GBP/USD sell H4 chart analysisThat’s a very well-structured breakdown— short setup on GBP/USD from 1.28000 down to 1.25500 and 1.22700 looks well thought out, especially in the context of a bearish trend.
Here’s a concise technical reinforcement and a couple of things to tighten your plan:
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Trade Overview
Pair: GBP/USD
Position: Short
Entry: 1.28000
TP1: 1.25500
TP2: 1.22700
Suggested SL: 1.28650–1.29000 (above recent swing high or resistance zone)
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Technical Breakdown
1. Price Action & Structure:
1.25500 has been a strong pivot zone historically—if it breaks cleanly, it could accelerate toward 1.22700.
Look for signs of lower highs and lower lows on the H4 and Daily charts for continuation.
2. Moving Averages:
A confirmed 50/200 MA death cross on H4 or Daily would give a strong bearish confirmation.
Price staying below the 50 EMA also supports short bias.
3. RSI / Momentum:
RSI < 50 = bearish.
RSI near 30: caution for potential short-term bounces. Look for divergence as a clue for exhaustion.
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Key Events to Watch
UK Data: Watch for GDP, Services PMI, and BoE tone. Dovish BoE could accelerate the drop.
US Data: Strong NFP or CPI could boost USD strength and help push toward your TPs.
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Bonus Tip – Scaling:
Consider partial profit at TP1 and adjust stop to breakeven for TP2.
Or use a trailing stop once TP1 hits to lock in profits if the move accelerates.
GBPUSD.1.MINI trade ideas
GBPUSD SELL 1.2908On the hourly chart, GBPUSD stabilized in the short term. Currently, we can pay attention to the upper 1.2908 area, which is a potential short position of the bearish bat pattern. At the same time, this position is in the previous supply area. If shorting near 1.2908, the downward target will look at the 1.2750-1.2800 area.
Seller has coming to GBPUSDThe daily timeframe already shows signs of sellers entering the market. On the 1-hour timeframe, the low is already sweep, indicating a potential trend change on the 1-hour timeframe. To follow the trend, the entry area is located in the supply zone on the 15-minute and 30-minute timeframes.
GBPUSD Breaks Key Support: Trump's Tariffs Trigger a Bigger DropGBPUSD Breaks Key Support: Trump's Tariffs Trigger a Bigger Drop
Since early March 2025, GBP/USD entered an accumulation phase, trading within a 145-pip range between 1.2870 and 1.3015. The first breakout attempt was bullish, but on April 3rd, a sharp sell-off occurred, triggered by Trump’s newly imposed tariffs.
GBP/USD has now broken below the 1.2870 support zone, a level where the price had held firm for a month. If the pair remains below 1.2870, the likelihood of a larger downward move increases.
Based on current data, GBP/USD might retest 1.2870 before continuing downward, but this is uncertain. The pair’s movement is highly dependent on Trump's tariffs, and any new statements or policy shifts could quickly change its direction
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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GBPUSD(20250409)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
The U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency reiterated that the specific tax rates for each country will be announced at 12:01 a.m. on April 9.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
1.2764
Support and resistance levels:
1.2862
1.2825
1.2802
1.2726
1.2702
1.2666
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 1.2802, consider buying, the first target price is 1.2825
If the price breaks through 1.2764, consider selling, the first target price is 1.2726
GBPUSD I may have entered too early.. But im not backing out yet!
Observations from the Data
Trend Confirmation via Moving Averages: Several key moving averages and trend indicators (EMA at 1.30829, DEMA, HT Trendline at 1.31043, KAMA, Linear Regression) are positioned well above the current market level of 1.28234. This indicates that, on an hourly basis, the longer-term trend remains bearish.
Directional Indicators: The directional movement figures are very telling. With PLUS_DI at about 4.97 and MINUS_DI at around 31.38, sellers clearly dominate the market. A low DI(+) against a high DI(–) reinforces that the overall bias is to the downside.
Momentum & Oscillators:
The RSI is extremely low at ~15, indicating an oversold condition. In isolation, this might hint at a potential short-term bounce.
However, other momentum indicators, such as the Chande Momentum Oscillator (-70.09) and a slightly negative MACD (-0.00185), suggest that the underlying bearish momentum has been strong.
Oscillators like Williams %R (at -89.21) further underscore that the market is deep into oversold territory.
Volatility Metrics: An ATR of 0.0043 and relatively low standard deviation indicate modest volatility, meaning your stop-loss and target levels can be measured with reasonable precision.
Context and Rationale
Overall Trend: The majority of your trend-following indicators (e.g., EMA, DEMA, HT Trendline, KAMA) are positioned higher, confirming a prevailing bearish bias. Even though the RSI shows an extreme oversold reading (around 15), in a strong downtrend like this, oversold conditions can simply trigger a temporary bounce rather than a reversal. My sell entry at 1.27752 aligns with staying in the trend.
Directional Pressure: With the MINUS_DI (31.38) greatly outweighing the PLUS_DI (4.97), the directional movement clearly favors sellers. My entry at 1.27752 positions me within this selling pressure, assuming the bounce to fail and the downtrend to resume.
Entry Timing: Instead of waiting for a higher bounce ideal for a pullback short, my entry at 1.27752 suggests that I chose to capture a move early in the downswing or perhaps because price action broke a key support level. This could be advantageous if momentum continues as anticipated.
Why This Trade Setup Works
Alignment with Trend: Maintaining a sell position aligns with the overall bearish structure indicated by your moving averages and directional indicators.
Captchaing a Bounce Rejection: Even if a short-term bounce occurs from oversold conditions, your entry near 1.27752 could capture the early phase of a bearish continuation provided that the rally fails to sustain.
Confluence of Technical Signals: The combination of oversold conditions (which in a downtrend often predict a short-lived bounce) and the strong directional indication from MINUS_DI and related momentum oscillators creates a setup where a rejection of a minor recovery can lead to further downside moves.
GBPUSD H1 | Bullish Bounce OffBased on the H1 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 1.2790, a pullback support.
Our take profit is set at 1.2924, an overlap resistance.
The stop loss is placed at 1.2707, a swing low support.
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Bearish reversal off pullback resistance?The Cable (GBP/USD) is rising towards the pivot which lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse to the 1st support which has been identified as a pullback support.
Pivot: 1.2890
1st Support: 1.2693
1st Resistance: 1.3006
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The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
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Explosive Breakout Setting Up on GBP/USD – Here's the Roadmap🔥 GBP/USD Technical Analysis – 4H Timeframe | Market Poised for Breakout or Breakdown?
Key Support: 1.26888
Key Resistance: 1.28829
Market Structure: Consolidation with bullish undertones
Bias: Neutral-to-bullish (pending confirmation)
🧠 Market Overview:
The GBP/USD pair is currently consolidating within a well-defined horizontal channel on the 4-hour chart, oscillating between 1.26888 (major support) and 1.28829 (key resistance). This prolonged range-bound behavior reflects a market in balance, where buyers and sellers are cautiously awaiting a catalyst to drive the next impulsive move.
The price action suggests that this consolidation phase may be coming to an end soon. A breakout or breakdown from this tight range is likely to set the tone for the next major trend. Market participants should be alert to early breakout signals and volume surges as confirmation triggers.
📊 Price Structure and Key Observations:
The market has printed a series of higher lows within the consolidation range, indicating a subtle bullish pressure beneath the surface.
Price is hovering near the mid-range zone, consolidating after multiple failed breakout attempts at 1.28829.
A squeeze in volatility is evident from narrowing candlesticks and declining ATR, often preceding explosive directional moves.
🔍 Technical Indicators Breakdown:
✅ RSI (14):
Currently trading around the neutral zone at 50, showing no clear directional bias. However, higher lows on RSI suggest potential bullish divergence forming, which could be an early signal of upward momentum building up.
✅ MACD:
A recent bullish crossover below the zero line indicates potential for a shift in momentum. Histogram bars are starting to turn positive, supporting a near-term bullish scenario if price confirms with a breakout.
✅ Moving Averages:
Price is trading above the 50-period SMA, which has acted as dynamic support on several occasions.
The 200-period SMA remains below current price levels, indicating a medium-term bullish structure remains intact unless support is broken decisively.
🔮 Potential Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Breakout Scenario:
If price breaks and closes above 1.28829 on strong bullish volume, it would represent a major breakout from the current range. This could open the door for a new impulsive leg to the upside.
Upside Targets:
🎯 1.29650 – Short-term resistance level from previous highs
🎯 1.30300 – Psychological round number and previous supply zone
🎯 1.31000 – Extended target aligned with Fibonacci 1.618 projection
Confirmation Factors:
Break + retest of 1.28829 as new support
RSI holding above 60
MACD expanding positively
❌ Bearish Rejection / Breakdown Scenario:
Should the pair fail to break above 1.28829 and print a strong bearish rejection candle (e.g., Shooting Star, Bearish Engulfing), the pair could retest the lower support of 1.26888.
A clean break below 1.26888 with a decisive bearish close could signal a trend reversal, shifting sentiment toward the downside.
Downside Targets:
📉 1.26000 – Near-term psychological support
📉 1.25200 – Previous demand area and key fib level (61.8%)
📉 1.24400 – Long-term trendline support (if applicable)
⚙️ Trade Strategy & Risk Management:
Breakout Traders: Wait for a confirmed candle close outside the range (either above 1.28829 or below 1.26888) before entering. Avoid false breakouts by validating with volume and momentum indicators.
Range Traders: Continue fading the range boundaries (buy near 1.26888, sell near 1.28829) while the channel remains intact. Use tight stop-losses just beyond the range to mitigate whipsaw risks.
Swing Traders: A successful breakout presents excellent risk-reward setups for multi-day trades, especially if accompanied by high volatility and news catalysts (e.g., NFP, BoE/Fed announcements).
🧭 Conclusion:
The GBP/USD pair is coiling tightly within a critical decision zone between 1.26888 and 1.28829. The tightening price structure, supportive indicators, and market indecision suggest that a major breakout is imminent.
Whether bulls take control or bears force a breakdown will largely depend on macroeconomic catalysts and institutional order flow. Traders are advised to stay patient, let the market reveal its hand, and execute only on high-probability setups with clear confirmations.
This is not the time to chase the market—this is the time to prepare for the move.
💬 Let me know in the comments how you're positioning yourself on GBP/USD this week!
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Afternoon Update GBPUSD 4/8 4:30pmWhere We Stand
Entry vs. Current Price: I placed a sell at 1.27752, and the current price is now 1.27982—about 0.0023 (or roughly 23 pips) above my entry. In other words, you’re in a slight, manageable loss.
Technical Context:
The moving averages (like the DEMA at 1.2953 and EMA at 1.30089) and the SAR (at 1.29789) remain well above the current price, which means the broader technical landscape still supports a bearish bias.
The directional indicators are favoring the downtrend (with minus DI significantly above plus DI) and even though the RSI is very low (around 20.4, indicating oversold conditions), in strong downtrends oversold readings can persist without triggering a full reversal.
The high ADX-related values (DX ~60.95) further suggest that the trend is robust, even if there’s a brief pullback.
Recent Price Action: On the daily chart, recent swings show that minor retracements can occur as the market digests news and key levels. The current price movement to 1.27982 may simply be a short-term bounce rather than a change in sentiment.
Fundamental Environment: With upcoming news (like the FOMC minutes on April 9th and additional US/UK data later in the week) adding volatility, the market might briefly test higher levels. However, these fundamentals haven’t yet overturned the prevailing technical context.
What to Consider
Hold with Caution: Given that the overall bearish structure, along with key technicals (moving averages, SAR, and directional indicators), still supports a downtrend, keeping the trade is reasonable. The slight pullback above your entry can be viewed as a temporary retracement.
Risk Management:
Watch Key Levels: Monitor if the price decisively holds above a certain level (say, if it pushes well above 1.2800 with strong momentum). That could signal the potential for a sustained reversal—in which case I might need to exit or partially close your position.
Upcoming Fundamental News: The scheduled data releases can spike volatility. Be prepared for erratic price action around these events. It might be wise to reduce my position size or set alerts to protect your downside if the trade starts to move against you.
Recommendation
I lean toward keeping the trade because:
The overall technical setup (moving averages, SAR, and directional movement) remains bearish.
The recent pullback appears to be minor and doesn’t breach key resistance levels that might signal a reversal.
RSI oversold conditions in a strong downtrend aren’t uncommon, so while they may indicate potential for a bounce, they don’t necessarily negate the downtrend.
GBP-USD Strong Breakout! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
GBP-USD made a bearish
Breakout of the key wide horizontal
Level of 1.2851 then made a
Pullback so we are bearish
Biased and a further bearish
Continuation is to be expected
Sell!
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GBPUSD Watch – Bearish Momentum Building Below Supply ZoneGBPUSD pair has broken sharply below the long-standing accumulation range between 1.2857 – 1.3012, signaling a shift in market sentiment. The recent bearish engulfing structure has pushed price into a corrective pullback phase, with sellers likely to re-enter on rallies.
Key Technical Levels:
Current Price: 1.2795
Resistance (Supply Zone): 1.2857 – 1.2863
First Support Target: 1.2688 – 1.2690
Mid-Level Target: 1.2568 – 1.2570
Final Bearish Target: 1.2383 – 1.2390 (demand zone & key support)
Trade Scenario:
📉 Bearish Bias:
Price is expected to retrace into the supply zone (1.2857–1.2863) and then reject.
If resistance holds and structure remains intact, expect continuation toward:
TP1: 1.2689
TP2: 1.2568
TP3: 1.2385
🔁 Invalidation Zone:
A sustained break and close above 1.2863 would invalidate the bearish setup and could trigger a move toward 1.3012.
Technical Confluence:
✅ Previous consolidation turned into a strong resistance zone
✅ Bearish breakout from range
✅ Clean lower highs and lower lows structure
✅ Volume drop on the pullback (likely a corrective move)
GBP/USD possible bear set up/sell offAscending wedge channel 70% of bear breakout. We have 3 HHs printed with a possible 4th. We are currently in a strong bear trend. So trading with the trend here. Biggest target is a daily target. If a certain support level breaks on the daily I will target the wedge channel fill from the daily.
Heading into pullback resistance?GBP/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.2876
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.2967
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.2714
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Lets Talk about GBPUSD..Trade Setup: Short GBP/USD
Entry: Sell now!
Stop Loss: Place your stop just above the recent intraday swing high. A level around 1.2790 offers a buffer in case of whipsaw moves.
Take Profit: With the risk defined by the difference between 1.2790 and your entry near 1.2725 (approximately 0.0065, or 65 pips), aiming for a reward roughly twice that size can be attractive. Setting a target near 1.2580 gives you a risk/reward ratio around 1:2.2. This level is in the vicinity of prior support from the day’s price action.
Rationale
Technical Overbought Signals: The elevated RSI, Stochastic, CCI, and Ultimate Oscillator values suggest that buyers might be exhausted and a pullback is due. With oscillators teetering in the overbought zone, the market’s momentum appears at risk of reversing.
Directional Indicators: The fact that the minus DI is significantly higher than the plus DI indicates that downward pressure is gaining strength, even though the ADX (≈21.65) and ADXR (≈23.32) hint that the trend isn’t yet fully solidified. This sets the stage for a potential reversal from an overextended area.
Price Action & Key Levels: Today’s price action has been squeezed into a narrow range with support clustered around 1.272–1.273 (supported by DEMA and SAR levels). A confirmed break below this zone would likely trigger further selling into established support areas.
Fundamental Surprises: With the mix of U.S. and U.K. fundamentals on the horizon this week, be mindful of possible volatility. If, for example, UK data comes in stronger than expected, it might buoy the GBP despite the technical caution—at which point you might re-assess or even consider a counter-trend long if the pullback reverses.
GBPUSD 15MBreak and Retest Strategy for GBPUAD Buy Position on 15m Chart
*Identifying the Break*
The GBPUSD pair has broken above the
1.27068 resistance level on the 15-minute chart. This level was previously tested multiple times, and the recent break suggests a potential shift in market sentiment.
*Waiting for the Retest*
After the break, the price has pulled back to retest the 1.27068 level. This retest is a crucial step in confirming the break and increasing the likelihood of a successful trade.
*Trade Idea*
*Buy* GBPUAD at 1.27520 (current price) with a *Stop Loss* at 1.27068 and a *Take Profit* at 1.3000.
*Rationale*
1. *Break and Retest:* The break above 1.27068 and subsequent retest increases the confidence in the trade.
2. *Support Turned Resistance:* The 1.27068 level, previously resistance, is now acting as support, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment.
3. *Momentum:* The break and retest have created a sense of momentum, which could propel the price higher.
*Risk Management*
- Set a stop loss at 1.27068 to limit potential losses.
- Use a risk-reward ratio of 1:3 or higher.
- Monitor the trade closely and adjust the stop loss and take profit levels as needed.