GBP/NZD Hits Highest Level Since 2016: Is a Move Down Ahead?The GBP/NZD is currently testing its highest price in recent years, nearing the significant resistance level of 2.1900. This area has served as a notable barrier since 2016 and often sees increased selling interest. The price action in this zone, combined with the emergence of a harmonic pattern, suggests a potential reversal or correction. Furthermore, recent price movements, particularly the candles from October 30 and 31 breaking below the low of October 29, indicate rising bearish momentum, reinforcing the possibility of selling pressure in the near term.
Bat Harmonic Pattern Structure
A Bat harmonic pattern is developing in the GBP/NZD chart, providing additional reversal signals near historical resistance:
Point X: The starting point of the move, at a previous significant high.
Point A: The bottom of the initial correction.
Point B: The price retracement to the 38.2% level of the XA extension.
Point C: The second correction reaching 88.2% of the AB move.
Point D (Potential Reversal Zone): Near 2.1847, aligning with the 88.6% level of the XA extension and the resistance at 2.1900, indicating an optimal area for potential sell opportunities.
The Bat pattern suggests a crucial resistance level where buyers might struggle, especially considering the proximity to historical highs.
Price Action Analysis and Sell Signals
Recent price action further highlights selling interest:
Selling Pressure at Highs: The October 30 and 31 candles broke below the October 29 low, signalling possible exhaustion of the bullish trend and indicating increased seller interest. This behaviour raises warning signals for a potential short-to-medium-term reversal.
Potential Move Down Ahead
Given the convergence of the harmonic pattern and historical resistance, a short strategy is advisable between 2.1800 and 2.1900. Here are critical points to consider for GBP/NZD:
Potential Sell Zone : The resistance between 2.1800 and 2.1900 represents a prime short zone, combining the D point of the Bat with historical resistance.
Primary Target : The support around 2.1400 corresponds to the B region of the Bat formation, typically the first target when trading harmonic patterns.
Secondary Target : Should a breakout continue, the next significant support is near 2.1000, coinciding with the C level of the Bat formation.
Traders should remain cautious of any breaks above 2.1900, as this could indicate a breakout above a crucial resistance level on the daily chart.
Conclusion
The GBP/NZD pair is in a complex technical setup, presenting potential opportunities for short positions due to the confluence of the Bat harmonic pattern and the historical resistance at 2.1900. With signs of selling pressure evident in the recent price action, especially following the candles on October 30 and 31, traders should closely monitor this region as it may signal the onset of a correction.
Disclaimer:
74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK.
