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GBPUSD Wave Analysis 22 November 2024 - GBPUSD broke support zone - Likely to fall to support level 1.2465 GBPUSD currency pair recently broke the support zone located between the support level 1.2620 (former monthly low from June) and the support trendline of the daily down channel from September. The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 of the higher impulse wave (C) from the start of November. Given the strongly bullish US dollar sentiment seen today, GBPUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 1.2465, former monthly low from May and the target for the completion of the active impulse 3.
Short
by FxProGlobal
GBPUSD Short and Longs (News) Scenario 1: Both PMIs Better than Forecast Actual Manufacturing PMI: 49.5 (Better than 48.8 forecast) Actual Services PMI: 56.0 (Better than 55.2 forecast) EUR/USD: Down - If both sectors perform better than expected, this might signal a stronger US economy, potentially leading to a stronger Dollar. GBP/USD: Down - Similar to EUR/USD, a stronger US economic outlook could weaken GBP against USD. USD/JPY: Up - Improved US PMI data might strengthen USD against JPY, especially if this leads to expectations of a tighter Fed policy. Scenario 2: Both PMIs Worse than Forecast Actual Manufacturing PMI: 48.0 (Worse than 48.8 forecast) Actual Services PMI: 54.0 (Worse than 55.2 forecast) EUR/USD: Up - If both sectors disappoint, this could indicate economic weakness in the US, leading to a weaker USD. GBP/USD: Up - Weaker US data might make GBP relatively stronger, especially if UK economic indicators are not as disappointing. USD/JPY: Down - A disappointing PMI might lead investors to question the US economic recovery, potentially weakening USD against JPY. The Fib is just an example if we was to see a sell off it may come into play. If we not seeing a sell off the Fib will be non existent.
by PipsandTicks1
2
British retail sales decline, pound extends lossesThe British pound is lower for a straight third trading day on Friday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2543, down 0.36% on the day. UK retail sales disappointed in October, with a sharp decline of 0.7% m/m. This follows a downwardly revised 0.1% gain in September and missed than the market estimate of 0.3%. Annually, retail sales rose 2.4%, well below the market estimate of 3.2%. The September reading was revised downwards from 3.9% to 3.2%. The sharp drop in retail sales can be attributed to low consumer confidence and the recent Budget. The GfK consumer confidence index showed an improvement, rising from -21 to -18, but this points to a very pessimistic British consumer who is thinking twice before making discretionary purchases. The Reeves Budget on Oct. 31 dampened consumer spending, as the government had warned about “difficult decisions” and proceeded to deliver a Budget with some 40 billion pounds worth of tax increases. Understandably, consumers held back on spending in October and retail sales were down across most categories. The economy has slowed since the July election and services and manufacturing activity have decelerated for three straight months. The UK releases the Services and Manufacturing PMIs later today. The Services PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 52.0, while the Manufacturing PMI if projected to inch up to 50.0, up from 49.9. If the PMIs are weaker than expected, the pound could respond with losses. The US will also publish manufacturing and services PMIs on Friday, with little change expected. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise from 45.5 to 45.8, and the Services PMI, which has been showing solid growth, from 55 to 55.2. GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2557, followed by support at 1.2525 There is resistance at 1.2609 and 1.2641
by OANDA
Opportunity for cable to rebound depending on dataThe pound has made strong losses against the US dollar in the third quarter so far, having been overheated in September. Donald Trump’s election has generated some negativity due to the likely introduction of tariffs and general deterioration of relations between the UK and USA. However, with the BoE now much less likely to cut rates next month and with only two cuts expected next year, it’s questionable whether there’s a strong fundamental reason for further strong losses by cable. The price is still in the area of the 50% monthly Fibonacci retracement which seems to be quite a strong support. An attempt to move below $1.26 was rejected with some strength on 15 November but $1.27 seems to be a significant local resistance. For a major forex pair, cable’s movements have been quite dramatic in the last few months. There’s still a strong oversold signal from the slow stochastic after this oscillator’s crossover on 18 November. $1.23 seems to be the next critical support on the weekly chart but it’d be unlikely to see the price move that far before the end of the year. If the next interaction with $1.27 leads to a breakout above, one might expect a pause before the next possible movement lower, but a reversal of the downtrend also looks possible. In the short term, selling looks more risky than buying unless there are significant surprises from upcoming data.
by Exness_Official
GBP/USD: Bearish Trend Targets Lower LevelsGBP/USD is currently trading around 1.2564, extending its bearish trend after breaking below a long-term ascending channel. The price is consolidating below the resistance zone at 1.2685, which previously served as a support level, now turned resistance. This area is critical as it aligns with the recent breakdown structure. If GBP/USD retests the 1.2685 level and fails to break above, the bearish trend is likely to continue. The next major support lies around 1.2360, where buyers may attempt to regain control. However, a sustained bearish move could push the pair even lower. On the upside, a break above 1.2685 could lead to a short-term recovery toward the resistance zone near 1.2880, but this remains less likely given the prevailing downtrend. Traders should focus on selling opportunities near resistance levels, with targets around 1.2360 and stops placed above 1.2700 to manage risk effectively.
Short
by Veda_Solomon
GBP/USD: Bearish Trend Remains DominantGBP/USD is currently trading around 1.2612, maintaining its bearish outlook as the price fails to break above key resistance zones. The pair has tested the 1.2640-1.2650 resistance area multiple times, with clear rejections indicating strong selling pressure. The next significant zone lies at 1.2600-1.2620, which is expected to act as an immediate resistance level. If the price retests this area and fails to break higher, a continuation of the bearish trend is likely, targeting the 1.2570 level initially and potentially extending toward 1.2500. However, if GBP/USD manages to break above 1.2620, it could revisit the upper resistance near 1.2640, creating a short-term bullish scenario. For now, sellers dominate, and a failure at current levels could provide an excellent opportunity to align with the downward momentum. Traders should monitor the 1.2600-1.2620 zone for potential short entries, with stops above 1.2645 to manage risk.
by Mr_Siro
GBPUSD is in the Buying Direction after Testing SupportHello Traders In This Chart GBPUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today GBPUSD analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (GBPUSD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on GBPUSD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Long
by ForexMasters2000
Opportunity for cable to rebound depending on dataThe pound has made strong losses against the US dollar in the third quarter so far, having been overheated in September. Donald Trump’s election has generated some negativity due to the likely introduction of tariffs and general deterioration of relations between the UK and USA. However, with the BoE now much less likely to cut rates next month and with only two cuts expected next year, it’s questionable whether there’s a strong fundamental reason for further strong losses by cable. The price is still in the area of the 50% monthly Fibonacci retracement which seems to be quite a strong support. An attempt to move below $1.26 was rejected with some strength on 15 November but $1.27 seems to be a significant local resistance. For a major forex pair, cable’s movements have been quite dramatic in the last few months. There’s still a strong oversold signal from the slow stochastic after this oscillator’s crossover on 18 November. $1.23 seems to be the next critical support on the weekly chart but it’d be unlikely to see the price move that far before the end of the year. If the next interaction with $1.27 leads to a breakout above, one might expect a pause before the next possible movement lower, but a reversal of the downtrend also looks possible. In the short term, selling looks more risky than buying unless there are significant surprises from upcoming data. This is my personal opinion which does not represent the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
by Michael_Stark_Exness
GBPUSD Short opportunity Re-entry in Order Block Price made the high of the week on Wednesday and closed yesterday's daily candle with a bearish pattern. Today, I was looking for shorts only and found a good entry earlier during the London session, hitting Wednesday's low. Price just gave a reentry in the order block around 1.26470. Targeting today's low and ultimately Tuesday's low, with a longer-term target at Monday's low around 1.26014. Additionally, today's focus is on the weekly jobless claims data, which could impact market sentiment. Stop-loss is set above today's high around 1.26600, a psychological level, to manage risk effectively. RSI is showing bearish divergence, supporting the short bias. Overall market sentiment is bearish due to increased concerns over economic data. Keep an eye on upcoming economic data. Chart Annotations: - Wednesday High - Thursday High - Monday Low - Tuesday Low - Wednesday Low - Order Block around 1.26470 - Selling Point at 1.26415 - Buying Point at 1.26427
Short
by hskarue
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 21, 2024 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair declined to 1.26500 during Asian trading on Thursday. This decline can be attributed to the weakening of the US dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the dollar against six major peers, is holding near 106.50 at the time of writing. However, downside risk to the US Dollar may be limited due to cautious remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Wednesday that while further interest rate cuts are necessary, policymakers should proceed cautiously to avoid moving too fast or too slow, Bloomberg reported. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Michelle Bowman emphasized that inflation has remained elevated over the past few months and stressed the need for the Fed to take a cautious approach to rate cuts. The Reuters poll showed that nearly 90% of economists (94 out of 106) expect a 25 bps rate cut in December, which would bring the federal funds rate down to 4.25-4.50%. Economists forecast a slower rate cut in 2025 due to the risk of higher inflation as a result of President-elect Trump's policies. The federal funds rate is forecast to be 3.50-3.75% by the end of 2025, 50 bps above last month's forecast. GBP/USD's upside potential seems restrained due to safe-haven flows amid the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine. On Wednesday, Ukraine fired a salvo of British Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russian territory, marking the latest use of Western weapons against Russian targets. This came after Ukraine used U.S. ATACMS missiles the previous day. Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004