20.06.19 GBPMXN OutlookGBP is currently in a high value buy zone.
Potential to retest blue circle area for more long positions
GBPMXN trade ideas
inverted SHSinverted head and shoulder spotted on gbpmxn, looking to go long on this very one if it breaks the present resitance
GBPMXN - early next weekGBPMXN is an exotic pair that is very high risk - but also very rewarding if you find the right entry point and are prepared to lose big time.
Losing? Big time? Ooops - nobody want so hear about that! Right? LOL.
I was taken out for a major loss a couple months ago, as I did not appreciate how violent this pair is. But.. but I've learned a lot in the last two months. This time around I'm more controlled and more disciplined.
So, early next week I'll decide what I do. Gonna study this one more over the weekend.
This is not a 'revenge' trade - if I get involved. I don't do revenge. That's novice stuff.
I may well stay out.
Hogs and pesosIn this screencast I focus on 'lean hogs' and the Mexican Peso v Sterling. The core issue is the ranging pattern on the daily time frame (over the periods I'm looking at).
In general these two instruments are highly volatile and risky. However, the pattern creates expectations (not predictions).
In other posts I pointed out that certain instruments have a certain personality to them. They behave differently in their volatility compared to others.
One other that I did not put in the video is CADNOK on the daily or weekly time frame.
I'm not saying that everybody should trade these instruments. They are certainly not for everybody because the sort of stop losses required on entering on these are very high indeed. So are the potential gains.
Extreme stalking, timing and patience are required with these ultra-volatile charts.
Success in the markets also involves finding and exploiting instruments that have their own particular patterns.
Go forth and explore. :) :)
GBP/MXN going downReversal on GBP/MXN. looks like its hit the peak of its long term sideways move. I have the top and bottom placed with Fibonacci retracing around the 26.5 on the first level down.
Prediction is wrong.'Prediction' is a word commonly seen on Tradingview and other places. Quite often people go, " Nice prediction! " when price moves in favour of some setup that was previously shared - and delivers profits. This use of the word or concept of prediction is wrong for a number of logical reasons.
Not because I say that B will follow A, and B happens means I've predicted anything. I could also predict that the sun will rise in the East tomorrow or next year, but I doubt anybody would see value in that. I could 'predict' that if you drop an ordinary glass tumbler on a hard concrete-floor, that it would shatter. Nothing great in that either. Why? Because everybody knows about those situations. They know the probability in advance. In addition, 'value' is important in what people call prediction. Few are impressed by meaningless so-called 'predictions'.
There is phenomenon of 'adventitious reinforcement' that affects many traders (unknowingly). For more on that see Predictable Peckers and similar on the net. That's not just about pigeons. People too can come to believe that their actions 'predict' what happens next, and then they behave or act in certain ways. Any rewarding outcome can be associated with a previous action and developed into a pattern. So - in trading, the seeming correct prediction reinforces a belief that the outcome was due to something in the setup that brought success. These beliefs are almost never statistically analysed and in any case, traders are not interested - which is very sad.
I removed 'prediction' from my lexicon when trading. In my analyses, I focus on probabilities. Yes I use technical analysis and chart patterns. In other situations, I simply assess the trend for time momentum and price momentum , then estimate probabilities. I know that for any estimate I make which may be as low as 51% there is a reverse probability of 49%. If 60% then the reverse is 40% and so on.
There is no surprise or reinforcement when my entry position is successful and delivers rewards. I predicted nothing. All I did was get the probability right on those occasions.
Especially in trend-following trades the estimate of probable direction is particularly important. About 3 years ago I missed a trend following trade that was shown live because I couldn't believe how far it might go. That trade delivered a staggering 600 points. My question to the expert was, " How did you know it would go so far? " (as if he predicted it). I thought he knew the future. He just explained that he followed his strategy. But he didn't really answer the question. With more experience, I now know that he predicted nothing, for the simple reason that he was just following.
Trades with predefined targets create expectations and are more prone to leading traders to a belief that they can predict. The harsh reality is that nobody owns the future and can predict anything. All humans can do is estimate probabilities.
The torture of equity gainsI'm exploring the psychological torture of managing equity gains - mostly in trend-following. I shall not go into methods. I wish to distinguish trend-following from trend-continuation trading. Those who do not know the difference can read up on the net, or start here .
At the outset traders will have watched their positions move into much positive equity in a trend-following trade, and would have felt a strong urge to 'take the money'. They may not have felt fear of losing out, or even anxiety - though the urge could well be driven by unconscious emotional factors. In all this I'm considering long positions for easy understanding.
Trend-following is where the big money. However it is more challenging as there are no predefined targets, though there are exit events or criteria (in any strategy). In some markets that are pretty volatile one has to be prepared to give back as much as 50-60% at a moment in time, in order to milk a trend that could realise a 500-1000% gain.
I'm giving some of my own thoughts and feelings - from when I was much younger in this business. So for example I'm watching say the equivalent of $1200 in equity on a position. Something inside is driving me to take the money. But cognitively I know this is not any part of my strategy or method. I know in advance that I can expect that equity to fall off and stay with my chosen trend envelope. It's a real battle and it's painful (torture).
In other words 'feelings' of some sort are trying to direct my mind to do what it shouldn't. On reflection over many of those situations, where I've stupidly taken the money and not followed by trend indicator, I came to realise that my methodology was sound. When I did take the money I might have been relieved when the price fell back as it would but stayed within trend parameters. That then brings relief in the form of self-talk such as " Yes - it's a good thing I took the money ." But then comes another problem of trying to re-enter the trend. In attempting to do so, there is niggling anxiety about losing what I've got and wrestling with fear of missing out (at the same time). So, on some of those occasions 'happy' with my stash I didn't re-enter. Then - lo and behold the market takes off, follows the trend from my very first assessment - and I feel pretty stupid that I've missed out on 300% more over say 4 days. More torture!
I theorise that some of the above behaviour is driven at least in part by the most subtle of human instincts - that of survival . We have been programmed by nature to 'take the food or water' when we see it, as that's our survival right there. That taking of gains is probably hard-wired into all of us. Nature didn't envisage that we'd want to cope with trading environments. Money also translates into 'food', other basic needs and comforts - it's the very reason why we're in this business.
As I think about it more I recognise that quite a few of the enemies are derived from the survival instinct.
All of trading is a battle in the mind and not nearly so much about battling with markets. Now with the benefit of hindsight I take 'technical analysis' and other types to be just 'tools'. The outcome of using those tools depends far more on skill in manage my mind (aka self-management).
It may be that it's never a battle one can 'finally win'. All I can do is to catch impulses that might drive me to stray outside of my methodology, and overcome them. This sounds simple but it's not easy. It takes time and much practice.
From what I see out there, most traders talk about their successes and probabilities for gains in the market. Sharing of the really more important stuff in the realm of the psychological is uncommon. It would be nice if new traders especially, can share stories that are resemble any of the above.
Weekly breakout could be exploited GBPMXN (weekly) chart is showing some interesting features, which lead me to be long on lower time frames.
There is some sort of triangle, wedge, or pennant following breakout.
The pattern is holding above a level of support (at this time).
Based on experience, this creates a probability for further moves north.
The Aroon is showing that the bulls are still in control, creating a probability for greater time-momentum .
The above does not mean it cannot break down catastrophically. Every probability in one direction also leaves a probability for the opposite direction . A stop-loss is what limits loss if price moves against my favoured direction.
I do not know what the future will bring - as I have no crystal ball. All I can do is take a controlled acceptable risk. I'm long on a daily time frame with this (which is not advice to others).
GBPMXN is one of those that is very wild and often disobeys some of the rules of technical analysis. So extreme caution is required.
Self-discipline - what's that?Whilst I am on a roll, I'm pushing out loads of questions and thoughts that have occupied me for the last two years. All this is well ' Beyond Technical Analysis '!
In too many trading/training videos out there, I've heard the words 'discipline' and 'self-discipline'. These are so commonly used words that many take their meaning for granted, or as something very elementary. I know - because I was one of those people who thought I knew what the words meant.
However, there is also a thing called self-deception which works against self-discipline. Self-deception at its heart, is the ability of the mind to justify anything! Quite simply - it's dangerous.
The Collins Dictionary defines self-discipline as, " controlling of oneself or one's desires, actions, habits ... .. the act of disciplining or power to discipline one's own feelings, desires... with the intention of improving oneself. " It's easier now to see how this connects to trading environments.
A sound trader needs a lot of personal self-control over actions, habits, feelings and desires. I add 'thinking processes'. Certainly there must be a routine that improves one abilities, as the markets are not static. Their behaviour changes so one needs to improve to match those changes.
The obvious question for many (especially new traders) is, " How do I become more disciplined? " I'm afraid there is no magic formula that I can prescribe. I can only share a few personal experiences that drove me to become more disciplined.
It's like a weird sandwich:
A firm and unshakeable desire to make myself consistently profitable.
Pain i.e. painful mistakes.
Non-acceptance that if others could do it, I couldn't.
Pain drives people - let's not debate that. By pain I include from the worse kinds of suffering to the more subtle kinds. One can include things like frustration, anger and disappointment. Pain stood like a distasteful filling between the two sides of my sandwich. I just couldn't ignore it. If I wanted to make this thing right I had to fix the pain; all sources of it.
I was/am my own pain. My enemies arise from within me to cause me pain. My mind plays tricks on me in trading environments. To deal with the sources of pain I had to deal with my own mind, else just give up. I'm no quitter! So whilst I do not claim near-perfect discipline now, I have been addressing the trickery of my own mind - those inner enemies - that thwart my thinking processes. After all, if I don't the whole sandwich (three bullet points above) become nothing - and I'd have to join the 90-odd percent of people who give up on trading in the first couple years.
Am I saying that pain is a necessary ingredient for everybody to reach a greater self-disciplined state? Well yes I am! In every walk of life people have to suffer some sort of discomfort in achieving their goals. If you wanted to become a top-rated lawyer, you would have to suffer the 'pain' of years of study, and the trauma of being beaten in court rooms. If you want to get to the North Pole on foot, that involves pain and personal sacrifice. But nobody gets to the North Pole alive, with poor discipline. I shan't go on to mention other areas where people suffer extreme discomfort in order to achieve their goals.
If there are take away points to consider, traders should to find out what they are about and anchor themselves on what they want and what they won't have. Then, systematically whittle away at all obstacles by robust self-refection. It takes time - and bargain for pain! Do the time - take the pain. Don't blow up a live account.
Specialising in certain instruments or markets?Over the years I've traded many markets e.g. commodities, metals, cryptos, forex and so on. For new traders the word 'instrument' means a particular chart in a market segment. So the US30 (Wall Street) would be one instrument under 'Indices'.
What I have observed is that certain instruments behave very differently to others on the same time frame. It's difficult to describe this in words on a page but I will attempt. Some instruments are more highly volatile, random, and seem to 'disobey' moving averages - whilst erratically 'obeying' some basic concepts such as trend lines, fibonaccis, support and resistance levels. But they're generally disobedient of any of the usual tools we may use.
GBPMXN, CADNOK, AUDJPY - are some of these. In general the so-called exotic pairs in forex 'do their own thing'. The instruments that follow oil prices are similar in the sort of disruptive behaviour. Similar for high powered shares like Amazon and Ulta. RSIs mean nothing to them. When the move they really move.
Some say this is just volatility. For sure it is.
But in studying many erratic instruments over a long time, I've come to appreciate that they have a kind of personality . The more I observe these charts the randomness of their behaviour becomes almost predictable in their individual patterns (though I do not predict anything in my trading).
GBPMXN and USDZAR for example fascinate me. There are many surprises and dangers with these. There are much larger losses and profits to be made though.
There are some instruments that travel for miles when they get moving on daily time frames.
Getting close to these instruments can bring advantages. I've heard of some traders trading only one instrument like the S&P500. They do nothing else and they say the make all their profits that way. There is a sort of common sense in that i.e. if they become experts at assessing movements of price in one instrument then they are at an advantage.
I reckon that it's like any other aspect of life, where some people get into a narrow area of expertise and do it very well. I once met a man who was a specialist at sharpening saws. That's all he did for 30 years. He did his job very well and was highly valued. I've read about some folk who only build one particular kind of engine in one model of car.
So what I'm getting at, is that sometimes instead of being a 'jack of all instruments', it may be advantageous to specialise in only a small handful or only one - and trading that those or that one very well. By analogy again, instead of hunting 10 different kinds of animals one can learn the behavioural characteristics of one or two and be good at hunting just those.
Perhaps I could call this kind of trading 'narrow band trading'.
I'm hoping that other Tradingview members can share their experiences or ideas on the above. Best wishes.
Courses, horses - or the mind?If you’re reading this looking just for the best course to attend, you may be disappointed. I go deeper than the simple issue of 'which courses' or 'what course is best'. The sharing of my personal experience may be of value to new traders but also for more seasoned traders.
INTRODUCTION
I’m sharing a summary of my experiences over the last 4 years, so that others can see something more about ‘courses’ – and what courses can never give you.
I am nobody known or big in the trading world. I do not offer advice in this or any other post. I do not train anybody. I do not seek anybody's money for any service. I do not require recognition. Take all of what’s written here as 'what I've learned' and cautiously apply the parts of it that you find of any value. Where I use words like ‘you’ and ‘yours’, this is my self-talk as if I’m advising myself all over again. I do this all the time. You're not mad if you're doing self-talk. It is an important thing to do.
I started off with binary options and lost a fair amount of money. I watched numerous videos on YouTube about how to trade these, with numerous so-called successful strategies. In my searches I came across Spreadbetting, and did the same. More money lost. I then signed up with various trainers and spent more money there. More losses. I'm to blame I was led to understand because I didn't follow the rules. That's true to some extent - but something fundamental was missing. Why could I not follow the rules of some strategy invented by others? It's about why this post is in the Trading Psychology section of Tradingview.
I followed various gurus on websites, paid more money and still no success. Most of these gurus had state of the art audio-visual equipment and studios. They usually appeared with large microphones, conspicuous and 'in the face'. Is that really necessary? Some will say it’s all about better sound quality.
Then I got into ‘trading diaries’ and other things people out there said I should do. Still major problems.
So, what was missing? To put it in a nutshell the problem was grappling with my personal psychology . This is about the way I work - how my mind functions in relation to risk, which would be different to everybody else. Psychologists may be able to tell you a bit about how minds in general work. They cannot tell you exactly how ‘your mind’ works.
GURUS?
Most of the gurus I came across would mention psychology several times but never get to the heart of it. Naturally they're not psychotherapists, so they can't tell me how to sort myself out. Most trainers focused on 'discipline' which is fine, but they couldn't tell me how to become disciplined. What? - am I just supposed to pull myself together and follow a script? Some would say 'yes'. But this is not how the human being operates. If everybody could just pull themselves together and follow a trading plan and a set of rules, then everybody would be rich. Come on - we all know that's silly.
... truncated .
This post became so long, that it cannot fit on Tradingview. It is accessible here where I go on to explore:
GURUS?
RECOGNITION
METHODOLOGY AND STRATEGY
MIND AND PSYCHOLOGY
PATTERN REWRITING
IF I COULD TURN BACK TIME
I do apologise, and hope Tradingview allows this post to remain.
GBPMXN buy setup.Hi traders,
Keep an eye on this one. Price looks like it about to break structure and go to highs. I think it will break and then bounce on structure before upside.
Best regards,
Tom_Killick
GBPMXN Weekly and Daily - important levelsPrice on GBPMXN is at a possible band of horizontal support. But at least it is an important structure level.
Price has also broken the 200 EMA on the weekly chart. However, it has recovered in the in recent months from such a level.
Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation or encouragement to take a position, or invest any money. GBPMXN makes both millionaires (the minority) and paupers (the majority) of traders. No liability accepted for any losses suffered. Paper trading accounts are recommended for those who wish to experiment.
