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British Pound / U.S. Dollar

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GBPUSD trade ideas

GBPUSD H4 | Bullish Rise Based on the H4 chart, price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the ascending trendline, with the price currently near our buy entry level at 1.22118, which aligns with a key pullback support zone. Our take profit is set at 1.22978, targeting a significant resistance level, marking a logical exit point for the trade. The stop loss is set at 1.21520, below the recent swing low, allowing room for price fluctuations while protecting against invalidation of the bullish bias. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
1
GBPUSD Bearish 1 Hour Divergence.1. Market Analysis: Asset: GBPUSD Timeframe: 1-hour Pattern: Bearish divergence 2. Divergence Details: Bearish Divergence: A bearish divergence occurs when the price forms higher highs, but the oscillator (like RSI or MACD) forms lower highs. This suggests that buying momentum is weakening, and a downward reversal might be on the horizon. 3. Trade Setup: Entry Point: Consider entering a short position if a bearish candlestick pattern forms after the divergence confirmation on the 1-hour chart. Look for strong confirmation like a bearish engulfing or shooting star pattern. Stop-Loss: Place the stop-loss above the recent swing high on the 1-hour chart to manage risk. This positioning protects against an unexpected upward move. Take-Profit: Identify key support levels for take-profit targets, aiming for a 1:2 risk-reward ratio. Target areas could include previous support zones or Fibonacci retracement levels. 4. Risk Management: Position Size: Calculate your position size based on your risk tolerance and the stop-loss distance. Typically, risk only a small percentage of your capital (e.g., 1-2%) on this trade. Risk-Reward Ratio: Aim for at least a 1:2 risk-reward ratio, meaning that your take-profit target is at least twice the distance of your stop-loss. 5. Additional Confirmation: Volume Analysis: Check if there is a decrease in volume as the price reaches higher highs. This can add weight to the bearish divergence setup. Support and Resistance Levels: Ensure the trade setup aligns with strong support and resistance zones for additional confirmation. 6. Trade Execution: Place Orders: Set your sell order, stop-loss, and take-profit levels based on the criteria above. Monitor the Trade: Keep an eye on the trade and adjust the stop-loss to break even or trail it if the price moves in your favor. 7. Review and Adjust: Post-Trade Analysis: After the trade closes, review the outcome to understand what worked well and any areas for improvement in future trades.
Short
by MAAwan
GBPUSD: Tracking the Downtrend – Key Support Levels and ShortinTrend Analysis The FX:GBPUSD GBP/USD pair remains firmly bearish, with strong selling pressure driving prices lower. The downtrend is reinforced by macroeconomic factors, including the stronger TVC:DXY USD and the UK's fiscal challenges. Trading Strategy Short Setup: Entry: Wait for a pullback to 1.2300 (resistance turned support) or any bounce that shows rejection near resistance levels. Stop Loss: Above 1.2350 to avoid false breakouts. Target: Short-term targets at 1.2100 and 1.2000. Extend to 1.1800 if momentum persists. Downside Scenario:If 1.2100 breaks decisively, consider entering additional short positions targeting 1.2000 or lower. Key Indicators to Monitor US Dollar Strength: Watch for continued TVC:DXY USD strength driven by Fed policy and US economic resilience. UK Data: Monitor upcoming UK macroeconomic releases (e.g., CPI, GDP) that could influence GBP sentiment. Technical Confirmation: Look for sustained breakouts or rejections near identified levels before entering trades.
Short
by Market_Virtuoso
1
POST CPI GBPUSDPost CPI Analysis: Yesterday, we saw some notable volume as price pushed towards the daily resistance level around 1.2300. However, this resistance held firm, with bears stepping in and driving price back down toward support at 1.2215. Possible Scenarios: - Bullish Continuation (Pullback Scenario): If the support around 1.2215 holds and price begins to stabilize, this could be a pullback within an overall bullish trend, potentially setting up for another attempt toward the 1.2300 resistance level. A strong bounce from this area could signal a continuation to the upside. - Bearish Breakdown (Support Failure):Alternatively, price is flirting with breaking below the 1.2200 support level. If this level fails to hold, we could see further downside, with the next key support zone around 1.2100. Stay alert for a clear breakout or bounce to confirm the next move.
Short
by J_Ngatia
GBP/USD 4H Timeframe AnalysisGBP/USD 4H Timeframe Analysis Trend Analysis On the 4-hour timeframe, GBP/USD is in a downtrend, breaking below the previous key support at 1.2300, which is now acting as minor resistance. A bearish engulfing candle followed the break, signaling strong selling momentum. The price has not yet reached the next support level, as we expect a liquidity hunt to occur above the minor key resistance at 1.2300. This would involve a temporary break above this level, gathering liquidity from stop-loss orders, before the downtrend resumes. Recent UK GDP m/m data, with an actual of 0.1% versus a forecast of 0.2%, highlights weaker-than-expected economic growth, adding to the bearish sentiment for GBP. Meanwhile, US economic indicators, including Core Retail Sales m/m (forecast: 0.5%, previous: 0.2%), Retail Sales m/m (forecast: 0.6%, previous: 0.7%), and Unemployment Claims (forecast: 210K, previous: 201K), demonstrate resilience in the US economy. This divergence strengthens the USD against the GBP. Price Action Expectation: Our objective is to wait for the price to break above the minor resistance at 1.2300, confirming the liquidity hunt. Observe for a bearish reversal after the liquidity hunt, targeting a break below the resistance-turned-support at 1.22700. Once the support breaks, expect the price to continue its downtrend toward the next significant support zone. Trade Setup Trade Type: Sell Stop Entry: 1.22700 (upon confirmation of the break below resistance-turned-support) Stop Loss: 1.23440 (above the liquidity zone to avoid false breakouts) Take Profit: 1.20730 (targeting the next significant support level) This setup requires patience and discipline, ensuring the liquidity hunt and subsequent price action align with the bearish outlook.. Fundamental Outlook: Recent economic data highlights divergence between the UK and US economies, with the UK’s GDP m/m showing sluggish growth at 0.1% (forecast: 0.2%, previous: -0.1%) pressuring the pound, while the US economy displays strength with Core Retail Sales m/m forecasted at 0.5% (previous: 0.2%), Retail Sales m/m at 0.6% (previous: 0.7%), and Unemployment Claims expected at 210K (previous: 201K), showcasing robust consumer activity and a stable labor market, bolstering the dollar. Risk Management Maintain a 1:2+ risk-to-reward ratio to optimize outcomes. Position size should align with your account equity for effective risk management. Monitor liquidity zones closely to avoid premature stop-outs. Trading involves significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Always seek advice from a financial professional if unsure about trading decisions.
Short
by RebornFXTrader
symmetrical triangle pattern forming in the GBP/USD currency paiThis chart shows a symmetrical triangle pattern forming in the GBP/USD currency pair. The price is consolidating within two converging trendlines, indicating a potential breakout. Key observations: 1. Support and Resistance: The lower trendline acts as dynamic support, with the price bouncing off it. The upper trendline serves as resistance, capping upward movement. 2. Potential Breakout: If the price breaks above the upper trendline, it may indicate a bullish continuation, targeting higher levels around 1.2300 or beyond. A breakdown below the lower trendline could signal bearish momentum, with potential downside levels near 1.2150. 3. Volume Consideration: Watch for increased volume during the breakout to confirm the move. Traders might wait for confirmation of the breakout direction before entering trades.
Long
by SOPHIA_06
GBP/USD slips after soft UK retail salesThe British pound is lower on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.2201, down 0.27% on the day. The pound can't find its footing and is down 2.5% in January and a massive 8.8% since October 1. UK retail sales ended the week on a disappointing note. December retail sales declined 0.3% m/m, down from a downwardly revised 0.1% gain in November and shy of the forecast of 0.4%. Quarterly, retail sales fell 0.8% in the fourth quarter. The weak retail data indicates that the UK consumer held tight on the purse strings during the crucial Christmas season. Consumers remain cautious over inflation worries and expectations that interest rates will stay high. Consumer spending is a key engine of economic growth, and the decrease is retail sales has raised fears of stagflation, a toxic mix of high inflation and low growth which will further hurt businesses and households. The UK economy posted negligible growth of just 0.1% in November, after back-to-back months of no growth. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves could not have been pleased with the soft GDP and retail sales numbers. Reeves delivered a "tax and spend" budget in October 2024 and has admitted that she needs the economy to show stronger growth in order to increase tax revenue and carry out her spending plans. If the weak economy does not turn around soon, Reeves could find herself on the hot seat. In the US, retail sales gained 0.4% m/m in December after an upwardly revised gain of 0.8% in November and below the forecast of 0.6%. Annually, retail sales rose 3.9%, below a downwardly revised 4.1% gain in November and above the forecast of 4.0%. The numbers show that consumer spending remains solid and the Federal Reserve isn't under pressure to lower interest rates anytime soon. GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2225. Below, there is support at 1.2188 1.2274 and 1.2311 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 17, 2025 GBPUSDUK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth showed signs of recovery in November, although it fell short of market forecasts. It registered a marginal decline of 0.1% compared to the 0.2% expected for the month, and only slightly up from the previous -0.1% decline. UK industrial production remained stable in November, contracting by 0.4% and missing the forecast increase to 0.1% compared to the previous decline of -0.6%. In the US, December retail sales data softened, falling to 0.4% m/m in the core reading. Analysts had anticipated a decline to 0.6% from a revised 0.8% in the previous month. The core retail sales figure, excluding auto spending, rose to 0.4% m/m from 0.2%, meeting analysts' average forecasts. The conflicting data did not prompt significant fluctuations in investor sentiment. UK retail sales data for December is scheduled for release at the start of the London session on Friday, and is expected to rise to 0.4% from November's 0.2%. On an annualised basis, retail sales are expected to rise to 4.2% from the previous reading of 0.5%, a high median figure for an economic area that has regularly failed to meet market expectations in recent months. Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.22000, if we consolidate above it we consider Buy positions, if we rebound we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004