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British Pound / U.S. Dollar

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GBPUSD trade ideas

Fundamental Market Analysis for April 30, 2025 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair continues to fall for the second consecutive session, hovering near 1.3390 during Asian trading on Wednesday. The pair has been under pressure as the US dollar has strengthened amid renewed optimism over trade developments between the US and China. Traders are now turning their attention to the upcoming release of the March Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, which is a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar's exchange rate against six major currencies, remains above 99.00, suggesting U.S. Treasury yields are rising. The 2-year and 10-year US bond yields broke a four-day losing streak and were trading around 3.66 per cent and 4.17 per cent respectively at the time of writing. On the data front, the JOLTS US job openings report released on Tuesday showed a decline in the number of open positions to 7.19 million in March - the lowest level since September 2024 - indicating a cooling in labour demand. The figure fell short of expectations and emphasised growing economic uncertainty. Adding to GBP/USD's decline are rising expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut rates at its May meeting. Lower inflation expectations in the United Kingdom (UK) and increasing global economic factors favour a rate hike. Bank of England Governor Megan Green recently stated that tariffs proposed by US President Donald Trump could lead to lower inflation in the UK, although significant uncertainties remain over the broader economic impact and recent tax hikes for employers. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3390, SL 1.3420, TP 1.3300
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBPUSD movement predictionLooking at price action we have a lot of upside potential but we currently have a massive imblaance below after all the tarriff chaos. expecting a quick touch on the supply above with an expectation to collect all of the imbalance below ready for a drive to the zone you can see at the top of the chart. These are supply zones which are still left open from June 21 and Feb 22 with some major imbalances directly after them on the daily. Confluence for the touch on supply zone is the equal highs created which will leave us with some liquidity above. This paired with the open supply should give us some decent selling power to come back to the downside for the demand. Confirmation needed for any move from these zones.
by craiguu1z1
GBP/USD – 1992 Replay | George Soros “Broke the Bank” TradeHistorical Context Summary: This chart revisits the iconic 1992 short by George Soros against the British Pound, which ultimately forced the UK to abandon its currency peg and exit the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). The marked zones reflect the approximate levels where Soros reportedly initiated and closed his short position, anticipating a collapse of the GBP against the USD. Real-time Trade Thesis: Soros identified that the British economy was fundamentally too weak to sustain a fixed exchange rate against the Deutsche Mark, enforced through the ERM. Inflation was high, the economy was slowing, and the government was hiking rates and burning through reserves to defend the pound. Meanwhile, Germany’s economy was far stronger, making the GBP significantly overvalued relative to its fundamentals. The Quantum Fund went short over £10 billion worth of GBP using highly leveraged positions, primarily via GBP/USD. On September 16, 1992 ("Black Wednesday") , the Bank of England capitulated after failing to hold the peg, and the pound collapsed—securing Soros one of the most profitable trades in history with over $1 billion in gains. Technical Analysis Context: This GBP/USD chart highlights the upper “order activation” zone where Soros began scaling into his short, as price stalled near the artificially defended level. As speculative pressure intensified, the central bank’s interventions failed, leading to a violent breakdown. The lower box marks the approximate range where Soros likely began closing the trade and locking in profit as the peg failed and panic selling set in. Key Lessons: Pegged currencies can’t defy economic fundamentals forever. Macro conviction + tactical timing = asymmetric return. Central banks can lose to coordinated market pressure. Use leverage wisely, only when your thesis is airtight. Liquidity stress often precedes capitulation—watch reserve flows and bond yields. History leaves patterns—legendary trades repeat in new forms across cycles.
Education
by GreenZoneCapital
GBPUSD(20250429)Today's AnalysisMarket news: The U.S. Treasury Department raised its second quarter debt forecast to $514 billion. U.S. Treasury Secretary: The "X Day" for the debt ceiling issue will be announced soon. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 1.3387 Support and resistance levels: 1.3549 1.3488 1.3449 1.3325 1.3286 1.3225 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 1.3449, consider buying, the first target price is 1.3488 If the price breaks through 1.3387, consider selling, the first target price is 1.3325
Short
by Toml1314
GBP/USD Price Action Update – April 29, 2025📊GBP/USD Price Action Update – April 29, 2025 🔹Current Price: 1.34082 🔹Timeframe: 15M 📌Key Demand Zone (Support): 🟢1.33837 – Fresh Bullish Base (potential bullish re-entry zone) 📌Key Resistance Level: 🔴Near recent highs (above 1.34600 area – untested liquidity zone) 📈Bullish Outlook: Price is pulling back after a strong bullish move and is now approaching the 1.33837 demand zone. A clean bullish reaction from this zone can lead price back toward the previous highs. Watch for bullish engulfing or break of structure confirmation. 📉Bearish Outlook: Failure to hold above 1.33837 could trigger a deeper correction. A break below this zone would weaken the bullish momentum and open the door for a retest of lower intraday levels. ⚡Trade Setup Tip: ✅Look for bullish confirmations near 1.33837 ✅Target partial profits near previous highs ✅Use tight SL under demand zone lows for strong risk management #GBPUSD #ForexTrading #SmartMoneyConcepts #PriceAction #SupplyAndDemand #FXFOREVER #BreakOfStructure #IntradaySetups #MarketUpdate #TechnicalAnalysis
by FXFOREVER_87
Emerging Swing Trade OpportunityHello, GBPUSD sees more downside as the dollar stays strong as doubts about fed rate cuts grow so the UK struggles to find a way out of the market slump that it is currently in.Early gains of +0.15% were seen as the USD came under pressure late in NY, following a +0.05% close. Trump advisors considering gradual tariff hikes led to USD selling in late NY. A survey shows UK firms reduced headcount late last year in response to a tax hike. Mixed daily momentum studies and expanding 21-day Bollinger bands are noted in charts. The 5, 10, and 21-DMAs are sliding, with weeklies remaining bearish, indicating a strong negative slip. The focus is on testing the 1.2038 low from October 2023, followed by the 1.1805 low in March 2023. Friday's high of 1.2322 and the well-tested 1.2465 21 DMA are the first resistance levels. Bulls need a close above the 1.2465 21-DMA to gain excitement. A swing trade opportunity is emerging, with strong daily and weekly resistance at 1.226201/1.241555 which have to confirm upside along the way and act as supports. Ultimately, we want the monthly initial support at 1.24809 to hold, ensuring a guaranteed upside. No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost TradeWithTheTrend3344
Long
by TradeWithTheTrend3344
Long trade 1Hr TF overview 📈 GBP/USD – Buy-Side Trade 🗓 Date: Wednesday, 23rd April 2025 🕕 Time: 6:00 PM (New York Time) 📍 Session: NY to Tokyo Overlap (PM) ⏱ Entry Timeframe: 5-Minute TF Trade Parameters Entry Price: 1.32709 Take Profit: 1.34232 (+1.15%) Stop Loss: 1.32511 (–0.15%) Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 7.69 Reasoning Narrative This GBP/USD trade was built on a clear short-term bullish structure, observed into the New York close, where price respected a key demand zone from earlier in the day.
Long
by davidjulien369
Weekly Forex Market Analysis:GBPUSD– Issue 208(Free access)The analyst predicts that the GBP/USD rate will increase within the time specified on the countdown timer. This prediction is based on a quantitative analysis of the price trend ___Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
Long
by MoonriseTA
GU Liquidity Game—Institutional Absorption vs. Breakout MomentumGBP/USD Hourly Analysis & Trade Execution I’ve been closely tracking GBP/USD, and now price is sitting at 1.34208, testing the critical resistance zone at 1.34250. Bulls have maintained control, but I’m watching closely for institutional absorption or signs of exhaustion. Market Structure & Key Zones Major Resistance: 1.34250-1.34500 → If buyers hold, price could extend toward 1.34500. Support at 1.33800-1.33950 → A possible demand zone if price pulls back before pushing higher. Liquidity Trap Below 1.33650 → A quick dip below 1.33800, followed by aggressive buying, would indicate institutional positioning. Momentum & Trend Confirmation RSI (1-hour): 66.38 → Bullish, but nearing exhaustion territory. Stochastic RSI (1-hour): 61.27 → Buyers are in control but watching for signs of slowing momentum. Stochastic Fast (1-hour): 60.54 → Trend is intact, but reversal signals could emerge near resistance. Trade Management Strategy Setup: Bullish Breakout Continuation Since price is testing 1.34250, I’ll hold my long position if buyers show sustained strength. Entry: Holding long if price stabilizes above 1.34250. Stop Loss: Adjusted to 1.33950 to lock in gains. Target 1: 1.34500, strong resistance level. Target 2: 1.34650, extended play if volume supports the breakout. Setup: Liquidity Sweep & Reversal If price rejects 1.34250, I’ll look for a pullback setup before re-entering long. Entry: If price dips below 1.33800 but aggressively reclaims 1.34000, re-enter long. Stop Loss: Below 1.33650, ensuring tight risk control. Target 1: 1.34150, reclaiming previous resistance. Target 2: 1.34350, profit zone if buyers remain strong. Institutional Activity & Order Flow Considerations Liquidity Sweeps Below 1.33850 → If price dips but quickly recovers, it could be a stop-hunt before continuation. Absorption Near 1.34250 → If price holds steady here without sharp rejection, buyers may be absorbing sell-side liquidity. Volume Confirmation at 1.34150 → If volume remains strong, further upside toward 1.34500 is likely. Final Execution Adjustments Monitoring order flow to assess whether institutions are accumulating or distributing positions near resistance. Watching volume absorption and candle behavior near 1.34250. Right now, GBP/USD is at a pivotal level—if buyers sustain above 1.34250, the trend continuation toward 1.34500-1.34650 is in play. However, failure to hold may signal institutional selling, triggering a pullback before another bullish attempt.
Long
by Sel_Ali
GBPUSD Analysis 10:37am 4/28. Happy Monday! GBP/USD Hourly Analysis & Day Trading Perspective I’m looking at GBP/USD on the hourly timeframe, where price is now sitting at 1.339, confirming strong bullish momentum after breaking past key resistance. Here's how I'm approaching today's trading plan: Market Structure & Key Levels Resistance at 1.33850-1.34000 – Price is testing this level, and volume confirmation will determine whether we continue upward. Support at 1.33650-1.33700 – If we see a pullback, this zone could act as a strong bounce area. Institutional Interest at 1.33250-1.33300 – A liquidity zone where major players may absorb sell-side pressure. Momentum & Trend Strength RSI (1-hour): 88.88 → Overbought, meaning we might see consolidation or a retrace before another leg up. CCI (1-hour): 81.81 → Still bullish, but exhaustion signs are creeping in. Stochastic RSI (1-hour): 83.32 → Buyers are still in control, but reversals become more likely at extreme readings. Directional Strength & Trend Confirmation ADX (1-hour): 13.38 → Weak trend strength, suggesting that price could start ranging. DX (1-hour): 79.92 → A strong push confirms market participation. Day Trading Plan Setup: Bullish Breakout Continuation Since price has cleared 1.33650, the breakout play is already in motion. Here’s how I’m managing the setup: Entry: Holding long as price remains above 1.33850, with strong buying pressure. Target 1: 1.34000, a psychological barrier where liquidity may sit. Target 2: 1.34250, next significant resistance. Setup: Liquidity Sweep & Reversal If price retraces, I’ll look for signs of institutional absorption before considering re-entry. Entry: If price dips below 1.33650 but quickly reclaims 1.33800, I’ll look for confirmation of a reversal. Target 1: 1.33950, previous high. Target 2: 1.34200, extended move. Order Flow & Volume Profile Considerations Institutional Absorption: If price briefly drops below 1.33800 but quickly reclaims it, institutions could be absorbing liquidity. Liquidity Trap: A sharp sell-off into 1.33650 could trigger stop losses before a potential bounce. Volume Confirmation: If buyers remain strong at 1.33850, the move toward 1.34000-1.34250 is more likely. Risk Management & Execution Strategy I’ll monitor candle closures above 1.33850 before committing to further upside targets. If volume increases, I’ll hold for 1.34000; if it slows down, I’ll consider partial profit-taking. Watching institutional behavior near 1.33650 will be key for catching potential liquidity grabs. Right now, GBP/USD is at a critical decision point—either continuation toward 1.34000, or a pullback to absorb liquidity before the next push. The key is watching volume flow and price absorption for confirmation before executing further moves.
Long
by Sel_Ali
GBPUSD(20250428)Today's AnalysisMarket news: The Fed's subsequent policy path considers two scenarios: First, there is no substantial progress in the negotiations between the United States and its trading partners. After 90 days, the US tariffs are still high. Weakened economic demand may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates starting in July, and the annual rate cut may reach 100 basis points; second, the negotiations are fruitful, tariffs are reduced, and the demand shock is small, but inflationary pressure continues. The Fed may postpone easing and only cut interest rates slightly in December. For the market, although the easing comes early in the first scenario, the "recession-style" rate cut may suppress risky assets. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 1.3309 Support and resistance levels: 1.3379 1.3353 1.3336 1.3282 1.3265 1.3239 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 1.3309, consider buying, the first target price is 1.3336 If the price breaks through 1.3282, consider selling, the first target price is 1.3265
Long
by Toml1314