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British Pound / Japanese Yen forum
*2/2 Fundamental Analysis & USD News Impact*
Upcoming USD Events (May 2025)
May 10: US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) – Strong data may boost USD, pressuring GBPJPY.
May 12: UK GDP Data – Weak figures could weaken GBP, amplifying JPY strength.
GBPJPY is sensitive to both USD strength (via JPY safe-haven flows) and UK economic data.
🔑 Key Takeaways (Summary)
✅ Support/Resistance:
Daily: 190.500 (S) | 192.400 (R)
4H: 191.200 (S) | 192.000 (R)
✅ EMA Levels:
Daily: 50EMA 190.800 | 200EMA 187.200
4H: 50EMA 191.200 | 200EMA 189.900
✅ Fibonacci Key Level: 192.400 (0.618 retracement)
✅ Pivots:
Weekly: PP 190.900 | R1 192.600
Daily: PP 191.500 | R1 192.300
✅ Fundamental Watch: US NFP (May 10) & UK GDP (May 12).
📌 Final Thoughts
GBPJPY’s bullish structure holds above 190.500, but traders should monitor 192.400 resistance and USD/JPY correlation. A break above 192.400 may target 193.060, while failure to hold 190.500 could revisit 189.200.
*1/2 GBPJPY Daily Market Analysis—May 8, 2025*
📊 Market Overview
As of May 8, 2025, GBPJPY trades at 191.769, testing key resistance levels after a rebound from the swing low of 188.800. This analysis covers daily and 4-hour timeframe insights using Fibonacci retracements, EMAs, RSI divergence, order blocks, and MACD, alongside fundamental drivers like upcoming USD news.
📉 Technical Analysis
1. Support & Resistance Levels
Daily Timeframe
Support:
Immediate: 190.500 (order block confluence)
Major: 189.200 (weekly pivot zone)
Resistance:
Immediate: 192.400 (Fibonacci 0.618 level)
Key: 193.060 (swing high)
4-Hour Timeframe
Support: 191.200 (EMA 50 dynamic level)
Resistance: 192.000 (liquidity pool)
2. Fibonacci Retracement Levels (Swing High: 193.060 | Low: 188.800)
0.236: 189.850
0.382: 190.620
0.5: 191.430
0.618: 192.400 (critical reversal zone)
0.786: 193.800
Price near 0.5 Fib suggests consolidation; break above 192.400 may target 193.060.
3. Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)
Daily Timeframe
EMA 50: 190.800
EMA 100: 189.500
EMA 200: 187.200
EMA 400: 185.000
Price above all EMAs confirms bullish bias.
4-Hour Timeframe
EMA 50: 191.200
EMA 100: 190.600
EMA 200: 189.900
EMA 400: 188.400
4H EMAs acting as dynamic support.
4. RSI Divergence (Daily & 4H)
Daily RSI: 58 (neutral, no divergence)
4H RSI: 52 (bullish if holds above 50)
Watch for bearish divergence if RSI fails to break 60 on upward moves.
5. Order Blocks & Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
Demand Zone: 190.500–191.000 (daily order block)
Supply Zone: 192.400–193.060 (liquidity grab area)
Break above 192.400 could trigger stop-losses toward 193.060.
6. MACD Analysis
Daily MACD: Bullish but losing momentum.
4H MACD: Neutral, awaiting crossover confirmation.
📅 Pivot Levels
Weekly Pivots
PP (Pivot Point): 190.900
R1: 192.600
S1: 189.200
Daily Pivots
PP: 191.500
R1: 192.300
S1: 190.700
I've been waiting for this to hit my TP at 193.137, but I have just decided to close the trade at 50 pips less. Still made a decent amount. I just might be done for the week.
Trade safely, everyone.
Trade safely, everyone.