Remember, our goal in the markets is not to solve puzzles, but to follow a system and extract value. This is the only reason we trade. If our system signals a trade, we should not be afraid to act on it. If we don’t yet have a system, we must develop one that includes: • Take profit levels • Stop-loss placements • Clear analysis criteria
On Building a System
Your trading system doesn’t need to be overly complicated. What matters is consistency and the ability to execute it without deviation.
Here’s an important truth: • If, after a year or more of trading, you’ve maintained a system and achieved a win rate lower than 50%, this may indicate an edge. • Why? Because you are systematically wrong—not randomly wrong—which means your process is skewed in a predictable way. • An edge is defined as the ability to more often than random predict an outcome, even if it’s predicting incorrect outcomes.
However, most retail traders face a different issue: • Inconsistency due to abandoning their system after a string of losses. • Mathematically, a system with a 50% or higher win rate can still experience 10+ consecutive losses. This is a guaranteed possibility, not just a probability, over a long enough timeline.
The takeaway? Sticking to your system, even during a losing streak, is crucial for long-term success.
GBPJPY Trade Setup
We now have a compelling asymmetric risk-to-reward opportunity on GBPJPY: • Entry: Current price level • Stop Loss: 189.6 • Take Profit: 195 • Risk-to-Reward: 3:1
Why This Setup Works • With a 3:1 risk-to-reward ratio, you only need a win rate of 40% to remain profitable. • The current setup aligns with a systematic approach, providing both a clearly defined stop loss and a target that balances risk and reward.
Final Thoughts
Trading success isn’t about avoiding losses—it’s about following your system with discipline, even when losses occur. Build a system, trust it, and remember that consistency over time, not perfection, is what creates success in the markets. Stay focused, patient, and systematic!
GBPJPY My bias for pretty much all JPY pairs with the major decision est. of a .25 basis hike later in the week not seen since the 2008 financial crisis for JPY.