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British Pound / U.S. Dollar

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GBPUSD trade ideas

GBPUSDFundamental Analysis of GBP/USD (February 2025) This analysis includes updated macroeconomic indicators, geopolitical factors, data from the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, possible scenarios, and a favorable scenario based on existing economic data. 1. Macroeconomic Indicators and Monetary Policy United Kingdom • GDP and Economic Growth: • The UK economy grew by 0.1% in Q4 2024, signaling a slight improvement in economic outlook. • Inflation: • Inflation is projected to reach 3.7% by autumn 2025, well above the 2% target set by the Bank of England (BoE). • BoE Monetary Policy: • In early February 2025, the BoE cut its interest rate from 4.75% to 4.50%, responding to weaker economic prospects and rising inflation expectations. • Unemployment and Labor Market: • The UK labor market remains fragile, with growing concerns about consumer demand and companies’ pricing power. United States • GDP and Economic Growth: • The US economy continues to expand at a strong pace, driven by robust consumer spending and a solid labor market. • Inflation: • US inflation remains above the 2% target, prompting the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain restrictive monetary policy. • Fed Monetary Policy: • In its latest FOMC meeting, the Fed held its benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, signaling a cautious stance on inflation dynamics. • Unemployment and Labor Market: • The US unemployment rate remains low, reflecting a strong labor market. 2. Geopolitical Factors • Trade Relations and Tariff Policies: • The US administration has threatened retaliatory tariffs on countries imposing import taxes on American goods. While the UK may be less vulnerable due to its trade surplus with the US, global trade uncertainty adds pressure on the British pound. • Fiscal Policies: • The US budget deficit and expansionary fiscal policies may influence the long-term strength of the US dollar. 3. Commitment of Traders (COT) Report - February 11, 2025 Non-Commercial Traders (Large Speculators): • Long Positions: 69,087 • Short Positions: 72,255 • Net Position: -3,168 (short on GBP) • Indicates a slightly bearish sentiment for the British pound, with large speculators expecting its depreciation. Commercial Traders (Hedgers): • Long Positions: 105,189 • Short Positions: 88,709 • Net Position: +16,480 (long on GBP) • Suggests that major institutions and corporations anticipate a long-term appreciation of the pound. Small Traders (Non-Reportable): • Long Positions: 4,735 • Short Positions: 3,363 • Net Position: +1,372 (long on GBP) • Indicates a moderately bullish sentiment among small traders. Interpretation: • Large speculators are net short on the pound, suggesting expectations of depreciation. • Commercial traders and small traders are net long, indicating a potential bullish correction for GBP in the long term. 4. Possible Scenarios for GBP/USD Scenario 1: USD Appreciation (Bearish for GBP/USD) • Triggers: • The Fed maintains high interest rates. • The US economy remains strong. • The BoE adopts a more accommodative (dovish) policy. • Outcome: • GBP/USD may fall below 1.23. Scenario 2: Consolidation (Sideways Movement) • Triggers: • Mixed economic data from both economies. • The Fed and BoE adopt a wait-and-see approach. • Outcome: • GBP/USD remains between 1.25 and 1.28. Scenario 3: GBP Appreciation (Bullish for GBP/USD) • Triggers: • The BoE delays or limits further rate cuts. • The US economy shows signs of slowing, prompting Fed rate cut signals. • Reduced global trade tensions improve market sentiment toward the pound. • Outcome: • GBP/USD may rise above 1.30 - 1.32. 5. Favorable Scenario Based on Current Data Given macroeconomic data, COT positioning, and geopolitical factors, the medium-term favorable scenario for GBP/USD is one of consolidation, with potential GBP appreciation. • Reasons: • Large speculators are short on GBP, but hedgers and small traders are long, indicating potential for a reversal. • The UK economy shows slight improvement despite ongoing risks. • If the Fed signals a dovish shift, the US dollar could weaken, supporting GBP/USD. • Target: • GBP/USD may test 1.28 - 1.30 in the coming months. 6. Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The Forex market is volatile, and trading decisions should be based on individual research and analysis. Any losses resulting from the use of this analysis are the sole responsibility of the investor.
by SkylimitBreakPoint
GBP/USD Breaks Key Resistance: Targeting 1.2800 GBP/USD is trading at approximately 1.2580. Your target price of 1.2800 suggests an anticipated upward movement of over 200 pips, indicating a bullish outlook. The pair has recently broken above a significant resistance level, and the next key resistance is identified at 1.2800, which could potentially act as a barrier and prompt a downward correction. Technical analysis reveals that GBP/USD has exited a multi-month downtrend, with the January rebound extending nearly 4.4% from the yearly low. This upward momentum suggests potential for further gains; however, traders should be cautious as the 1.2800 resistance level may trigger selling pressure, leading to a possible retracement. Fundamentally, the UK's economic landscape is experiencing shifts. Inflation is expected to rise to 2.8% in January, influenced by factors such as the introduction of VAT on private school fees and increased airfares. This follows the Bank of England's recent 25 basis point rate cut, aimed at stimulating economic activity. Conversely, the U.S. economy shows resilience, with strong economic data suggesting that further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are unlikely. In summary, while the GBP/USD pair exhibits bullish momentum with a potential target of 1.2800, traders should remain vigilant. The 1.2800 resistance level may serve as a critical point, possibly leading to a downward correction. Monitoring upcoming economic data releases and central bank communications will be essential in making informed trading decisions.
Long
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
1
GBPUSD POTENTIAL SHORT OPPORTUNITYHello Everyone! How are you all? GbpUsd is a pair to watch this week, because it is shaping up very nicely for a bearish trend continuation that we can capitalize on. So, I will be looking for a sell continuation because of the following reasons: 1. The overall trend is bearish 2. The price has formed a continuation structure. 3. The price is approached the value area. Game Plan: If the price bearish impulse followed by a 15mins flag with two highs and lows. Entry : will look for a risk sell entry within the flag or a reduced risk entry on the breakout of the flag.
Short
by DTreasureMarketHub
Looking at this GBP/USD 1-hour chart: Looking at this GBP/USD 1-hour chart: 1. Supertrend Indicator Analysis: The Supertrend indicator (10,3) is green, showing that the price is in an uptrend. This suggests that buyers are currently in control. The Supertrend works as dynamic support and resistance. In this case, the green line can be seen as a support level. As long as the price stays above this line, the bullish momentum is intact. --- 2. Demand Zone and Support Levels: Demand Zone: The highlighted area below Support 2 indicates a strong buying zone. Price has previously rebounded sharply from this area, meaning buyers are likely to step in if the price revisits this zone. Support 1: This is an intermediate support level. If the price pulls back slightly, it may find support here before continuing higher. It's a good zone to watch for bullish price action patterns like pin bars or engulfing candles. Support 2: This level is stronger than Support 1, as it coincides with the demand zone. A deeper retracement to this level would still keep the overall bullish bias intact. --- 3. Rising Channel: The ascending channel indicates that the price is making higher highs and higher lows, a characteristic of an uptrend. Key Levels to Watch: A breakout above the channel's upper boundary could signal an acceleration in the uptrend, opening the door for further bullish targets. A break below the channel's lower boundary could mean the price will retrace further, potentially toward Support 1 or the demand zone. --- 4. Key Resistance Zone: The price is approaching the 1.25696 resistance level, which aligns with the upper boundary of the ascending channel. If the price struggles to break above this level, it could signal a short-term pullback. However, a strong breakout with high volume could suggest further upside potential. --- 5. Trade Ideas: Bullish Scenario: Pullback Entry: If the price pulls back to Support 1 or the lower boundary of the channel, look for bullish candlestick patterns (e.g., hammer or bullish engulfing) for a long entry. Breakout Entry: If the price breaks and closes above the 1.25696 resistance, enter a buy position targeting the next significant resistance (likely 1.2600-1.2650 range). Bearish Scenario (Short-Term Correction): If the price breaks below the lower boundary of the channel, expect a pullback toward Support 2 or the demand zone. In this case, short-term selling opportunities might arise. --- 6. Risk Management: Use a stop-loss below Support 1 or the demand zone (depending on your entry). Target a reward-to-risk ratio of at least 2:1. Be cautious of fundamental events (e.g., U.S. or U.K. economic data) that could cause volatility in GBP/USD.
by mrsagarfx
GBPUSD analysis week 7🌐Fundamental Analysis The US dollar is under heavy selling pressure, opening the door for GBP/USD to rise as risk-on flows dominate financial markets. US President Donald Trump refrained from announcing new reciprocal tariffs on Thursday, instead explaining that he has tasked his economic team with drawing up plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on every country that taxes US imports, triggering a risk-on rally. At press time, US stock index futures were trading sideways on the day. Should major Wall Street indices open on a bullish note and continue higher into the weekend, GBP/USD could extend its weekly gains. 🕯Technical Analysis GBPUSD is pulling back to 1.250 and is looking for some buying interest towards the 1.272 resistance. The support at 1.250 is supported by two EMAs and a trendline. This trading range is the focus next week and it is quite difficult to break this trading range. 📈📉Trading Signals BUY GBPUSD 1.250-1.248 Stoloss 1.245 SELL GBPUSD 1.272-1.274 Stoploss 1.277
by TVS-Trader
GBPUSD is in the Buying Direction after Testing SupportHello Traders In This Chart GBPUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today GBPUSD analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (GBPUSD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on GBPUSD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Long
by ForexMasters2000
GBPUSD Feb 10 to 14 Week in reviewGBPUSD Feb 10 to 14 Week in review Price is in a Premium on the weekly and daily. I suspect that we are in a bull market. NOTE-GU is showing more strength than EU due to breaking key highs, EU has not done that yet. Price has been threading on the 50 level since Jan 25. Finally this week Price left the 50 level the energetic force. On Tuesday Price bounced off the .618. Price ran a sell stop raid to then bull run for the rest of the week wicking through key buy stops. Not quite breaking institutional structure however showing signs we might. Week ahead idea If my bias is bull I want to focus on taking longs and reading if and where Price will short. If the short meets my criteria of my model I might consider it, however I want to be adaptable to what price is delivering and sticking to my rules. I suspect that we could see a raid on sell stops at the 50 level rebalancing Thursdays inefficient delivered Price. Setting up for a long. That said Price has another ket buy stop that it could run to first part of the week. Be nimble-no more pre market look as it is creating this stiffness in my analysis. Building out the day from the perspective of this happens I will do that and if that happens I will do that. Follow your rules as follows: -Liquidity is taken -Bias is bull-longs would be better sets ups -Macro entries only -Limit orders only-with placed price-stop loss-take profits with partials -Mark out measured moved ranges -MOG entries -first presented FVG entries -Trust your analysis -mark every trade win or fail Strength is built in discipline and paper trade only this week, until you can build your confidence again.
by LeanLena
GbpUsd could continue its reboundAfter breaking above the falling trendline from the end of January, GBP/USD has entered a consolidation phase between 1.23 and 1.25. Recently, the pair tested the support zone once more and began to rebound. In my opinion, the upward movement will continue, and we could see a test of the next resistance above 1.26. In conclusion, I am looking to buy dips below 1.24, with invalidation occurring on a daily close below 1.23. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
GBP.USD Longs from 1.25600 back upI expect GBP/USD to continue its bullish momentum and push higher. Following the previous break of structure, I am looking for price to mitigate the 2-hour demand zone to maintain this upward trend. If price does not react from this level, I have also identified a 3-hour demand zone as a secondary point of interest. If price reacts bullishly from either of these zones, my next selling opportunity will be at the refined 1-hour supply zone around 1.26600. Once price reaches this level, I will look for signs of distribution to confirm a potential short setup. Confluences for GU Buys: - For price to continue higher, it must mitigate a strong demand zone to gain momentum. - Liquidity remains above, providing a natural target for price. - The higher time frame trend is still bullish. - Clean 2-hour, 3-hour, and 11-hour demand zones are in close proximity. - DXY has been bearish, which aligns with this bullish GU outlook. P.S. If price drops instead, I have an extreme discounted zone marked at the 11-hour demand zone at the bottom as a potential long entry.
Long
by Hassan_fx
GU Ascends From Triangle - Breakout & Retest Set-UpFX:GBPUSD ended last week with a Bullish Price Breakout of the Ascending Triangle that it fell into after breaking down below Support-Turned-Resistance and finding Support at the October 2023 Lows last month. Overall indicators suggest we could be experiencing a Valid Breakout of this pattern due to: 1) Strong Breaker Bar with Close outside of Range 2) Based on the Range from High to Low of the Ascending Triangle, Price made a 26% move beyond the break 3) Bullish Volume following Break 4) RSI Above 50 The Confirmation of Valid Break will come if price is able to: 1) Close 3 - 5 Days outside of pattern 2) Price successfully is Supported by Previous Structure Broken 3) Bullish Volume Builds on Retest When the Breakout is Validated, Buying opportunities could be delivered in the ( 1.2525 - 1.2485 ) Range on the retest with an immediate Target Profit at the December 2024 Resistance laying overhead at the ( 1.28 - 1.29 ) Range Fundamentally, this month we saw BOE make a 25bps rate cut down to 4.50% with GBP having quite a positive increase in GDP (+.3%) which could be inflationary. USD showed a slight uptick in CPI (+.1% y/y) strengthening the stance on minimal Rate Cutes this year but a big miss in Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims and Non-Farm Employment! GBP: Tuesday - Claimont Count Change/ BOE Gov. Bailey Speaks Wednesday - CPI Thursday - Consumer Confidence Friday - Retail Sales/ Flash Manufacturing PMI/ Flash Services PMI USD: Monday - Presidents Day (Bank Holiday) Tuesday - Empire State Manufacturing Index Wednesday - FOMC Meeting Minutes Thursday - Unemployment Claims/ Philly Fed Manufacturing Index/ Crude Oil Inventories Friday - Flash Manufacturing PMI/ Flash Services PMI/ Existing Home Sales
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
6
GBP/USD: Bulls in Control… For Now! Key Levels to Watch Hello Folks GBP/USD is holding strong above 1.2533, and I see a potential bullish move toward 1.2805 if momentum continues. But I’m staying flexible—if price breaks below 1.2450, my bias shifts, and I’ll look for downside targets instead. 📊 📍 Here’s how I see it: ✅ Bullish above: 1.2533 → 1.2627 → 1.2650 → 1.2805 🚀 ❌ Bearish shift below: 1.2450 → 1.2378 👀 💡 My Plan: As long as GBP/USD stays above 1.2533, I’m bullish and expecting a push toward 1.2805 📈 If price drops below 1.2450, I’ll reconsider and look for shorts instead 📉 ⚠️ No need to rush—let the market confirm the move!
Long
by QuantumFusion
GBPUSDThe upcoming economic events, specifically the Claimant Count Change and Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey's speech, are likely to influence the GBP/USD trade directional bias for the week ahead. Key Events and Their Potential Impact Claimant Count Change: What It Is: This report measures the change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the UK. A decrease in claims typically indicates a strengthening labor market, which can boost the currency. Forecast: If the claimant count shows a smaller increase or a decrease compared to previous figures, it could support the British Pound (GBP) against the U.S. Dollar (USD), potentially pushing GBP/USD higher. BOE Governor Bailey's Speech: Bailey's comments can provide insights into the BOE's monetary policy direction, particularly regarding interest rates and inflation expectations. Market Reaction: If Bailey signals a hawkish stance or hints at potential rate hikes, it could strengthen the GBP as traders anticipate tighter monetary policy. Conversely, a dovish tone may weaken the GBP. The combination of labor market data and central bank commentary will play a crucial role in determining the GBP/USD directional bias next week. Positive labor market data and hawkish signals from Bailey could lead to a bullish sentiment for GBP/USD, while disappointing data or dovish comments could result in downward pressure on the pair. we will watch closely these developments for potential trading opportunities.
by Shavyfxhub