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British Pound / U.S. Dollar

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GBPUSD trade ideas

Core PPI & PPI GBPUSD Outlook Price Action Analysis: 1.2200 Key Level - Bearish or Bullish? Looking at the H4 chart, price action is currently hovering around the critical 1.2200 level. Here's what I'm seeing: Bearish Scenario: If price continues to show rejection at 1.2200, we could see a drop towards the 1.2100 support zone, indicating potential bearish momentum. A failure to break above 1.2200 would confirm the downside move. Bullish Scenario: On the other hand, if the price breaks and closes above 1.2200, this could signal a bullish continuation towards 1.2234. A close above 1.2200 would validate the bullish setup. Key Levels to Watch: 1.2200: Crucial resistance. A rejection here could lead to further downside (bearish). A breakout above this level could trigger upside momentum (bullish). 1.2100: Support zone to target in the bearish scenario. 1.2234: Next resistance zone to watch for if the bullish trend plays out. Before making any trades, watch for confirmation patterns and candlestick formations around these key levels. Always use solid risk management strategies, as price action can be volatile near these levels. Let’s see which way the market moves! 📈💡
Short
by J_Ngatia
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 14, 2025 GBPUSDGBP/USD faltered as markets changed their expectations for interest rates before the end of the year, sending the pair to fresh 15-month lows and breaking through 1.2100, but then ended trading near the 1.2230 starting point. It has been a quiet start to the week, but more inflation data from both the US and the UK will give traders plenty of material to ponder as they try to determine the first quarter rate differential forecast. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to keep interest rates steady for the first half of the year, while the Bank of England (BoE) will have to choose between keeping interest rates stable in a still-high inflation environment and risking an inflationary spike to support the floundering UK economy with further rate cuts. Tuesday's significant data of the week will start with the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which is expected to rise to 3.7% y/y in December from the previous reading of 3.4%. Wednesday will see the release of UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, which is also expected to accelerate in the near term, with a rise to 0.4% m/m versus the previous reading of 0.1%. US CPI inflation, also out on Wednesday, is forecast to rise to 2.8% from 2.7%, US retail sales data is expected on Thursday and UK retail sales round out the list of important data this week. Trading recommendation: Watching the level of 1.2150, trading mainly with Sell orders
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
GBP/USD Channel BreakoutThe GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.2365 2nd Support – 1.2460 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
14
GBPUSD possible bullish movement after Daily doji candleLook at the current GBPUSD movement, I'm expecting the price to go upside at least touching 1.2300 level. Yesterday, seller was strong during asian session but buyer gain the power toward Europe & US session. The daily candle end up closed at 'doji' pattern which hint to strong bullish pattern. During Asian session today, price is doing the healthy pullback. I'm expecting it will touch "base" level as per drawn in chart and move to upside again. My intraday target is at round number 1.2300. What do you think? mind to share? Good luck & Happy trading
Long
by azmi12321
GBPUSD H4 | Bearish drop from 61.8% Fibo?Based on the H4 chart, the price is rising toward the sell entry level at 1.2353, which is a pullback resistance near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. This level is expected to act as a potential reversal point in the bearish setup. Our take profit is set at 1.2108, just above the recent swing low, marking a significant support level. The stop loss is set at 1.2608, an overlap resistance zone, providing room for price fluctuations while protecting against invalidation of the bearish setup. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
Emerging Swing Trade OpportunityHello, GBPUSD sees more downside as the dollar stays strong as doubts about fed rate cuts grow so the UK struggles to find a way out of the market slump that it is currently in.Early gains of +0.15% were seen as the USD came under pressure late in NY, following a +0.05% close. Trump advisors considering gradual tariff hikes led to USD selling in late NY. A survey shows UK firms reduced headcount late last year in response to a tax hike. Mixed daily momentum studies and expanding 21-day Bollinger bands are noted in charts. The 5, 10, and 21-DMAs are sliding, with weeklies remaining bearish, indicating a strong negative slip. The focus is on testing the 1.2038 low from October 2023, followed by the 1.1805 low in March 2023. Friday's high of 1.2322 and the well-tested 1.2465 21 DMA are the first resistance levels. Bulls need a close above the 1.2465 21-DMA to gain excitement. A swing trade opportunity is emerging, with strong daily and weekly resistance at 1.226201/1.241555 which have to confirm upside along the way and act as supports. Ultimately, we want the monthly initial support at 1.24809 to hold, ensuring a guaranteed upside. No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost TradeWithTheTrend3344
Long
by TradeWithTheTrend3344
Short after retracement to 1.23 - back to 1.18The Pound cant seem to catch a breather and given 10Y Yields have hit 4.86% things are looking more ominous for the UK economy. Option traders have 1.7bn lumped on a PUT at 1.20 and given the government is not going to do anything till the budget in March; confidence is waning rapidly in the markets. The more the government tries to act as if all is normal the more nervy the markets are getting. Job losses are starting to mount higher, sales have been ridiculously weak and now the fiscal stance cant seem to catch a glimmer of hope in the absence of growth; nor can the government seem to find a solution - apart from announcing that the UK is going to be a leader in AI (little realising that it may mount further pressure on the public sector workforce). Given the strong US economy; interest rate cuts both sides of the pond are going to be fairly muted in the near future and this could get ugly for the Pound if Donald Trump announces tarriffs. 1.18 is my conservative optimistic estimate (despite sounding bleak!) Good luck all!
Short
by amirkhan235
1
Sticky Inflation, Falling Pound, Pure Chaos in USD pairs!Last week was pure chaos. The dollar flexed like it’s been hitting the gym, while the pound? Let’s just say it’s practicing free-fall techniques. Sterling slipped so hard it might need a parachute soon. 🪂💸 Meanwhile, inflation is still that uninvited party guest who refuses to leave. UK CPI? Sticky. US CPI? Stubborn. And central banks? They’re in the corner pretending it’s not happening. 🙈📉 Here’s what we’re unpacking this week: 👉 Monday : ECB speeches. Expect fancy words, minimal action. 🙄 👉 Tuesday : US PPI drops. Prices rising faster than your blood pressure? Find out! 📈 👉 Wednesday : The big show. UK & US CPI—will inflation finally chill, or are we doomed to more rate drama? 🥶🔥 👉 Thursday : Aussie employment data hops in. Will it jumpstart the AUD? 🦘💵 👉 Friday : China’s GDP report. Rebound or flop? Either way, it’s gonna ripple through the markets. 🌏💣 George’s Hot Take: Dollar: Still the king. 👑💪 Sterling: In the doghouse. 🐶🚪 Inflation: Like gum on your shoe—it’s not going anywhere. 😤🥿 🎧 Tune in for all the market madness, trading insights, and just the right amount of sarcasm. Because hey, the markets don’t care about your feelings—but we’ll at least laugh about it with you. 😏 🎙️ Listen now and stay ahead of the curve! 🎧
Education
by RoadToAMillionClub
GBPUSD SELL TREND Hello Traders! GBP/USD is currently showing signs of a potential bearish setup. Here's the latest analysis: Analysis Overview: Sell Signal: The pair is aligning for a potential sell direction at the 1.21560 level. We’re seeing key technical signals indicating a possible breakdown. Technical Target: Based on current market conditions, the technical target for GBP/USD is 1.19016. If the bearish momentum continues, this could be the next key level where we might see further support or a reversal. Key Levels: Sell Zone: 1.21560 – A good area for potential short positions if price reaches this level. Target: 1.19016 – Watch this level closely for potential profit-taking or further downside continuation.
Short
by ALBERTGOLDHUNTER
GBP/USD: How Low Can It Go? With the British government taking a battering in the bond markets and stronger-than-expected US economic data, we explore how low GBP/USD could sink in the weeks ahead. A Crisis of Confidence: Weak UK Fiscal Plans Meet Strong US Data The recent slide in GBP/USD reflects a perfect storm of weak UK fiscal credibility and robust US economic performance. Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report showed 256,000 jobs were added in December, far exceeding expectations of 160,000. Combined with a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, this data underscores the resilience of the US economy and has led markets to price in higher-for-longer interest rates. The US Dollar, as a result, has surged, pushing the Dollar Index to a two-year high. Across the pond, the UK faces a credibility gap in its fiscal strategy under the Labour government. Rising gilt yields, now at their highest levels since 1998, mirror market scepticism over the sustainability of public finances. Concerns around higher borrowing costs and the potential for stagnation are exacerbated by the government's promise not to seek new borrowings for day-to-day expenses—a pledge that many view as increasingly untenable. While officials attempt to reassure markets, the lack of a cohesive plan is adding to the downward pressure on the Pound. 3 Technical Tools to Gauge How Low GBP/USD Might Fall GBP/USD has been under heavy selling pressure since September, carving out a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows on the daily candle chart. This prolonged downtrend has triggered a 'death cross,' where the 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average. While this lagging indicator is often seen as a signal of continued bearish momentum, it’s worth noting that it reflects the strength of the existing trend rather than predicting future moves. To gauge how low GBP/USD might fall, we’ve employed three key price action tools: 1. Descending Channel Drawing a descending channel around GBP/USD’s decline highlights the approximate volatility of the downtrend. The pair is currently nearing the lower boundary of this channel, suggesting a potential area where buyers might step in. GBP/USD Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 2. Relative Strength Index (RSI) The RSI has broken below 30, indicating oversold conditions. However, there is no bullish divergence—a signal that could suggest weakening bearish momentum—indicating the downtrend remains intact for now. GBP/USD Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results 3. Historical Inflection Points Looking left on the weekly candle chart reveals key support levels. GBP/USD is approaching the October 2023 lows. If this level fails to hold, the next significant supports lie at the March 2023 lows, followed by a steep drop toward the September 2022 lows. These levels represent critical areas where the pair could stabilise or reverse. GBP/USD Weekly Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Summary: GBP/USD remains firmly in bearish territory, with both fundamentals and technicals pointing to further downside risks. Traders can focus on key support levels, RSI divergence and candle patterns to determine the timing of any short-term bounce. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
by Capitalcom