levels Resistance Levels: 206.889: This is noted as the invalidation extension above Wave 5, marking a potential high where price might encounter resistance if this wave structure remains intact. 205.421 (Diagonal Wave 5 Target): As a common extension level, this serves as a natural target for price to complete the wave. Support Levels: 200.500 - 201.240 Range: This range includes retracement levels for Wave IV and is a key support area to maintain the bullish wave count. 199.240: Critical as the must-not-pass level for Wave 1. A breach here would invalidate the wave structure. 6. Channel and Trendline Analysis Ascending Trendline Support: An orange trendline runs diagonally, acting as a support line for the ongoing uptrend. This line aligns with retracement levels, suggesting that if price touches or respects this trendline, it could provide a buying opportunity within the context of the bullish structure. Diagonal Channel in Purple: The price movement within this channel helps in tracking the upward progress of Wave III to Wave V, with each retracement bouncing within the channel limits. 7. Projected Path and Trading Implications Primary Pathway: The chart anticipates that price will reach the 2.618 (204.375) and possibly 3.618 (207.390) extensions for Wave V. A break of these levels with volume divergence would be a signal for potential exhaustion. Wave IV Consolidation: Should Wave IV continue, traders may look to buy on dips near the 0.382 (201.240) or higher as long as the price remains above 199.240. Exit/Profit-Taking Zones: Traders may consider taking profits near 204.375 or 206.888 based on resistance levels, especially if volume divergence becomes apparent. Summary of Key Takeaways Upside Targets: The key upside targets are the 2.236 extension (203.952), 2.618 extension (205.421), and the maximum extension at 207.390. Critical Supports: Supports at 201.240 (0.382 retracement) and 199.240 (Wave 1 invalidation) are key for maintaining the bullish outlook. Volume Divergence: Potential volume divergence near the higher extensions could signal a weakening trend, marking a potential reversal or consolidation phase for GBP/JPY.
Long
by spacedevil
Dont Trade This #1 Mistake in The Opposite DirectionI am from talking to a brother of mine who seems so sad because he is not happy with his wife... I was trying to tell him that even though he is not in a happy marriage. One day things will reverse for the better to favour him as a man Reversals are part of life Look at his chart CAPITALCOM:GBPJPY It's a reversal and here is why... Trading this forex pair is going to be challenging but its worth the squeeze - One thing I have noticed is that based on candlestick patterns The price action looks like it coming from a bullish harami.. last week Then it hits an evening star at the resistance This evening star is the bear trap Which means it looks like the price will drop but this price won't drop It will keep going higher and higher also its following the rocket booster strategy. Which has 3 steps in order to learn this strategy check out the references below. Rocket boost this content to learn more. Disclaimer : Trading is risky you will lose money whether you like it or not. Please learn risk management and profit-taking strategies.
Long
by lubosi
3
Pound-yen’s uptrend still seems to be activeCompared to cable, the pound’s performance against the yen in the third quarter so far has been much better. The Bank of Japan’s governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated recently that any upcoming further rate hikes would be gradual and according to economic conditions. ¥205, corresponding to about ¥160 for dollar-yen, might be the area of further governmental intervention, but that’s not likely to be in view for GBPJPY for a while yet. ¥195 was an important resistance and technical reference in late September and for much of last month and seems likely to continue as a key area. This coincides with the value area between the 50 SMA from Bands and the 100 SMA. Now that volume has dropped off somewhat compared to earlier in November and ATR isn’t rising strongly, it’d be possible to see a pause for a few days as participants digest upcoming data. It’s not clear yet how strong the 50 SMA is as a potential dynamic support. The current situation favours the carry trade quite strongly since the differential is 4.5%, which seems quite unlikely to change drastically within the next several months at least. The next significant move up if it occurs probably depends on the return of higher volume, which could be in the middle of December around the British job report and the BoE’s meeting. This is my personal opinion which does not represent the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
by Michael_Stark_Exness
LOOKING TO SHORT GBP/JPYGBP/JPY 1H - As you can see price has traded us into a FVG and rejected well to the downside, this is giving us the suggestion that price may be looking to trade lower now. In order for us to deem a valid entry I want to see price trade us up and into the Supply Zone I have gone ahead and marked out above, this will allow us to get involved with a more refined entry as well. By price trade up and into this, rejecting to the downside and providing us with a fractal BOS, it tells us that the correction trading us up initially has come to an end and the new impulsive wave trading us lower is now ready to take place. I will set an alert just underneath the area of interest, once price trades up and into this zone I will wait patiently for the opening of a trade, as soon as we have the BOS this is when I will be looking to get involved, its important we have as much confirmation as possible.
Short
by Lukegforex
GBPJPY is in the Down TrendHello Traders In This Chart GBPJPY HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today GBPJPY analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (GBPJPY market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on GBPJPY Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Long
by ForexMasters2000